Cody Kiss & Tell: What to look for at the top and a festival of stock questions
Here is the transcript to this week’s Live Q&A chat. Join me next Wednesday at 2pm EST at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat or send me an email with your question at support@tradingwithcody.com.
Hi everybody and welcome to The Chat. Ask me anything and I’ll do my best to give an insightful answer.
Q. You acknowledge that we’re in a bubble that keeps inflating. What “red flags” will you be looking for to indicate this “bubble” is about to pop?
A. Absolutely insightful question as you framed it. Thank you for asking it. Every cycle is different and this one is “more different” than any other, what with all the globally-coordinated movement to maximize corporate profits and the ongoing 0% interest rates and QEInfinity and etc. Some signs that I will be looking for include: *a freeze-up and spike in interest rates, especially for banks in the “private” market *spreading of social unrest from Middle East westward into Europe *Another round of financial crisis, probably stemming from Europe *China political and economic crises *New warfronts between developed economies in addition to the ongoing and escalating global currency war they are already engaged in.
Thank you so much. Love your service and insight.
Amen! I am not into hero worship yet you deserve mucho kudos.
Thank you both so much for the kind words. I work my butt off and its nice to hear that kind of feedback from you guys.
Q. Welcome back atcha. Re $TQNT — first of all, THANKS for all of that; had you ever contemplated that merger? Moving forward, I know you want to give it time to see if the merged company will do well, will be acquired, etc. But in the interim, even with the blip up recently, do you see any short worthiness on $TQNT?
A. I’d mentioned in my write-ups that I thought Triquint was a potential takeover target, but I thought it would have been an Intel or a Broadcom or a bigger company looking to horizontally integrate $TQNT‘s baseband business into their own. I don’t think I’d try to short $TQNT or $RFMD here because there’s still a possibility that one of those bigger aforementioned semiconductor companies like $INTC or $BRCM does come in with a higher bid than the current merger prices.
Thanks!
Q. What’s your best choice to invest the proceeds of $TQNT?
A. I’d just suggest starting slowly with maybe 1/3 of your $TQNT proceeds into one of my highest rated or most recently-bought stocks such as $JDSU, $INVN or $SNDK or such.
Thank you very much!
Q. Hi, where are you putting some of the $TQNT money? Thanks, great hit!
A. That TQNT was a sweet little ride, wasn’t it? Don’t rush into a new buy with your proceeds. Just start scaling into some of the most revolutionary stocks you want to own, slowly but surely.
Q. How far up do you think $TSLA will go, and when would you consider shorting it?
A. In a bubble-blowing bull market with 0% interest rates and desperate savers looking for gains on their money and with the momentum that Elon Musk’s name and Tesla itself have going for it…not to mention the $6k welfare checks Tesla car buyers get for purchasing one and the carbon credit trading scams that Tesla’s mastered…well, it could go to $400 or $500 before it truly pops, I guess. Near-term, it sure looks like $TSLA had a blow-off top today. I am likely to look to buy a few Tesla puts if it ends red on the day.
Q. I might have picked a short term tesla top with the puts I bought but does this company interest you to buy at some point? Or are the fundamentals so disconnected from the stock price its not attractive.. Would it be attractive to purchase some long $TSLA shares at any point to you basically?
A. If $TSLA Tesla had to sell their cars at full retail price with no subsidies for the company or its customers or its carbon-credit trading scams, it would be losing money hand over fist. I don’t like investments that require welfare from taxpayers to work out. It’s also called “fascism” according to the true definition of the term.
Cody I agree with your thoughts on $TSLA however this talk about Battery innovation and the potential that sales of battery power can have is in fact exciting if its true.
A. I told some people on Scutify the other day who were bullish on $TSLA to “Wake me when they can figure out a business model that doesn’t require fleecing the taxpayer”.
Q. Hi Cody, What are your thoughts on $BBRY at present levels? Are you considering re-entering as a short or put position?
A. If $BBRY got up into the teens, I think it’d probably be a good idea to nibble on some $10 or $8 or so long-term puts. But it certainly could get bubbly in this market before its next crash.
Q. Same questions re: $APOL: What are your thoughts at present levels? Are you considering re-entering as a short or put position?
