Buying some puts in this name

Last week, I detailed the Apollo analysis for you guys. Today, I’ve been putting in some bids on some May 2012 puts with strike prices in the mid $40s right now.  I think APOL’s near-term earnings report, which will come in early January, is unlikely to spur much upside, but this isn’t a short-term bet and it’s not even an earnings-bet per se. We’re short the for-profit educator because it’s making billions off taxpayer money funding tuition for people not getting an education worth the money (assuming the education/diploma from its schools are worth anything at all, which they really aren’t. It’s hard enough getting a job with a degree and justifying the expenses you pay to get educated at a state university or even an Ivy League school right now.) Anyway, I’m much more confident in saying that APOL’s likely to be MUCH lower in two years than it is today rather than saying it’s going to be much lower in two weeks or two months. I think we’ll need to trade and set up our bets accordingly.