All

Trade Alert: Here’s the playbook

It’s another ugly open, and everybody expects the close to be even worse, since they assume nobody wants to buy before the weekend. I think people were thinking that yesterday already and that means maybe everybody who wanted to sell before the weekend already has. Good thing we aren’

All

Trade Alert: Getting a little longer as the market panics

Fear is palpable. Panic is in the air. Stock markets down 10% in a week. Headlines blaring fearful news. Time to nibble. Time to cover some shorts. With the DJIA down another 800 points today as I type this, I’m covering 15-20% of most of my short index hedges

All

What The Headlines Will Say About Coronavirus In A Month

The DJIA tried to rally and got up a full 450 points…before falling 600 points from that level and is now down 150 points as I write this. Even as I’d been so cautious and defensive and I’d warned repeatedly about how the market should not be

All

Trade Alert: Nibbling, covering and being cool when others panic

Well, we’d spent the last two or three weeks trimming, selling and hedging to try to prepare for the kind of sell-off the markets are now going through. I’m kicking myself for not having pulled more triggers on short ideas with China’s major trading partners, as I’

All

Why aren’t economists/traders worried about COVID-19?, Bitcoin’s a real thing, Gold’s next move and much more

I had two main takeaways from the panel I hosted at the CFA Austin annual dinner where the topic was The US and China: When Two Global Economies Collide: 1. Nobody on the panel seemed to be very concerned about COVID-19 and the potential longer-term market/economic ramifications that might

All

Remain Cautious: Apple blames COVID-19 for miss

Happy President’s Day. Apple says coronavirus effects will cause revenues to fall short of guidance That’s not good news, but we were quite preparing for this weren’t we? Also, we’ll have to see just how big the market reaction will be to this news tomorrow. Futures

All

COVID 19, Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin (and Trade Alert: Trim some SPCE!)

Before we jump into the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat, I’ll just mention that it’s not normal to buy a stock and have it go up 300% in three months. (TSLA) and (SPCE) are literally up 4x from their lows last year. You’

All

Strategies For A Bubble-Blowing Bull Market Rally On Steroids

Gravity can’t keep me in place, Gravity won’t let them escape, Gravity still laughs in my face. – The Muddy Souls What’s driving this latest rally that’s gone into overdrive in our long-going Bubble-Blowing Bull Market? Let’s analyze and strategize. It’s essentially a gravitational force

All

Earnings season, Sanders vs Trump, Monopolies and much more

I had a very productive and interesting three days in NYC. Lots of meetings, running around the city, learning and networking. See pics below. Here’s the transcript for this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Stay vigilant out there. Q. Are you tempted to trim the Chinese holdings

All

Coronavirus Ramifications and Why It’s Still a Good Time to Be Cautious

The markets today are acting like: “What coronavirus?” as the major indices bounce about 1%. Oh, and then there’s Tesla TSLA TESLA(!) up another [checks screen, rubs eyes, doubles checks screen] 20% today and up more than 250% from where we loading up on it as my favorite pick

All

Selling it all, Uber vs Lyft, Chiefs by 30, Space Revolution Loser and much more

Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Not much fear in the chat room and that sometimes makes me a little bit worried. Q. Do you think there will be decent pullback? (Different from panicky sell off). A. At some point, definitely. Whether that

Trade Alert: Getting a bit more defensive

Good morning and welcome back to the circus. Coronavirus has gotten worse in the last two days, but the markets are looking past it for now, as I’d expected them to. However, after doing the Latest Positions round up and looking at our returns already this year, I’m