Subscriber Chat Room Archive (December 12th – December 18th)
Here is the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 7:21 am
7:05 am Ciena misses by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs ~in-line; transfers listing to NYSE from NASDAQ. Stock down 10.7% or $2.46 to 20.44
Golfcar101
December 12, 2013 – 7:35 am
seems typical over reaction to cien er
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 8:07 am
FWIW- Apple – The tech giant won a victory over rival Samsung in a South Korean court, which refused to ban the sale of older iPhone and iPad models in that country. Samsung had claimed those devices infringed on several of its patents.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 8:08 am
Someone asked on yesterday 2pm chat about shorting Yahoo: Yahoo lifts price target, EPS at UBS DEC 12, 2013 | 7:52 AM EST YHOO raised its numbers, UBS said. Driven by Stream Ads and early stages of Tumbly monetization. $46 price target and Buy rating.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 8:30 am
Home Depot CEO comments on the NEW CREE lightbulb last night: the Cree bulb that last 22 years he says “you have to include in your will” . Cree has SAT there trying to form that LONg 2nd leg of a W bottom, lets see if anyone takes any notice to repeated greta selling and great reviews about their comments between here and new year.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 8:54 am
Cien was down 12% in pre market and now down just 7%. Lets see codys response as it hi near his 20 buy point. Meanwhile cramers fund states this and is buying more shares in the pre market: We’ll add 1,000 shares, which have a bid/ask of $20.33/$20.35, ahead of the conference call. We see the reaction as overdone, especially on a blowout revenue number and record backlog. Fiscal 4Q earnings missed consensus by 8 cents a share and came in at 16 cents a share. Revenues rose 8.4% q/q and 25.3% y/y and easily beat consensus at $583.4 million.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 9:03 am
Apple estimates, target boosted at Canaccord DEC 12, 2013 | 8:14 AM EST Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $600, according to Canaccord Genuity. Estimates also upped, given higher expected iPad and iPhone 5 demand. Buy rating.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 9:05 am
Cramer on CNBCV saying thinks CIEN will be green at the end of the day now down just 3.5% when it was down near 12% pre market this morning, Cramer saying guidance and backlog is great. lets see how the day develops for cien.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 9:17 am
cramer: We’re listening to the Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq) call and will add another 1,000 shares, which have a bid/ask of $22.21/$22.25.
Johan
December 12, 2013 – 9:23 am
I liked a lot CIEN numbers… and I am liking FB pre-market!
erba1
December 12, 2013 – 9:27 am
SNDK weakness today:SanDisk downgraded to Reduce from Neutral at Nomura Nomura downgraded SanDisk due to rising industry NAND supply, a less competitive cost structure, and capital intensity. Price target lowered to $56 from $66.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 9:58 am
@Johan: well down now 5% from 12% I may even buy back SOME CIEN here under 22. Will see.
musa
December 12, 2013 – 10:05 am
still holding fb calls that i bought at 47. fb 55 by year end? i dont think it matters that FB will be in the s&p 500 but if it helps the stock go up then its fine with me
Cody
December 12, 2013 – 10:05 am
@musa: Well phrased.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 10:11 am
@musa: 100% The addition to S&P 500 and 100 does nothing for company business fundamentals.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 10:15 am
@Cody: wanted to ask U yesterday. You had said you were looking for a blast off for the markets in Jan or Q1 of 2014. ANy fundamental reason for this if my recollection of your outlook is correct? Thank U
Cody
December 12, 2013 – 10:19 am
@eryba1 One fundamental primary reason: BUBBLE BLOWING POLICIES.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 10:29 am
@Cody: so just more of the same? so any reservations about budget deal and gov shutdown fears growing into mid jan? Irregardless of your thoughts about the illusion of a budget talk doing anything good.
jakef1111
December 12, 2013 – 10:31 am
I dont like the action or chart of cien looks like its going to 20
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 10:32 am
@jakef1111: it was there in the pre market
Cody
December 12, 2013 – 10:32 am
About to publish a post that says: CIEN: Summary for Ciena Corporation – Ciena reported and the topline was a blowout, margins weren’t great though, and guidance was only inline or slightly below. So the stock was hit early, but is coming back as the day goes on. I’d mentioned yesterday that I’d like to buy a few more shares of Ciena if it got closer to $20 and with the stock seeming to firm up here near $22, at least temporarily, I’m going to buy about half as many shares as I was hoping to. I’ll buy a few more if it does drop closer to $20.
Cody
December 12, 2013 – 10:33 am
@jakef1111 Great minds think alike, eh?
jakef1111
December 12, 2013 – 10:39 am
For sure…I trimmed a little on my fb jan 2015 calls seems like this was expected…. Ive heard so much about fb in the S&p 500 my first reaction was… Didnt that happen already
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 10:42 am
@Cody: WHat to do with VIX calls expiring in 6 days? They’re underwater, but I’m thinking I should cut them loose and not lose any more… $14 and $15 strikes
jakef1111
December 12, 2013 – 10:47 am
Im gonna wait on cien.. After csco ER and now the reaction to cien ER seems like it will be dead money…. Well see….do u see the next phase of the bubble blowing market as possibly being where the laggards keep lagging and the winners keep winning… Everyone chasing gains so to speak… Does that even make sense haha
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 10:55 am
@jakef1111: yes dead money- thats the downfall, it may trade sideways for a while until expectations start to grow and the stock is out of the penalty box.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 10:58 am
tqnt looks interesting here as well as some more CREE common
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 11:00 am
Anyone know what companies provide components for the 3d printers? Surely they have chips and memory and other “stuff” in them. I am on a mission to find out.
Cody
December 12, 2013 – 11:06 am
@Jeffhok1970: Same question that I’ve been hard at work on….except for drone components too.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 11:07 am
Ok just added more common of TQNT at 7.94 a share
jakef1111
December 12, 2013 – 11:10 am
@Jeffhok1970: i think they would just print out what they need after making one
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 11:12 am
@Cody/eryba: FF or FSLR buys at this level?
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 11:15 am
@drefleury: what about SCTY here?
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 11:16 am
@Turtle108: yeah, it’s ascending nicely
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 11:18 am
@Turtle108: PS, I really do like the solar plays. have you checked out Mosaic? It’s sort of crowdfunding solar arrays. Pretty low returns (5-7%), but better than any the government is offering.
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 11:20 am
@drefleury: the only Mosaic I am familiar with is a fertilizer co?
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 11:22 am
@jakef1111: hehehe … good response
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 11:23 am
@Turtle108: it’s not a stock. Google Mosaic solar. Also, friend them on FB and they post really good articles and trending data about solar.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 11:26 am
fslr
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 11:27 am
@drefleury: FSLR IMO from the 2 choices you offered. However I am a buyer of ZNGA CREE and TQNT at these levels myself
jakef1111
December 12, 2013 – 11:30 am
@Jeffhok1970: sorry couldnt resist there was totally joking but it just seemed so obvious
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 11:35 am
@eryba1: thanks. I tranched both, and Cree and zinga
mpage
December 12, 2013 – 11:46 am
I would also like some input on FF. I sold 1/4 of my position at 18 but was only 2/3 of my self imposed allotted position. So I am wondering is this a good time to buy back in?
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 11:48 am
@mpage: stock has been acting weak after some DEP changes I believe.I have not owned anything in Size in FF for a while and dont own it myself. It would be nice to see it regain first its 50 day avg at 17, lets see if it finds a base here at 15 first.
mpage
December 12, 2013 – 11:49 am
thank you
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 11:50 am
any thoughts on IEP?
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 11:54 am
@Turtle108: hi close 148 then hit 110 after time mag cover ” master of the universe” magazine cover was TOP for ichan it seems for now. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carl-icahn-stock-collapsed-almost-193617686.html a near 30% decline. What did we discuss here a few days ago stay humble, dont boast, keep modest in your reaction to a great run and performance. Well this was the opposite.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:00 pm
even after this pullback market feels heavy = no support yet from buyers. Individual stocks doing their own thing, as we get further oversold- http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
flyfishin
December 12, 2013 – 12:07 pm
@eryba1: where do you think FB is headed after today’s announcment?
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:09 pm
@flyfishin: If we see that santa rally as this shakeout is playing out for now which is a good thing it could see 55-60 by years end’ Mid Jan. I am watching my holdings position by position. yes we were all down. Today markets down yet out stocks on avg doing better.
