Chat Transcript for Apr 11, 2012: JNPR, GOOG, FIO, Apple suppliers and much more

Here’s the transcript of today’s chat. See you next week at 2pm EST at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat for more Q&A where you can ask me anything.

Let’s rock n roll! Ask me anything.

Q. Dear Cody, I read your latest book with lot of attention, as usual. I found it very inspiring. 1 small REMARK: with reference to MOLX, ABB is a Swiss conglomerate, not a Swedish one. 1 COMMENT: it seems that you like BRCM, FIO, QCOM much more than the others. 2 QUESTIONS :a) Do you consider correct entry points at: BRCM 34-35; FIO 23-24; QCOM just below 60? [very important for me given that I cannot play with options] b) Why did you not rather include other interesting names like CRUS, SWKS, OVTI ?
A. Wow, good stuff! Okay 1. Oops, I still sometimes call it a Swedish Buffet and a Swiss Meatball…I also get Meg Ryan and Melanie Griffith completely backwards. 2. Yes, I like those 3 the best out of the 10 in the book, though LVLT is way up there too. I tried to find the companies that will benefit from Apple growth the most, hopefully a lot of those stocks will reflect that. 3. a) Entry points are always a tough call. I expect that all 3 of BRCM, QCOM and FIO have more upside in them over the next couple years at least, but as always, I suggest using scales and starting small and then building your position over time on weakness. b) I had to narrow it down to 10 to get a Top 10 list…it’s like those old ESPN TOP X shows where they’d immediately follow the show with a debate on why certain games/events/plays didn’t make it and others did.

Q. Cody with this correction happening is it possible that JNPR could be the new leader?
A. Interesting thought about Juniper….with Internet traffic going up like 18730-fold in the next three years or whatever the estimates are, Juniper’s likely to finally catch some meaningful traction in the fundamentals…it’s not moved at all vs. our big gains in Cisco…hmm, I’ll take a look at Juniper afresh this weekend.

Q. Cody, I just think a new leader has to be hated and crushed. Who’s more hated than JNPR?
A. I’m happy to see that you’re looking for the most-hated and crushed good tech stock rather than the most-loved and through-the-roof good tech stock. Timing will be key though. I’m all over this JNPR concept though and will let you know what we come up with.

Q. What’s your thoughts on GOOG going into earnings? The estimated have come down significantly, do you think even at these levels it will pop?
A. Like I said in the earlier post this morning, I’d rather be long than short Google heading into earnings from both a short-term and a long-term perspective. I might even buy some GOOG calls before the call. Not going to force it though. Let’s see what the pitches look like as the come.

Q. do you see any chance for RVBD to recover in next 6/9 months?  When are you going to get rid of it, like CY?
A. I think RVBD can come back and come back big and that’s why it remains a long. It’s a very different beast than Cypress and has much more control over its destiny because its technology is much more software and hardware-based and sold to enterprises than Cypress, which mostly sells chips and chipsets that go into phones, cars, ovens, etc.

Q. Hi, cody your take on AAPL and GOOG earnings?
A. Feet to fire — and that’s all this is…a feet-to-fire-guess, okay? I think Apple will have huge iPhone 4S and iPad 3 numbers—say 10% above estimates on both. Topline and bottomline numbers will be good, but maybe not enough to make everybody rework their models and that would mean that the stock is likely topping for the near-term around here. I think that Google will beat on the top and bottom lines and talk up Android growth and mobile prospects and that’ll probably make the stock go up for the near-term. Such guesses are NOT INVESTING and not how I’ve made my money for my investors over the years, though it is important to think everything about the near-term through as we invest for the long-term.

Q. Cody – great service – any chance of having a summary table of your trades for the month. This dashboard look would help when one doesn’t have the time to troll back through your emails. Your advice in all market conditions is sound and rational unlike the talking heads on CNBC.
A. I like the idea of a doing a monthly table that summarizes my recent trades, that will be helpful for readers both new and old. We’ll do that at the end of April. Bill, please make a note!

Q. Hey C.W., any thoughts on FIO for earnings and oh by the way thanks for the tee, looks great.
A. No thoughts on FIO into earnings, really. It’s just such a new company, new concept, new market, that it won’t be a smooth ride straight up and near-term guesses about volatile, exploding new marketplaces like FIO’s is awfully tough.

Q. Cody, assuming AAPL has a decent quarter – is now a good time to start positioning in those 3 favorite stocks? It seems they’d benefit as much if not more should AAPL do well, yes?
A. IF IF IF Apple has a huge quarter and IF IF IF the market responds to that quarter positively and IF IF IF traders derive the Apple boom down to the suppliers I’ve highlighted immediately, then yes…BUT let’s not get ahead of ourselves or panic ourselves into chasing them. You can step into a little bit of your favorite 3 or 4 suppliers before Apple reports earnings this quarter and then do a little more after.

