Cody Analysis for: Earnings, Election, Fiscal Cliff, Technicals and Sentiment
The Price is Right – $1 Showcase overbid.
Late last week I asked you guys who’s more scared right now, the bulls or the bears. The results were:
109 – Bulls
44 – Bears
So, it was about 70% who said that the bulls are more scared right now. That’s not an extreme reading on the “Who’s More Scared” scale, but it’s getting there. When 90% of more of the respondents agree on the bulls being the most scared, it can be a great contrarian indicator to buy. And vice versa for when the bears are 90%. The markets are trying to rally today, but most technicians would tell you that it needs AAPL to kick in with some gusto if a broader rally is to stick. Why they would all agree on that and whether they are right are different questions altogether.
Regardless, there is at least a different, more bullish bid to the markets so far today and as we enter earnings season in gusto this week, we’ll soon see if the market has overcorrected to the downside and whether we’ll be stepping in for some pre-earnings report gambles/trades this week and next.
Lots of cross-currents are hitting the markets with earnings, election, fiscal cliff dead horse kicking, and technicals all reflected in that 70% bulls/30% bears fear indicator. None of them are quite hitting the markets just now, but all are about to catalyze in each of their own particular manner. My thoughts:
Earnings – For tech and much of our portfolio should be just fine and/or stronger than expected. Broader market earnings are iffy.
Election – The markets probably want Obomney (Romney) and not Robama (Obama) for whatever reason, so for the very short-term Romney-lead=bullish and Obama=neutral to the markets.
Fiscal cliff – It’s a meaningless distraction of a headline of a dead horse, but it will be kicked around and worried about into and after the election. In the end, the Republican/Democrat Regime will come to an eventual so-called bipartisan (uni-partisan) bill that will include lots of stimulus/bailouts/welfare for the biggest corporations and banks in the country.
Technicals – The market technicals topped out and the oft-cited bearish head-and-shoulders breach that AAPL’c chart went through near the $650 level all at the same time were…well, bearish, it turns out. Great hindsight in those technicals. The market needs to stabilize and/or turn up on some decent volume to get the TA guys back on board. That’s sort of like saying that you’ll have a lot more competition selling straw hats when the sun is shining so take the technicals for what they’re worth.
Sentiment – As I’d said above, it’s mildly bullish right now, with the bulls more scared than the bears, but not by a panicky majority, which is when sentiment can really be a great contra-indicator.
In sum — Wait for the right prices, they’re a’coming.