Johan
December 12, 2013 – 12:16 pm
trimmed FB and tranched CIEN and TQNT
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:18 pm
@Johan: nice take some winers off and buy some beaten down stocks. Cien may be in penalty box for now but how else do U get in from 27.5 two months ago and 21 today so far
Johan
December 12, 2013 – 12:25 pm
that’s correct eryba1, I am fine having trimmed some FB with nice profit and add CIEN and TQNT with the same money. Best
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:27 pm
@Johan: at this rate down 8% I may add some back soon myself.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:31 pm
znga starting to perk up in a down tape. Would like to see TQNT get a footing here / support at 50 day avg.
Janmara1
December 12, 2013 – 12:36 pm
Just got off the phone with Fidelity They are absolutely not repeat not getting involved with bit coins. they claim they don’t know where this article came from
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:39 pm
@Johan: Ok I am following you. Doing the same and just added CIEN common here at 21.2
Johan
December 12, 2013 – 12:46 pm
@eryba1: good!
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:46 pm
cien: quarter analysis I read: We see the reaction as overdone, especially on a blowout revenue number and record backlog. Fiscal 4Q earnings missed consensus by 8 cents a share and came in at 16 cents a share. Revenues rose 8.4% q/q and 25.3% y/y and easily beat consensus at $583.4 million. Revenue by product beat in every segment. Converged packet optical was $351 million and is now 60.1% of total revenues (up from 56.1% q/q and 51.1% y/y), packet networking was $61.1 million, optical transport $52.6 million and software/services at $118 million. The issue is that operating expenses rose 10.6% q/q and 9.7% y/y to $210 million and was the cause of the earnings miss.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:46 pm
Our sense is that the company had higher sale comps because of the strong orders and that accelerators kicked in. We’ll get more on the call, but with a book to bill north of 1 and a record backlog (discussed in the press release), underlying demand is strong.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:48 pm
Cien CC analysis: CIEN management just confirmed what we wrote in our earnings summary: that the opex increase was tied to strong order flow and an increase in variable compensation. This is what you want to see. The company has sales incentives in place to drive higher revenue growth. This was the entire reason for the earnings miss and as we wrote earlier, revenues were much stronger than expected (across all products led by its optical platform), the book to bill was north of 1 and the backlog was at a record level. Converged packet optical was the clear highlight, with revenue growth up 16.2% q/q and 47.4% y/y, exceeding expectations by 12%. The 1Q outlook was better than expected. At the midpoint of the given range 1Q 2014 will be 17% ahead of 1Q 2013.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 12:48 pm
That’s very impressive given the seasonality. Commentary was bullish from the management team about 2014, who said that the major carriers will to continue to invest in 2014 (and invest more throughout the year) and there is strong visibility, especially in North America and continued opportunities internationally. We’ll take advantage of the decline in the stock to further build out our position.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 1:23 pm
BAC/ML sees $AMZN grocery delivery as a $220 billion opp as it expands into 20 US metro cities. Same day delivery service also being tested.
msamuels2000
December 12, 2013 – 1:45 pm
@eryba1: Elad HLF down almost 10% since last week. We discussed it at the time and you were not liking the setup last week for the short so at what point of the decline would you have jumped in to a short position where you wouldn’t be fighting a good chart? Trying to get a read on your entry point timing and good chart/bad chart strategy to reduce risk
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 1:47 pm
looks like a correction in HLF should find support at 50 day avg uptrend line. It if fails at that support line the stock could go lower.
Johan
December 12, 2013 – 1:52 pm
This statement b
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 1:54 pm
@msamuels2000: the point is to not fight upside and let weakness develop in a very strong looking up trending stock. You could be right on your analysis but the stock and momentum could drive higher forcing your hand if you on the opposite of the trade.
Johan
December 12, 2013 – 1:54 pm
By Gary B. Smith – CIEN’s CEO: Customers are changing fast. They continue to shift CapEx away from legacy networking and towards converged next-gen solutions, another change that is benefiting Ciena. And as we’ve said repeatedly, continued success for Ciena is less about absolute customer CapEx and more about where those CapEx dollars are actually allocated.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:06 pm
things perking up JUST A BIT!! cien floor? znga starting? Dow was down 145 now 80, people looking for santa rally and we are NICELY oversold
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:11 pm
back on the fear side vs near 80 2 weeks ago: http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 2:17 pm
@eryba1: what time zone are you in? is this whole bd on central? thanks, from a west coaster
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:17 pm
nyc
jonyonson
December 12, 2013 – 2:18 pm
APMEX offering free shipping until 12ET tonight if anyone likes using them…gold down about 2.5% today
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:18 pm
where people on this board R from. Good question. I have never asked besides their country flag to left with their names. Ok I’m In NY. Others?
jonyonson
December 12, 2013 – 2:19 pm
Alabama…new member here that has been lurking the last couple of weeks
Golfcar101
December 12, 2013 – 2:20 pm
northeast pa
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:21 pm
@jonyonson: dont need to lurk, ask away
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:21 pm
@jonyonson: @jonyonson: gold seems to need that final WOOSH bottom to shake up the final weak holders and if U look at the chart GLD seems to almost be begging to retest 115 maybe even see 105-110 intraday and then clean things out and form the lower rt side of a W bottom if that forms. I am staying away until the gold rises above the 50 day avg resistance with volume and follow through unless we see that woosh
doug.sekula
December 12, 2013 – 2:24 pm
@eryba1: live near Baltimore Maryland, work in Washington DC.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:28 pm
@doug.sekula: home of MR olympic fame Michael Phelps. D.C a beautiful town!!
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 2:29 pm
colorado
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:30 pm
@Jeffhok1970: do any ski / snowboarding? Most beautiful mountains skiing wise I have ever seen yet!!
VALE is TRULY g-ds country!!!
lfnunnally
December 12, 2013 – 2:34 pm
Atlanta
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 2:36 pm
mountains of the sierra nevadas northern california-
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:37 pm
@lfnunnally: Worlds largest aquarium- Have U been?
lfnunnally
December 12, 2013 – 2:41 pm
Yes, I actually went to the grand opening – quite an event – and it is one of the neatest venues I’ve ever seen.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:42 pm
@Turtle108: Drove by there in my 1 of 2 cross country trips from NYC to LA and back when i was in my teens. Yosemite is beautiful, Giant sequoia tree park unreal memories!! What a gorgeous part of the country
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:43 pm
@lfnunnally: Grand opening! Nice were u impressed by facility, exhibits etc?
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 2:43 pm
I am a skier. I spend most of my free time in the mtns around Fraser, CO.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:45 pm
@Jeffhok1970: enjoy!! What a luxury!! Skiing is an unreal sport and the scenic views are breathtaking in the rockies.
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 2:47 pm
speaking of skiing, Intrawest (which owns Winter Park Ski and Steamboat, among others) has filed to go public. It is currently owned by Fortress Group. For the record I love Intrawest properties but can’t figure out their finances. I think Fortress has milked them for the past 10 years and now is selling the cow. Anyway, thought I would throw that out there…
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 2:52 pm
@eryba1: you in The City?
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:53 pm
@Jeffhok1970: just as global warming hits, but in CO snow is not in short supply is it? lift tickets at window prices? I recall 100 YEARS and years ago . I know buy in advance and save or season pass buy early save more.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 2:54 pm
@Jeffhok1970: 15 min away
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 3:05 pm
@eryba1: Full price lift tickets are $100-$120/day. Not sure who pays full price. Us locals by season passes for $500.
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 3:07 pm
I have always wanted to live in the Big Apple. Not sure how long I could handle or even if I could. Still it is on my bucket list. Great City!!!!
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:09 pm
@Jeffhok1970: Very fast lifestyle, SO much to do, but like anything else a balance in life is needed.
lfnunnally
December 12, 2013 – 3:12 pm
Enormous tanks! One of them holds more than 6 million gallons of water and houses the whale sharks among many other creatures. Another tank houses 4 beautiful Beluga whales. The penguin exhibit is one of my favorites. I hope you get to go – come visit this beautiful city!