Q. Cody, how do you see the DOJ suit affecting AAPL both in the short term and the long term?
A. It absolutely blows my mind that the DoJ is wasting time and money going after a disruptive technology that’s cutting the prices of books for everybody already and will continue to unless the government gets in there and puts in all kinds of protections and gimmicks to protect their corporate interests/donors…anyway, I don’t think the DoJ Apple book publishing lawsuit really will matter much to Apple either in the short-term or the long-term. Sure there will be 2-3% down days that will be blamed on DoJ headlines, but it’s not the primary driver of the stock and I highly doubt it ever will be.

Q. Seems to me that sometimes you get the business idea right but the stock gets swept up in the hysteria of the group that it is in. I am referring to LPS. Perhaps the business hasn’t changed but in the rush to own financials over the last 3 months LPS has ridden that wave as well and is up 50% or whatever. Would love you to comment on that and revisit that short. THanks
A. We made and took some huge profits on LPS as it fell from $35 to $13 and as the headlines/regulatory environment suddenly started changing in LPS’ and the banksters’ favors, I stepped out of the way other than having added to my LPS puts one time in the early rounds of the shift. Anyway, I was wrong not to have covered it entirely and/or even getting long the damn stock as the “frenzy”, as you put it, hit. But readers/subscribers who were more aggressive about taking my advice on the headline/regulatory shift early did better than I. And yes, sometimes, the markets will, for months or even quarters, not reward my analysis, even when it’s fundamentally correct. I’ve learned that lesson many times as any body who’s ever traded has and I will continue to do my best to give you both the best fundamental analysis with my trading/markets/near-term analysis. I won’t be perfect in my picks, in my timing, or in my execution though. And I won’t pretend to be.

Q. Can you give any insights on SWI?
A. SWI is in a great spot and I’ve reached out to management there, but I’ve never gotten comfortable with it enough to buy it. What do you have on it, Patrick?

Q. ur views on bidu short term and long term..
A. I’ve got no view on BIDU near-term, but for the long-term, it’s a must-own tech company for anybody who’s got the guts to own a non-US-based Chinese corporation.

Q. Given your long term confidence in SNDK, and how far it’s fallen this last week, is it a good time to buy common and long term calls? Do you think SNDK will be dead money for awhile?
A. Ask about the same stock but in a totally different way, huh? I am much closer to the logic in @asm’s question than in @doug’s question because I do think SNDK will be a triple digit stock in a couple years from now, but I also see the logic in @doug’s question because SNDK just warned and its customers, Nokia, RIMM and Motorola suck. That said, the secular growth of flash won’t be stopped and SNDK is a pureplay on that growth, so I’m sticking with it for the long-term and if you don’t have a position in it yet, I’d absolutely start buying and/or adding to it now and then continue to do so if you get the chance at lower prices.

Q. Do you feel the correction into earnings was what U were looking for as most stocks down 5-30% with beta names being down the most of that % 15-30 liek FFIX SNDK<FIO<LVLT etc
A. Yes, that was just about what I was looking for as far as the correction is concerned. That said, let’s see how earnings play out this week before we assume that we’ve put in a near-term bottom. We could bounce near these levels for a week or two just to shake out both the weakhanded bulls and weakhanded bears. Regardless, I think the markets headed much higher as the year wears on, no matter what the next two weeks might bring.

Q. What breed is your dog Cody?
A. Lobo is an Australian Cattle Dog mutt that I rescued from North Shore Animal League after Mya the pop star came on my Fox TV show with a few sample puppies. He’s my best friend and he changed my life for the better in so many ways. Here’s Lobo doing some tricks at a dog run in NYC: http://youtu.be/Zlz-BBJ7kbc Here’s Lobo trying to eat flying wood chips as we clear my land: http://youtu.be/Y0xPnD6ajHs And here’s Lobo at a charity event for animalleague.org: /content/images/img-get/I0000lqMLkDjfXMY/s/750/750/7333-cody-willard-lobo.jpg Go adopt a dog today!

Okay guys, great questions and thanks for all the kind words too. I’ve got a couple analyst calls I want to jump on here before the close and I’ll see you back here tomorrow with more on Google and its earnings report. Thanks and don’t forget to tell anybody you know who’s serving in our military that they can get a subscription to TradingWithCody.com simply by reaching out to us. And thank you to all the soldiers already subscribing to our service reading this overseas right now.