A. I have to say that with $APOL back up here above $30 it has again piqued my interest. I’ll let you guys know if and when I re-short some more. Remember that my initial short entry on APOL was when it was near $55 or so.
Q. Yahoo ($YHOO)!?? Alibaba stake like a floor?
A. Yeah, that seems to be the case. And I still can’t get over the fact that you can by valuation it’s almost two $YHOOs for one $PCLN.
Q. Any thoughts on Yahoo ($YHOO)? I bought at 16 trimmed some at 42 and still holding the rest.
A. Great trade/investment with that $16 entry on $YHOO. I think it’s dead money for now until they figure out how to grow revenues faster than GDP at some point.
Thanks for your thoughts on $YHOO.
Q. Why do you like $JDSU?
A. $JDSU is a “stealthy” way to play drones (hahah!) and the optical component business is finally rationalized and in a serious upswing cycle as carriers work to upgrade their networks.
Q. Cody, is $MU still a buy?
A. $MU‘s ability to improve margins and grow profits by having rationalized their industry with rolling up their competitors, they make a good test case for what the potential of $RFMD/$TQNT merger will have. Certainly $MU‘s gotten profitable and the outlook is better than its been in years. I think it’s too late in the cycle to try to catch it up here and I don’t like $MU as much as I like, say, $SNDK long-term anyway.
Thanks, Cody!
Q. What’s your current read on $BKS (Barnes & Noble) pst ER? Anything short-able about it? That recent tentative offer to buy seems to be from a tiny company, unable to pull the financing off. (Both outsiders and $BKS management say that.)
A. Tough to bet on a failed bid as your catalyst.
Q. Beyond the failed bid — company as a whole, you still think $BKS is’essentially doomed? You used to.
A. Yes, I think it’s a good bet that tomorrow’s $BKS stock and fundamentals will reflect today’s $JCP stock and fundamentals.
Q. Cody, do you think $INTC will get any traction with $AAPL?
A. If Intel’s next gen mobile chips are good enough, Apple will switch to $INTC in a heart beat for a supplier.
Q. Then is now the time to scale into $INTC? I read an interesting article on SeekingAlpha about the end of Moore’s Law when we get to 5nm, with INTC being the first to get there in about 4 years and it not being worth the spend for anyone else to follow. Any thoughts?
A. Yes, I’m long $INTC and think it’s a great risk/reward long-term play on next gen tablets/mobile/wearables. Better yield on $INTC stock than on Treasuries to boot.
Thanks and congrats on the little one – sleepless nights?
A. No, no sleep. Wifey has it worse than me too.
Q. I believe $BIDU is reporting tonight and the Street seems bullish. Do you still follow that stock?
A. I’ve not been as on top of $BIDU‘s fundamental trends as I used to be when I owned it, but I still think it’s a good long-term play on the China mobile communications and apps and web and what not for China. Stock chart ain’t bad either, and if the report is great, in this environment, the stock would pop big, I would expect. No feet to fire call for you that I feel comfortable giving – push the coals closer to my soles and maybe I’ll give you a forced call on it and that wouldn’t be a good idea either though.
Q. I saw your comment “perhaps this is finally a final scare to finally finalize the bottom in the metals?”. Do you mean we can start scaling into $GLD, $SLV etc.?
A. Depends on your time frame. I think there might be one last manipulated trashing of gold prices and silver prices by the big banks and the metal exchanges, maybe over the next month, to try to get one more panic in the gold holders to puke out some physical gold into the markets. Mid- and long-term I think gold is headed to $3,000 and then at least onto $10,000 before I die.
Uno mas question.
Q. Are you selling your bitcoins or keeping it or long term after all this mtgox thing? Thanks for your answer on metals and gold question.
A. Like I’d said when it was above and near $1000 per bitcoin, I gave away a bunch, used a bunch for purchasing Christmas gifts and otherwise donated a few to charities too. I’ve still got huge gains, up 8x from my purchase price on what I have left of my bitcoins I received from subscribers and/or that I bought when it was below $100 per bitcoin and I’m holding the stuff I’ve got left.
Okay subbies, thank you! See ya on the flipside.