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:14 pm
@lfnunnally: We have a VERY close family friend who lives there, she is like family. We may go one day. Kids have asked many times. I have a bronx zoo membership = all entry to five parks for the whole family. We have gone MANY MNAY times to aquarium, central park zoo, bronx zoo and others
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:15 pm
TWTR had no end in sight for its upside? is 59-60 next? nice action in FB LNKD, ZNGA to name afew.
lfnunnally
December 12, 2013 – 3:18 pm
I have a childhood friend that lives in NYC, and I go there a couple of times a year. I love NYC, but I love to come home – haha
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:19 pm
@lfnunnally: completely understand!!!!
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:31 pm
anyone else adding trimming etc as we are 3 weeks away from closing out the year.
jpsr1975
December 12, 2013 – 3:36 pm
@eryba1: Trimming all my winning positions…I´m a little bit afraid of the FED meeting next wednesday and the beginning of tapering
lfnunnally
December 12, 2013 – 3:39 pm
I added to Cien/TQNT/ZNGA
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:41 pm
@jpsr1975: OK understood. For me it feels like it can wait 1-2 more months into 2014 and AFTER we get a fed budget and NO gov shutdown and showdown bet dems and rep’s. So for fed why risk anything until a deal is done. lets watch and see
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:42 pm
always a good idea to trim, have free cash for opportunities such as a ZNGA, TQNT, FB and many others who corrected 10-20%
MikeM
December 12, 2013 – 3:54 pm
@eryba1: Added to TQNT today and also initiated position in CIEN today.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:57 pm
@MikeM: We seem to all be initiating similar positions. Market is surely getting oversold and seems to be setting up for that rally. meanwhile individual stocks performing well all things considered in a down market the past few days. Truly froth that was here 1-2 weeks ago.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 3:59 pm
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ back in the fear camp now. http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/ should see -200 ish reading tonight
jpsr1975
December 12, 2013 – 4:06 pm
@eryba1: do u think we can go higher?
MikeM
December 12, 2013 – 4:10 pm
@eryba1: Your thoughts on CREE and FF here? I have no positions in either yet.
msamuels2000
December 12, 2013 – 4:19 pm
@Jeffhok1970: Will be at Beaver Creek for the holiday. Do you mostly ski Steamboat and wp?
msamuels2000
December 12, 2013 – 4:20 pm
added CIEN and rebalanced a little more of my 401K out of cash and into funds
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 4:41 pm
@jpsr1975: Yes I think this pullback in the averages is setting us up for that rally. see my links above for getting oversold and fear back in.
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 4:41 pm
@eryba1: further north- near Lake Tahoe- where are you?
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 4:42 pm
@MikeM: Cree needs to prove itself. its a small position for me and waiting to see it move higher making that W bottom or other. Watchcng it closely
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 4:43 pm
@Turtle108: lake taho- Most gorgeous HUGE blue lake during winter time. Skied heavenly there 5-6 years ago it was amazing views and trails.
drefleury
December 12, 2013 – 4:49 pm
@Jeffhok1970: I love WP, go there every March with some Boulder friends… I’m in Charlotte NC y’all.
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 5:08 pm
@Turtle108: NY
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 5:09 pm
Now that we are all saying where we are from. It would be interesting to know where everyone heard of Cody and his TWC service / site?
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 5:10 pm
Facebook’s Instagram unveiled a new private photo and video messaging feature with live chat taht resembles rival Snapchat’s core service. The move came just weeks after reports surfaced that Snapchat had rejected a $3 billion buyout offer from Facebook. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-comes-after-snapchat-after-buyout-offer-spurned-193555603.html?l=1
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 5:15 pm
INTC A/H down 2% to 23.83 NEWS- Intel Shares of chip manufacturer fell in extended-hours trading after Bloomberg, citing a person with knowledge of the matter, reported Google was thinking about designing its own server processors with technology from ARM Holdings in a move that could damage Intel’s market dominance.
Jeffhok1970
December 12, 2013 – 5:58 pm
@msamuels2000: I ski WP the most but try to get to as many other resorts as possible. I haven’t skied Vail or BC in years but they are the biggest in the state and by many measures the best. Just heard the back bowls are opening at Vail. It is a good snow year. you will have a blast!!!
eryba1
December 12, 2013 – 6:01 pm
Apple Iwatch article: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12150989/2/apple-inc-iwatch-square-ipo-10-tech-predictions-for-2014.html
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 9:31 pm
@eryba1: my home town-
Turtle108
December 12, 2013 – 9:32 pm
@eryba1: used to watch Cody on Fox- this ex- NY’er loved the show!
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 7:10 am
BMO u/g CIEN to outperform following yesterday’s drop and a solid Q.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 8:27 am
Ciena upgraded at BMO Capital Markets DEC 13, 2013 | 7:58 AM EST CIEN upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform, according to BMO Capital Markets. Strong order momentum and combination of better than industry rev growth and margin expansion. $26 price target.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 9:03 am
Amazon new “PANTRY” service to start in 2014: http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/12/12/amazon-pantry/4001707/
MikeM
December 13, 2013 – 9:37 am
@eryba1: Thx for reply regarding CREE
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 9:38 am
@MikeM: NP. Ask away. thats what were here for.
888
December 13, 2013 – 9:40 am
@eryba1: do you expect a huge correction in the market come Jan when tapering talks get brought up again?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 9:42 am
@888: huge? I have said many times That i THINK that is when a correction comes, how big it will be or if it EVER comes I have no clue. I think this has been a productive pullback which is playing out STILL in the averages yet our stocks have done well for most part. So if we can get that run higher into year end and the first 2 weeks of Jan I will pullback my horns and sell and then observe what to do.
888
December 13, 2013 – 9:44 am
@eryba1: wouldn’t it be a better strategy to stay on the sidelines and wait for a correction that is likely to occur?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 9:47 am
@888: Wait on the sidelines? If you look our individual stocks are doing well, Fb GOOG aapl amzn znga and others, stocks corrected 10-20% the averages just now have started to correct the S&P down 8 of 10 days from 1810 ish back to 1775. I like the setup here as we are oversold and continue to remove froth and at the same time our positions are doing better than the averages. For now I like the setup. If things change I will have to change as well but for now markets are getting further oversold and fear guage building http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ and http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
musa
December 13, 2013 – 9:49 am
jim cramer on cnbc mentioned twitter is like netflix or amazon in that it can do no wrong right now and i agree. everyone expected a FB style sell off but now people cant get enough of twitter. really one of the best ipos of 2013
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 9:58 am
@musa: maybe but HUGE valuation he has said unfounded and rather own goog of Fb that make money vs over valued TWTR. Hes been wrong in that its just rising but he never said sell just stay away, as cody has said about twtr
Johan
December 13, 2013 – 9:59 am
buing AAPL today…
gpo344
December 13, 2013 – 10:47 am
Any new about China Mobile yet?
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 11:12 am
How you know it’s a momo bubble #56 – The top three green stocks on my screen are Pandora, Twitter and GSVC…
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 11:14 am
looking to add more tqnt today perhaps, we are getting further oversold greed/fear index in 30’s now- a good contrary sign, worst I saw was 17
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 11:18 am
added more TQNT common shares today.
Golfcar101
December 13, 2013 – 11:21 am
@eryba1: do you think tqnt dead money until company proves it can perform better. why would the results be any different after there previous er disappointments.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 11:30 am
@Golfcar101: I think china mobile deal will help quite a bit and recent articles on companies needing data collection for smart objects are all benefitting tqnt.. We’re having a pullback, Im am adding to my small position in it. Like all other positons I will watch and manage it
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:06 pm
anyone else trimming / adding at these levels?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:12 pm
FB continues to do very well. Social and the cloud based on ADBE subscriber growth on its new cloud #’s show more and more people moving into the cloud globally. AMZN seemed to find footing at 380 for now. Stocks seems to be listless overall today and there for now seems no real interest to buy, which is fine. lets us get further oversold and maybe this is the setup needed to trigger that rally into new year and the first 1-2 weeks of Jan. Lets monitor our individual positions. The froth has been removed as we were +79 on this guage 2 weeks ago and our stocks r doing well / holding their own http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 12:26 pm
Wonder why we didn’t get in on ADBE?
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 12:32 pm
Anyone care to comment? If you had June $52.5 FB options that are up 75% already…do you trim at all or let it ride into a potential 2-3 bagger?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:33 pm
@jahmon: Options is not my forte, my 1st question would be what % of your portfolio is this position?
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 12:39 pm
@eryba1 FB common about 4.5% and June $52.5 calls about 1%
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:39 pm
as for adbe- hindsight is always 20/20. I think we have a good set of stocks and since apple stopped using adobe in its Mobile IOS and now even macs.ttp://www.theguardian.com/technology/blog/2010/oct/23/apple-flash-war-steve-jobs-continues I know apple controls a smaller % of smart phones and desktops but adobe is moving because of its cloud business not anything else-
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 12:41 pm
ADBE is all about Creative Cloud on one side of its business, but do not forget that the even bigger side of their business is their marketing automation toolsets that include their acquisitions of companies like Omniture, Neolane, etc..
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:41 pm
@jahmon: so a relatively small %. So its a coin toss, 75% is nice gain in what period of time? meaning did U buy it for a trade? longer term holding?
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 12:42 pm
75% in about 3 weeks. Bought the options when FB was being punished, thinking June was enough time for a possible 2-3 bagger
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:44 pm
@jahmon: then take some profits, this way U can never look back and say I should have.
calmdaw1
December 13, 2013 – 12:45 pm
@jahmon: you could sell some higher strike FB calls. This would limit your upside gains but could also recover your cost basis on the calls you currently hold.
Turtle108
December 13, 2013 – 12:47 pm
@jahmon: you can never go broke taking a profit, so do it, maybe scale out a bit- that being said, I was always taught when an option doubles, sell half.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 12:49 pm
@jahmon: I took action as doug initiated this week trimming some FB and adding znga,cree,tqnt and others like cien yesterday
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 1:46 pm
Thanks all
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 1:48 pm
No adding FSLR eryba1?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 1:51 pm
@jahmon: no let it settle down 10% correction so far from 60 last week
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 2:07 pm
Since it’s a little slow on the board today I wanted to ask another question. I have a small position in January 17 JNPR calls. JNPR reports on January 20. Are these possible bad calls to hold as I wouldn’t get any potential upswing from the ER? The next available calls are in April and wondering if I should roll them out or hold. I would think this concept of options expiring right before earnings reports has happened to many of you who have used options trading for years. Thanks.
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 2:18 pm
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 2:24 pm
Apple stock is something else. Analyst keep raising targets, reports keep showing how Apple’s main products are hot, China Mobile almost there, and the stock doesn’t keep going up. How long before Apple has has enough money to buy all it’s shares back?
Johan
December 13, 2013 – 2:35 pm
I read an article this week that AAPL used to fall on fridays… I just wanted to add to my AAPL long position and I was waiting for price below 560.00 Today is friday and I am buying at 554… Joking but it works!!!
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 2:36 pm
What more good news is out there in the next couple to keep it going up? One should expect this quarter is strong one, so is that already priced in? I just don’t see how Google, priceline, etc go to $1000+ while Apple goes to $390 and still only sits at $550 right now.
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 2:37 pm
Couple months
Johan
December 13, 2013 – 2:40 pm
What I think is that AAPL is right now sideline around 550 – 560 as it was couple weeks ago between 510 – 530. I really believe it could be another support and then go up to 580 – 600… We’ll see
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 2:41 pm
Cook said they were going to have a busy fall and new product categories next year. Fall is proving busy, and still no one believes in his optimism and innovation at Apple
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 2:42 pm
@Johan: I read that too and Fridays tend to be crappy it seems
ebdavids
December 13, 2013 – 2:46 pm
@jahmon: Interesting question; hope someone picks it up — but if not, save it for Cody (if he shows up here today, or next week’s Q&A).
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 3:08 pm
@JSmith: RSI was too hi, stock was overbought short term, pulling back 1-2% should not be an issue. Diversity is the key here. when one stock does not perform the others should pick up the slack, sell rips buy dips. Too much in any one position can frustrate anyone to no end.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 3:12 pm
@JSmith: the decline also gives others a chance to get in on apple vs chasing the stock at near 570
JSmith
December 13, 2013 – 3:16 pm
@eryba1: I just don’t Apple should be selling this low still, but obviously the market doesn’t agree
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 3:18 pm
@JSmith: yes and u cant fight it or accept it, buy when its hates 380-450 and now 555. Its had a nice run let it work off overbought nature that was the case a few days ago, diversify meantime. thats why some here trimmed some FB and added cien tqnt znga on their 10-20+ % pullbacks. It slowly but surely helps your portfolio as aapl declines a few % points the other stocks pick up the slack if they have ended their corrections
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 3:31 pm
@JSmith: thats U can fight it or accept it. The market can be correct one way or te other longer than we can stay patient or liquid if going against it.
jahmon
December 13, 2013 – 4:00 pm
The new CREE bulbs are set up all over my local Home Depot….Marked to half price!
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:10 pm
OK its been a LONG week for me. Lots of running around and very long days and nights. Enjoy your weekend do something fun. The declines we have had in the averages sets us up well for the final 2 full weeks of the year and a rally can take shape as we got further oversold this week. Our individual names have performed better than the averages all a good sign as we head into next week oversold.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:22 pm
@eryba1: I am assuming by some of your comments you subscribe to one or more of Cramer’s services. What is your opinion of Motley Fool ? They have a sale on their service now.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:23 pm
@MOBYDOC: yes subscribe to 2 of cramers sevices.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:23 pm
@eryba1: so do I. Your thoughts on Motley Fool?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:24 pm
Tried motley fool several times, didnt like the NON real time feel of it. With Cramers portfolio I am in close contact with his co manager on a regular basis Stephanie.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:25 pm
@eryba1: Thank You very much.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:25 pm
Thats what drew mw to cody aside from meeting cody from his writing days at RM.com from 2000 when we first met. The live real time and accessability you have to cody ask him questions same with stephanie for me is priceless
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:26 pm
I mean how can you truly get better than asking the man making the decisions questions we each have for our holdings, positions when they go our way or against us.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:27 pm
With fool.com there is as far as my experience NO interaction. They are too large
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:27 pm
@eryba1: Again THANKS …
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:27 pm
Uou never get a Q&A session weekly, cant write in questins at other times, never have a chat where U can ask questions and get real helpful answers
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:28 pm
ESPECIALLY when U R stuck in a bad position or a great one going your way, what to do, advise, feedback, another persons take or opinion that have worked before. Thats not anywhere on the web that I know of in this direct 1 to 1 like feel this site gives. Even better than cramers for that matter.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:30 pm
@MOBYDOC: Hope that helps.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:31 pm
@eryba1: I’VE BEEN WITH CODY SINCE THE BEGINNING …(GOT THE T-SHIRT) ..We’re coming up on 5yrs. soon ? The T-shirt is worn out … lol
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:32 pm
@eryba1: But not the value of the Service.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:32 pm
@MOBYDOC: nice. I have been here for almost 2 years now. One as a subscriber the other as guide here on this chat.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:34 pm
yes If I am to be quite frank this has been the best performance year for me personally. We started out very slow in Q 1-2 then rocketed higher
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:37 pm
@eryba1: Your take on things are a little more conservative than many, and I appreciate the different point of view … Thanks. By the way, if you want to try some “real” skiing in some Real Mountains, take a trip to Banff and see Lake Louise or Sunshine for a change
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:38 pm
an Ex-pat from Calgtary.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:39 pm
Calgary
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:40 pm
@MOBYDOC: U want to laugh?
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:40 pm
I have a poster of banff springs lake louise british columbia that I have been dreaming of going to for nearly a decade now.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:41 pm
@MOBYDOC: U R from where? what part of the country? have U skied there? so far out west I have bene to heavenly and vail, aspen and one other. The BEST has been VAIL so far.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:42 pm
There are bunny trails everywhere and at my age I’d probably join you there, far away from the “Diamonds”.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:42 pm
@MOBYDOC: conservative? thats a good one, at times I feel I am TOO aggressive with my stock actions, my comments to others is prob on the safer side as when you realize keeping your capital safe and when to act is crucial, its safer to err on the side of caution to help your accounts TRULY grow
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:44 pm
as ones accounts grow to larger amounts, U want to protect your capital and invest when the opportunity for growth is BEST thus waiitng for upside to emerge above 50 day avg on vol follow thru days etc
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:44 pm
I live in Nebraska now but Lived much of “another life” in Calgary. I’m not trying to use skiing as a metaphor for your trading style…lol
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:45 pm
@MOBYDOC: no I understand skiing is skiing
I love the black diamonds. LOVE the Surf skis from BBR skis AMAZINg for my height and weight and skill set!! all mountain ski
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:48 pm
@eryba1: I’ve rented the parabolics and really like them too. Sure a big difference from the225cm. Hart GS that I started on.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:53 pm
@MOBYDOC: Yes I previously had the OLD MSL skis from K2 with THE look bindings
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:55 pm
As far as investing, we need to be aggressive when momentum is going our way. I added Fb in a big way for a few accts when it broke above 50 day avg on upside at 49 this week and it paid off handsomely. We need to see go with strength when its the right time and others build into weakness on others. Its a delicate balance.
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 4:56 pm
@eryba1: I even had a pair of the rear entry Hansens, that were made famous by being the boots that Darth Vader and the Storm Troopers wore in the first Star Wars.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:56 pm
@MOBYDOC: As our accounts grow 10% moves become MUCH bigger $$ wise and we need to watch that ever so closely, thus sell rips buy dips.
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 4:57 pm
Hansens- sure I remember those when I first started skiing at the age of 16 which is now 24 years ago
MOBYDOC
December 13, 2013 – 5:00 pm
@eryba1: Enough reminiscing, I was 44 then… I do appreciate your “Guidance”, thanks.
msamuels2000
December 13, 2013 – 5:01 pm
@eryba1: Read my mind. I took my 10% on HLF and covered this morning
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 5:03 pm
@MOBYDOC: NP- Enjoy your weekend!!
eryba1
December 13, 2013 – 5:04 pm
@msamuels2000: HLF has corrected to support it should find around here if its to restart upside
JeffDaniel
December 13, 2013 – 9:26 pm
Cody, I am a subscriber. How do I take you up on your annual $700 membership. Is this available for regular members?
eryba1
December 14, 2013 – 5:48 am
@JeffDaniel: just contact Bill the sits IT guy at support@tradingwithcody.com. They will help U with this.
JeffDaniel
December 14, 2013 – 10:51 am
@eyba1, thank you. Jeff
Teewilly
December 14, 2013 – 1:29 pm
Cody-Bill…I changed from a monthly membership to the annual and took advantage of the Holiday savings a great deal! However, every time a click on post of yours it tells me I have canceled my membership. I have emailed the support folks a couple of times and I have yet to here from them and its been a couple of weeks now….help!
blueroger
December 14, 2013 – 4:30 pm
I asked once earlier and haven’t seen any kind of reply. What do you think of MU and the Automata memory chip/coprocessor they will be coming out with? This seems like a real game changer to me. I am also thinking it could end up having a real negative effect on Intel’s server business, just like ARM has had on the low end. What do you see as the long term potential here?
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 7:29 am
Last night futures were down 75 today up 75: the reason why so far for the change: Futures reverse on better Euro PMI bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-1…
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 8:04 am
@blueroger: u make very good points, MU AMAZING YTD returns. Last week google announces it may make chips of its own.
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 8:09 am
from a friend: There is more talk about the possibility that the Fed will announce some tapering when it issues its interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. EST. Many pundits have attributed the recent weakness to fears of tapering. so there is going to be some nervousness over the announcement. Most market commentators think it will be another month or two before the Fed makes its move, but any hints at all that tapering is coming could give us some increased volatility. We have a standard Monday morning gap on the way and traders seem anxious for some holiday spirit. Stay selective and manage positions tightly
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 8:11 am
German DAX up 1.5% so far today: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-16/asian-stocks-drop-with-silver-on-china-factory-data-oil-climbs.html
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 8:52 am
Apple raises its price target, EPS at Jefferies DEC 16, 2013 | 8:21 AM EST AAPl boosted its numbers, Jefferies said. CQ4 sell-thrrough is solid and CQ1 build plans increased due to China Mobile. $650 price target and Buy rating.
888
December 16, 2013 – 9:45 am
@eryba1: would you buy goog at these levels?
musa
December 16, 2013 – 10:01 am
facebook 55 by year end? maybe 55 by the end of the day haha.
Bill
December 16, 2013 – 10:21 am
@Teewilly: I’ll take care of you. I’m going to email you via support@tradingwithcody.com in just a minute.
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 10:37 am
metal stks catching a bid this morning
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 10:38 am
could/probably will be very volatile this week-
Cody
December 16, 2013 – 12:06 pm
it’s time for another round of Wall Street’s favorite TV Game Show, “Who’s more scarred right now, the bulls or the bears?” You can email me you answer at support@tradingwithcody.com, or leave a comment below or just go take the poll itself.
Cody
December 16, 2013 – 12:06 pm
http://wallstreetallstars.com/poll/
Golfcar101
December 16, 2013 – 12:09 pm
bears into year end
Cody
December 16, 2013 – 12:13 pm
I’m going to give a presentation about Everything You Need to Know About Investing at the upcoming Money Show Expo in NYC on Tuesday, February 18, 2014 at 10:30 am. http://www.moneyshow.com/tradeshow/new_york/traders_expo/?scode=034412
Cody
December 16, 2013 – 12:14 pm
Registration for the expo and attendance to my presentation are free.
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 12:20 pm
@888: My cost basis is rt around here 1060
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 12:27 pm
@musa: remember those trading rules dont anger those market g-ds and thing this GIG is TOO EASY?? STAY Humble, FB was 54.5 now back to just hanging on to being green at 53.1.
carl
December 16, 2013 – 12:37 pm
@eryba1 Are appl calls a buy? Month/strike? What about the common? $650 is really a nice number.
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 12:56 pm
@carl: I do not deal with options. Strictly stock.
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 1:10 pm
@carl: as for common shares apple seems to be buidling a nice base of support here working off its overbought condition on the RSI. Do you have any shares? first time buyer?adding to previous levels at what?
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 1:12 pm
I’m considering adding to a long time position at this level- haven’t pulled the trigger yet- what I am holding is from awhile back, in the $279 range- thought I was crazy and it was expensive at that point. (also one of those who bought at 19 but didn’t hold on)-
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 1:14 pm
@Turtle108: the setup looks good for now. Again we have going into jan a possible 3-4 week run I think. Then the federal ceiling, Egypt elections on the 14-15. All things that SPOOKED the markets last time. So I am think more short term these days. IMO
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 1:21 pm
that’s why I have a major part of my pf in long term income stks- looking right now at buying CVI and ATLS-
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 1:22 pm
gees, Friday would have been better- )
eryba1
December 16, 2013 – 1:24 pm
@Turtle108: thats we its best to buy in tranches vs all at once . A .70 % rise in apple shouldnt deter U from buying. Especially if U =R thinking 650 like #’s
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 1:31 pm
yes, I agree- I do try to always scale in and out-
Turtle108
December 16, 2013 – 1:32 pm
scaled in to a few gold stks just in case , with very tight stops-
rzepeda
December 16, 2013 – 2:44 pm
Interesting read on potential Oil Equip Stocks. Any thoughts? http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/12/15/why-history-is-in-mexicos-favor.aspx
jahmon
December 16, 2013 – 3:15 pm
Monday afternoon Apple fade…
jpsr1975
December 16, 2013 – 3:45 pm
HLF + 12%
jahmon
December 16, 2013 – 3:51 pm
Wow…I sold all of my HLF puts for 50% and 25% gains literally an hour before that spike.
jahmon
December 16, 2013 – 3:51 pm
Thank God for small favors…
satishask
December 16, 2013 – 3:56 pm
bears are scared
jahmon
December 16, 2013 – 3:57 pm
Pandora fights and fights it…man that stock is tenacious..
msamuels2000
December 16, 2013 – 3:59 pm
@jahmon: I covered my HLF sort last friday for modest gains – better to be lucky than good sometimes.
drefleury
December 16, 2013 – 5:15 pm
@jahmon: I did exacltly the same thing in HLF this morning. I credit eryba for cautioning a base building last Friday…
jahmon
December 16, 2013 – 5:25 pm
I saw the post. Thanks Elad!
Turtle108
December 17, 2013 – 2:14 am
@rzepeda: hi- I have a large position in Seadrill, SDRL, and also NATDF, North Atlantic Drilling- both deep sea drillers- both owned by Norway’s Buffett, John Fredriksen- he has made a lot of people a lot of money! he is a very shareholder friendly guy, as he is a large holder of both cos- his daughter’s sit on the bds- I am a believer in deep sea drilling, and these 2 cos are my ticket. They both pay out nice divvies- NATDF just announced today a US listing- nice to see some talk of drillers on this bd-
Turtle108
December 17, 2013 – 2:26 am
since it’s after hours- this is very OT- anyone out there know what a Zoomer Dog is? the hottest toy for this Xmas! they are sold out everywhere- I am watching them getting auctioned off on Ebay- hundreds of them- they cost $79, going for $180- $200 – wonder what they’ll be in a day or two- Is Zoomer Dog the next BTC??? LOL!
JSmith
December 17, 2013 – 8:08 am
@Turtle108: I own SDRL but it has been going down recently…is this just temp and when would u buy more?
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 8:11 am
FB ad clips debut and an upgrade from http://finance.yahoo.com/news/auto-playing-video-ads-infiltrate-122949733.html. Facebook upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna Susquehanna upgraded Facebook and raised estimates above Street estimates based on multiple levers for growth. The firm views Facebook’s decision to not to “significantly” increase sponsored ad stories as a percentage of newsfeed as a positive for ad quality and conversion. The analyst views video ads as a substantial opportunity and views “teen” concerns as overblown. Price target raised to $68 from $52.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 8:39 am
Facebook estimates, target raised at Sterne Agee DEC 17, 2013 | 8:18 AM EST Shares of FB now seen reaching $60, according to Sterne Agee. Estimates also increased, given better expected advertising growth. Buy rating.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 8:58 am
Weak people talk and do not act; strong people act and keep quiet. –Eliphas Levi
Turtle108
December 17, 2013 – 8:58 am
@JSmith: I hope it’s temporary- I am betting it is- I am a long term holder and have a low cost basis tho, willing to ride out any weakness. I would probably be scaling in if I had none at this point- use Cody’s method. It is yielding 8-9%. Wish I could tell you what to do, but…….
musa
December 17, 2013 – 9:41 am
facebook getting more love today after a decent day yesterday. not selling my calls that i bought at 47 until i see some real weakness. some big fund managers want all of facebook right now and im riding the wave
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 10:08 am
FSLR seems to have found some footing at 54 for past few days and now risen above its 50 day avg
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 10:16 am
It is usually said for the individual investor it makes no diff to need to show which stocks they have on the books by the close of the new year. What is important to them is them is taking losses in the current years to offset gains they have. For others its about thinking of taking gains in the new year to pay taxes on those gains in 2015 vs march 2014. Anyone here thinking of these and or acting on them?
Turtle108
December 17, 2013 – 10:50 am
@eryba1: oh yeah- scouring all acct’s to try to minimize tax implications-
msamuels2000
December 17, 2013 – 11:21 am
@eryba1: I just started a FSLR position. Not a fan of the sector and didn’t participate in the last run but the chart looks promising
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 11:34 am
markets under some pressure as 2 day fed meeting begins tom and the decision is announced tom. To taper or not to taper those r the 2 thinking camps out there today. Anyone care to put your idea on the table? taper now or can it wait for Q1 2014? After budget ceiling talks, gov shutdown risk? other?
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 11:40 am
I’m in the wait until the smoke clears and dust settles camp for a Q1 taper vs rt before the new year.
msamuels2000
December 17, 2013 – 11:41 am
@eryba1: Common sense says no one is going to rock the boat until after the ceiling debate unless of course the fix is in to drive the markets lower. It’s like picking the winner of a rigged poker game. all we know is that Wall Street insiders will win but we don’t know what game they are playing yet.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 11:41 am
@msamuels2000: yes kets see it cross back above 50m day avg with vol and follow through days.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 11:43 am
@msamuels2000: thats ket it cross above. As for the no brainer / common sense one would think so but if thats the case why is there so much AGGITA going into tomorrow? No one wants to really buy into that common sense after an S&P + 24% return year. Many are waiting for the common to make more sense
Golfcar101
December 17, 2013 – 11:50 am
think the fed puts it on yellen to taper
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 11:52 am
@Golfcar101: so the squeeze is in? bernanke influence is gone already? push for taper now vs a month from now and see where washington takes us gov shutdown or not? isnt that more important that taper talk tomorrow?
Golfcar101
December 17, 2013 – 12:06 pm
all good points just a gut feel that big ben wants no part of being bad guy and is happy to just sit and wait and let yellen do it
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 12:08 pm
@Golfcar101: thats a given, we all know the taper will be here next year if we continue to recover The question for Dec 18 2013 is does it come in dec or sometime in Q1 2014. market on pause until then in the averages, individual stocks as usual moving to their own beat.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:08 pm
anyone here is so lucky to be off for christmas until after new years? Trips? with friends family? what states? out of the country?
Golfcar101
December 17, 2013 – 1:15 pm
@eryba1: cody and yourself do a great job with site but mostly geared toward tech. not sure how other subs feel but would like to see other other sectors covered not sure if possible just a thought.
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 1:17 pm
Annual trip to see relatives in Hawaii. Mele Kalikimaka to all.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:20 pm
@Golfcar101: I had asked cody about in the first few months of this year when his stocks were grealty UNDERPERFORMING. Codys response was simple- his background is tech based. This is what he knows best, from previous work after college and the work force and later on in the investment world. He is in invested in LNN, FF, CCC to name a few. There are no industrials plays like the amazing BA dividend and buyback. Nor Cummins engine, of JCi which will do well I believe. He is Short the financial sector which for now has not played out and I believe will continue to under perfom if one is short them.
Golfcar101
December 17, 2013 – 1:23 pm
@eryba1: fair enough
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:23 pm
Cody has just sent an e-mail about the possible bubble growing more AFTER a possible 100-20% correction in the markets which we have not seen a 10% correction all year. I think that will come around Mid Jan when the US GOV spending ceiling talks emerge again. That is but own opinion. For now this is as you say a mostly tech centric portfolio which YTD has greatly outperfomed the averages. As interest do eventually rise it will be the fastest growth stocks that will be sought out from investors. reason being as rates rise Div paying stocks of 2-4% that as a stock are volatile, an investor can buy cd’s bonds at 2-4% and have no volatility. As a result fast or hyper growth stocks will be the ones investors seek and and those are the ones cody specializes in. IMHO.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:26 pm
@Golfcar101: I had other industrials and financial all on the long common side in the 1st haf of 2013. They were outperforming but codys tech were dragging down my portfolio which was as a result not REMOTELY keeping pace with the S&P 500. Then in something changed. Tech, social, the cloud became what investors wanted. The likes of FB, AMZN, LNKD, YELP, FSLR, CIEN,SNDK, began to outperform and continue to do so even if they have all had their corrections.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:27 pm
@jahmon: Hawaii- WOW big island? other?
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 1:28 pm
My favorite place is the Mauna Kea on the Big Island, but family is mainly in Hawaii Kai on Oahu. I’ll take it for a winter getaway.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:29 pm
@jahmon: anyone will take it!! ENJOY!!! Hope you have had a good year and YTD results with the TWC site.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:31 pm
@jahmon: I have never been to the big island. However had been fortunate to visit Maui when I was 18 and then again for part of my honeymoon. Did some amazing scuba diving there off the island of Lanai. Stunning!!!
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 1:32 pm
It was a big learning year, Elad. Thanks for all of your help and advice.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:35 pm
@jahmon: U R welcome.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 1:45 pm
@jahmon: hope it was a profitable year as well.
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 1:59 pm
Profits came and went in wild swings this year, Elad. Most of the bad swings were because I overloaded in particular positions that turned out horribly ala FIO, early year APPL, GDX, etc. Big winners too in FB, CIEN, FSLR, XONE, etc. Looking forward to being a better investor this coming year with TWC help.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:04 pm
@jahmon: Now I understand your first response. Lets try to outperform next year. Sell rips, buy dips, stay diversified, and always be watching your accounts.Its now just what U own but how much of that counts as well.
rkumar
December 17, 2013 – 2:04 pm
anyone like fuel or meli??
rkumar
December 17, 2013 – 2:04 pm
any opininn??
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:07 pm
@rkumar: Fuel- new Ipo down from its openings. Meli double top at 140 now at 103? Meli slow decline now staying at or under its 10 day moving avg. Other than that never heard of it.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:15 pm
Was listening to cramer this week- he had mentioned a few times this is NOT like 1999-2000 IN that there are no new IPO’s like TWTR LNKD or FB coming to the market every week. reason being these companies OWN their space. The competition is either being bought out before the IPO of the company in name IS THE SPACE. with 1.2+ Billion users FB owns social media. with the model NFLX has and now branding creating their own shows there is no room for another as content is KING.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:15 pm
Same with AMAZON, GOOG, AAPL. these companies are staying on top and their own eco systems are growing as cody has been trying to instill in us. users dont want to leave as there is no product like it out there to go to on its price, scale, efficiency, ease. On Codys last e-mail today he speaks of this market having a continued run 1,2 or 5 years. He may be onto something. However first I believe that taper / gov shutdown/ federal budget ceiling showdown in washington looms in Mid jan. Lets be focused on that and our individual positions heading into the 2nd week of Jan
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 2:16 pm
Weird. tried to read the latest post from Cody and it gave me a membership cancelled notice. All the other content works tho… Bill?
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 2:18 pm
Sold a little FB common… trimmmmmmmmm
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:42 pm
@drefleury: nice. trim away as everyone sees fit. each portfolio is diff, each acct, each tax year different needs
msamuels2000
December 17, 2013 – 2:45 pm
@drefleury: I think it’s going to continue to run into the Dec 21 expiration…at least that’s where my money is meeting my mouth. Going to ride my 52s into the exp.
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 2:47 pm
Voxeljet for $35 anyone?
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 2:49 pm
I gave in. I sold 1/4 of my June FB calls for 120% profit.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:51 pm
@jahmon: 120% profit is not giving in. those are some major profits. If someone can grow their portfolio 2% a month for 12 months that adds up to so VERY hefty returns and compounded Year after year thats some serious money. So never look at 120% or think of 120% gains as giving in, or JUST 120% returns.
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 2:55 pm
Good points…I think I’m leaving money on the table but trying to be more conservative moving forward…even if these were calls.
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 2:56 pm
Pandora, with a market cap of $4.95 billion, generated negative operating cash flow of $2.44 million over the past year. But it’s a media darling momo stock and is resilient as all hell so far…
Turtle108
December 17, 2013 – 2:57 pm
@jahmon: congrats! good job! discipline!
Turtle108
December 17, 2013 – 2:58 pm
@eryba1: thanks for the TQNT – so far so good!
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 2:59 pm
@jahmon: one second, conservative? with 120% gains? We sell on the way up in tranches because we wont ever catch the absolute top with a full sale of a position. So 120% as a partial profit on some of that holding is a wildly productive trade / investment. A BIG part of investing is our mentality we bring to our investments day after day. We work at making our $ work for us day after day. TO ever think of 50 % returns or 80% of 120% as JUST an OK return on our capital is not the right way to think about it. Where in this economy can U invest and in in a few months or weeks or less at times see such returns on your capital??
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:00 pm
@Turtle108: yes it found support at the 7.7 – 7.9 level its 200 day moving avg lets see the next stop 9 and above? lets monitor it.
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 3:03 pm
@eryba1: Yeah, I was trimming to get my margin balance back down to zero… Want to hav some room to swing. I am curious what percentage of margin to portfolio people generally float on this board. Mine varies, but is sometimes tapped all the way out, or times like now, down to zero.
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 3:05 pm
Of course, it would also matter if someone only had their brokerage account and no other investments I suppose.
msamuels2000
December 17, 2013 – 3:08 pm
@drefleury: I never float. Not to say that I wouldn’t but I have never come up to an investment or setup that was so compelling that I felt it was worth the risk.
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 3:09 pm
@msamuels2000: Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:10 pm
@drefleury: MARGIN? Thats a word I do no utter anymore. If anyone listens to me or my advise at all. MARGIN is another word for personal disaster when U least expect it. NEVER GO on margin. I did that in 2001 and was almost wiped out. I have since then learned not to use it, be tempted by it, even asked some accounts I manage for the person setting it up to ask not to have margin ability.
Golfcar101
December 17, 2013 – 3:11 pm
same here never use margin
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 3:13 pm
Good points, Eryba1. I am very happy that I took that position and now it is basically guaranteed a big winner. I notice Cody holds onto options a long time…didn’t even sell any more of his GSVC calls even after they crested 200%.
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 3:13 pm
@eryba1: Good stuff. Knock on veneer, but I’ve never gotten stung. Might be a good warning.
jahmon
December 17, 2013 – 3:13 pm
I don’t get near margin
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:14 pm
If you are able to manage selling rips, buying dips that margin will only get you in trouble when you least expect it. Ever heard of the flash crash May 6th 2010. can U imagine being on margin and being woped out because of a computer error and your S& 500 blue chip stock traded to ZERO?? http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2010/05/06/four-mega-drops-of-the-flash-crash-sam-adams-goes-flat/ read
rkumar
December 17, 2013 – 3:17 pm
crus worth a buy here??
drefleury
December 17, 2013 – 3:21 pm
@eryba1: Yeah, that’s rough… I would have liked to have a sell order on Southeby’s though when it hit 100K!
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:24 pm
@drefleury: would we all, wouldnt we all!!!
MOBYDOC
December 17, 2013 – 3:24 pm
@eryba1: @CODY; Could this be the time for a successful short or Put on JPM, or are they just too big to be affected?
MOBYDOC
December 17, 2013 – 3:24 pm
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:27 pm
@MOBYDOC: for now no cracks in stock chart, just moving sideways creating a base of sorts. Tom will be a big day, could decide next few % points of the markets. We are oversold, fear is here in some indicators % of bears mid to hi. Everyone who wants to act is on hold it seems. Still individual stocks going dancing to their own beat.
MOBYDOC
December 17, 2013 – 3:28 pm
@eryba1: Thank you again ..as always.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:28 pm
@MOBYDOC: Not a problem.
umpire77
December 17, 2013 – 3:30 pm
@Eryba 1: do you feel the fed will begin to taper it’s buying tomorrow?
umpire77
December 17, 2013 – 3:32 pm
Buying pull back… Sorry
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:33 pm
@umpire77: If U read the discussion from today. I see no reason to start tomorrow. Why would U taper rt ahead of some very POWERFUL events next month? I mean 30 days is going to make a diff if U start now vs waiting for washington and their antics to freeze the USA and world to come to an end first.
umpire77
December 17, 2013 – 3:35 pm
I see what you mean. Thanks
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:38 pm
@umpire77: that is my opinion and others have said this line of thinking makes common sense. What the fed does will either confirm that sensible idea is a common idea or not as common as we think. Thus the near UNCH in the averages today. However good action in some stocks like FSLR FB SNDK ZNGA CREE TQNT CIEN so far today with 22 min left in the trading day.
gpo344
December 17, 2013 – 3:50 pm
Any news from China about the iPhone yet?
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:54 pm
@gpo344: nothing yet. I am sure there will be news from apple if / when it does occur.
gpo344
December 17, 2013 – 3:55 pm
It’s Wednesday there now. Although very early. We should hear tonight if they are selling or taking orders for the iPhone along with their 4G launch.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 3:55 pm
Apple’s app store most downloaded apps of 2013 http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2013/12/17/top-apple-downloads-of-the-year/4042057/
flyfishin
December 17, 2013 – 4:00 pm
@eryba1: Just want to say thanks to you and Cody, I think this service and forum are one of the best investments any novice trader like myself could make. I Trimmed a lot today myself with great gains that i would have never made without TWC. Happy Holidays to everyone.
eryba1
December 17, 2013 – 4:46 pm
@flyfishin: enjoy the holidays and the profits from 2013. You are very welcome.
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 6:40 am
China Mobile says talks with Apple ongoing, Reuters reports China Mobile (CHL) said it was still in talks with Apple (AAPL) about selling iPhones, according to Reuters. China Mobile has no announcements to make regarding a potential deal with Apple, the Chinese company’s chairman said today, the news service stated. Reference Link
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 6:42 am
Jabil reported last night weak #’s: the JBL weakness that AAPL must be doing poorly and citi does. We have to be careful about the one-to-one extrapolation because JBL is always one foot out the door with Apple. But today there will be downward pressure on apple because of JBL.
JSmith
December 18, 2013 – 7:43 am
@eryba1: looks like Appl is taking it in the shorts today. Upgrade after upgrade barely nudged it up…people are so focused on the China Mobile timing.
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 8:01 am
@JSmith: Jabil cicuits report last night seems to be panicking people this morning aapl, sndk tqnt cien, lnkd is down 2.5% as well lets see how the day unfolds we have the fed decision this afternoon
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 8:17 am
Superbikes’ the Bicycle of the future? http://www.usatoday.com/videos/money/business/2013/12/18/4095135/
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 8:49 am
Apple estimates, target raised at JP Morgan DEC 18, 2013 | 7:56 AM EST Shares of AAPL now seen reaching $615, according to JP Morgan. Estimates also increased, given higher expected iPhone and Mac growth. Overweight rating.
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:17 am
I am looking to trim my LNKD today as and pick up more apple
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:20 am
@eryba1: I don’t hold LNKD, but was thinking the same about AAPL-
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:20 am
A fund managers take on Bitcoins this morning after recent news: As more countries weigh in on Bitcoins, the bloom seems to be coming off the rose. Denmark started to discuss standards yesterday and there was more negative news out of China overnight. The China news sparked another major downdraft today and the price sold off 30%. The price is now 50% lower from when we wrote our negative assessment on the Bitcoin on December 5th. As more countries, regulators and investors make negative comments and the price declines, the selloff will likely take on a life of its own with weakness begetting more weakness. As we believe there is little or no intrinsic value, there will be little that investors can rely on to stop the fall.
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:21 am
@eryba1: BTW, good morning
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:22 am
@Turtle108: GM, yes I have a position in LNKD and its gone from 238 last week to 218 this morning ,rolling 8-10% corrections here and almost 20% before that. Its been sideways in a range here and its at my cost basis now so I want to move onto something that may have more short term upside, even if I believe in lnkd for the longer haul.
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:23 am
@eryba1: sounds like a good plan- I have never warmed up to LNKD- I know that doesn’t mean anything, but I just don’t really “get it”- maybe I am too old and not active in the “work force”
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:26 am
I’m having more fun watching the Zoomer Dog auctions than anything else right now- just amazing on Ebay- one sells about every minute or two, for twice what people paid for them-
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:26 am
@Turtle108: understood. active in the work force = hence turtle handle u chose?
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:28 am
@eryba1:
been one of my nicknames since I was a kid- I guess I’m a slow mover.
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:29 am
zoomer dog- hot product this year? its not in short supply on amazon or toys r us as far as I can see
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:29 am
@Turtle108: I like your handle name myself!!
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:29 am
@eryba1: it’s completely sold out everywhere- can only buy on Ebay-
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:31 am
@eryba1: I picked up my 4 yr old grand daughter at school yesterday and she gave me a picture she had drawn of what she wants for Xmas- she said she keeps telling her parents about a dog but they don’t understand so she drew this picture- of a Robo Dog, I have no idea where she has even seen it, maybe a TV commercial- but she wants one!!
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 9:32 am
@eryba1: anyway, now you all know-
old ladies on bd. I have so far assumed that this bd is mostly younger, maybe mostly men? just guessing and I hope it doesn’t get me in trouble
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 9:56 am
@Turtle108: any investor is welcome, no gender boas at all
robo dog. Yes my kids want a dog as well even a robo dog. They got a furby and lost interest fast so they said forget the robo dog for now
rook
December 18, 2013 – 9:59 am
What’s the future of LNKD? is it time to buy Calls?
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 10:05 am
@rook: future was looking bright. lets see where it settles out. It was at 238 last week and as low as 207 another 13% correction in a few days on top of a month or so ago correction 250 to 205.
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 10:05 am
Either way adding to apple, goog and amzn
rkumar
December 18, 2013 – 10:09 am
any opinion on crus??
musa
December 18, 2013 – 10:11 am
market showing signs of weakness going into the last trading weak of the year but who didnt think it would. meanwhile twtr rests before it goes to 100
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 10:11 am
@rkumar: seems to be building a pretty solid base at the 19 handle.
musa
December 18, 2013 – 10:12 am
and o boy traders are mopping the floor with apple today. no china mobile deal but then again iphones have been on their network forever anyway
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 10:12 am
@musa: averages are on the + side aside for tech. Fed decision today everyone waiting for the news and market reaction
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 10:13 am
@musa: I’m using the weakness from 568 to now 545 to add more common shares in apple as well as goog, amzn and some tqnt
Cody
December 18, 2013 – 10:54 am
Sorry been MIA this week. I have spent a lot of time in the local hospital as two of my in-laws have been in there a lot the last week. Also went to our own doctor in Las Cruces yday for an appointment. And I volunteer to help out the nearby Mescalero Apache 8th Grade Basketball team with their coach, my old friend Syrus Wheeler, and had a game on Monday afternoon in Mescalero. At any rate, I’m here today, and we’ve got a Weekly Live Q&A at 2pm EST so let’s rock.
jpsr1975
December 18, 2013 – 11:21 am
guys, when do u expect the FED to taper? Today? January? March? later?
tendency
December 18, 2013 – 11:21 am
LNKD wait for 191 to go long
tendency
December 18, 2013 – 11:25 am
LNKD target 340 end of 2014
Turtle108
December 18, 2013 – 11:30 am
I’m watching MU- down 8%- “Micron drops following report that competitor will build factory”- any thoughts? is it a buy here?
jahmon
December 18, 2013 – 11:49 am
Apple to re-test 50-day moving average of $528? China mobile deal “still in negotiations”? I guess that’s the catalyst for the downturn. Ashraf Eassa says Apple needs China Mobile more than China Mobile needs Apple…
ebdavids
December 18, 2013 – 12:12 pm
hi, Cody: hope it’s going well with those folks in the hospital! I have a question relating to IEF as it relates to your prediction of tapering/rates in the next 5 to 6 months. Can you answer that now, or should I wait for the Q and A?
Cody
December 18, 2013 – 12:13 pm
@jpsr1975: March to June or sometime next summer, I’d say.
Cody
December 18, 2013 – 12:14 pm
@ebdavids: Wait for Q&A, so your rate question will go in the transcript tongiht, please.
rkumar
December 18, 2013 – 12:24 pm
im in fir lunch
Cody
December 18, 2013 – 12:30 pm
@rkumar: Did u register for the Expo?
bammer
December 18, 2013 – 1:52 pm
What are the thoughts on BitCoin now that China put down the clamps on it?
Cody
December 18, 2013 – 2:00 pm
Come join me right now for this week’s Live Q&A Chat at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat.
Cody
December 18, 2013 – 2:00 pm
@bammer: Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s cracked today and it’s in the $500s right now. I’d mentioned Monday that I wouldn’t be surprised to see it bounce between $500 and $700 for a while. I still think that, though with the panicky selling there today, it very well could move that near-term bitcoin range down to say $400-600 for a while. Very little history to go on with bitcoin, of course. http://tradingwithcody.com/2013/12/18/tradinginvesting-ideas-for-right-here-right-now-and-a-twc-lunch-in-nyc/
jahmon
December 18, 2013 – 3:18 pm
Does anyone currently have Apple calls? Cody mentioned he might buy some soon…was wondering what people had, if any?
rkumar
December 18, 2013 – 3:18 pm
I registered for the expo==cody thx
rkumar
December 18, 2013 – 3:18 pm
why is lnkd down today??
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 3:33 pm
@rkumar: Not sure this one is making me underperform today. It was halted in the morning. I did however take the opportunity to add gogo aapl amzn cien and tqnt today during the decline.
JSmith
December 18, 2013 – 3:44 pm
@jahmon: I have a couple Jan 19 (I think) $500 calls I should have sold when was in $570.
aimsue
December 18, 2013 – 3:50 pm
Any thoughts about buying bit coins direct from coinbase.com vs investing in the bitcoin investment trust by Barry Silbert?
musa
December 18, 2013 – 3:57 pm
wiw cramer caught this market move. he was the only one really buying into this dip. S&P goes to 2000
musa
December 18, 2013 – 3:58 pm
wow*
eryba1
December 18, 2013 – 3:58 pm
@musa: 2000? in 2015?
davidoosnk
December 18, 2013 – 7:00 pm
@sue coinbase will be a lot cheaper in the longer run as long as they or your wallet does not get hacked.
