Subscriber Chat Room Archive (February 20th – February 26th)
Here is the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
JSmith
February 20, 2014 – 7:29 am
@eryba1: what is your take on the FB purchase. Seems like a lot and initially people don’t seem happy.
JSmith
February 20, 2014 – 7:30 am
looks like Apple was downgraded along with FB.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:07 am
@JSmith: It IS a HEFTY SUM and as cody had said billions are being thrown around in a bubbly market. Down 2% now was 4% this morning in premarket is too early a read on if people like it or not. Lets see how it trades today.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:13 am
Facebook acquisition thwarts Google, says Stifel Stifel believes that Facebook’s (F
acquisition of WhatsApp has “muted” the risk that Google (GOOG) will be able to enter the social media and communications markets “in a real way” via acquisition. The firm thinks that Facebook’s stock would have been pressured by more than single digits if Google had bought WhatsApp. Stifel keeps a $72 price target and Buy rating on Facebook.
dannychan1
February 20, 2014 – 8:14 am
@eryba1: I have been heeding your advice to buy in tranches and recently followed your lead to purchase my first tranche of invn. My question is, based on your strategy, I can add my 2nd tranche at theses levels here and may potentially add a 3rd tranche if it drops further… How would I then know when to cut my losses if the stock falls further? Do I continue averaging down or should one cut loss?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:20 am
@dannychan1: great question- If ones style is to buy dips we look for support areas, the stocks moving avg should help there. In the case of INVN the 50 day moving avg is 19- 19.2 That should be the 1st true area of support. In addition I like to spread out the buys in at least 5% increments to the downside this way I dont end up buying all at the same basic price and never REALLy averaging down. The next area of recent support where INVN bounces from is at 17.5. INVN. Prior to that INVN created a nice floor / basing action for 2 months rt around 16. As for when to sell if things go badly. There are 2 styles buying uptrends and or adding on dips to a certain extent. For me that worst case scenario is my 10% thresh hold for a 1/2 or full position in a stock I eventually want to have.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:24 am
So if I made INVN a large holding I would NEED it to see it hold its 50 day moving avg as declines below it usually spell more downside pressure. Either way any stock needs to be watched closely and for me a 10% decline especially a stock already below its 50 day moving avg is a red flag for me. U can recover from 10% declines if U sell and reinvest in other better performing stocks , larger % losses can have U always playing catch up and never making any progress. If the stock isnt treating our investment well there are others stocks that can and deserve our attention.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:26 am
Cien is a GREAT example or a recent stock that was basing for months at 21.5-23.5. It hovered rt at its 50 day moving avg after the decline from 27 to 21.5 snf then began its rise. It took some time but it was a better entry after it found support and moved sideways.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:34 am
FRAMERS POV on FB purchase and what APPLE NEEDS to do: FB By JIM CRAMER | FEB 20, 2014 | 8:21 AM EST I can’t be two-faced. I wanted Apple to do bold things with its cash to make sure it is bigger in social, mobile, cloud and connectivity. Along comes this acquisition and it fits. I wish I had a better way to value it but isn’t this what you want from a growth company that is trying to dominate the world?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:34 am
CRAMERS POV
dannychan1
February 20, 2014 – 9:03 am
@eryba1: thanks!
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:14 am
lots of positives for FB regarding this purchase being thrown around- valuation HI is a clear issue BUT growth is the name of the game here. Growth is what investors want and with FB they had it in spades and today they have even more.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:18 am
I may use todays weakness to add some back in FB will see how the day progresses. Wanted to buy only after a larger decline in FB but will monitor Fb and the markets today.
Benb
February 20, 2014 – 9:18 am
I wonder if Cody is going to look at FB differently now that their paying 16B for an app. Almost as bad as Google buying nest for 3 Billion.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:20 am
@Benb: just more of the same, bubbly valuations trying to buy the TEEN eyes that snapchat had and either goog buys Snapchat or they TRY to go it alone.
Benb
February 20, 2014 – 9:24 am
@eryba1: But will they regret buying it for so much like Google will regret buying nest for 3 billion. 16 Billion for teenage eyes is a bad idea.
Benb
February 20, 2014 – 9:32 am
People on CNBC even saying that it doesnt make sense right now. I really cant wait to see what cody has to say about this.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:34 am
@Benb: Its NOT just for teenage eyes I was just using that as as the reason to buy whatspp vs snapchat. There are many other benefits to this buy. Its SURELY not for the teenage eyes. Teenagers turn to adults soon enough and tweens turn to teens will use something else vs whatsapp or snapchat, that universe changes fast. its more of buying into the data exchange, private network, paid service whatsapp has small revenue stream etc
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:41 am
Turtle108: GDXJ down near 7% yesterday May take it off my screen and stick with GDX.
Golfcar101
February 20, 2014 – 9:43 am
not sure what everyone else thinks site needs timeout time raised always having to log back in throughout the day
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:43 am
@Golfcar101: Ill ask bill about that, good point.
Golfcar101
February 20, 2014 – 9:44 am
thanks
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:46 am
nice rebound early so far in INVN today
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 9:49 am
@eryba1: sorry
as you know, it will outperform in both directions- gold stks are tough. if the bull is truly back, i want to have some position in jrs miners, and for most GDXJ is the safest/easiest- sorry to get you going on it. you have to scale in on down days. so far today(right this minute) it is up 2x’s what GDX is up- but i know that doesn’t help on a 7% down day.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:51 am
@Turtle108: I have it on my screen as of this week, I was watching it, yest 7% decline is quite volatile, yes up near 2% today. I opted when I sold my GLD to add more GDX on a pullback and I did so this morning. What I am REALLy looking for is now to see of GOLD breaks the parallel action with stocks? Does Gold take on a new bull market for itself and rise away from what stocks and the averages do? 1350 is a near term ceiling as many have pointed out. Lets watch and see
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:54 am
@Turtle108: I did not buy GDXJ FWIW- We are all here to make our own after we do our DD. I feel more comfortable with GDX at this point than GDXJ
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 9:55 am
@erbya1: Thoughts on AAPL decline today? Anyone picking up any shares?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:55 am
apl looks interesting here at 100 day moving avg 531 after its 10% rise now a 4% pullback.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:56 am
thats apple looks interesting here
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 9:58 am
@eryba1: no one knows what will happen. in 2008 many expected gold to protect from the downturn, and it did not- i am expecting the gold bull to continue and the stks to continue rising- that being said, i have stops. i do not know if the metal stks will be able to stay strong in the face of a downturn.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 9:58 am
The only Caveat I have is the broader market and the potential for a further pullback after the straight up move in 8 straight days. I think the QQQ will see 94 but first a pullback to 87ish, lets see if that plays itself out.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:00 am
@Turtle108: I asked that as today there is weakness and VERY MINOR at that in the market avg’s for now yet a STRONG rise in GDX, seems market wants to propel gold higher and BREAK AWAY from the stocks averages, Yesterday Ukraine issues, Shoe bombing alert and now gold rising.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 10:00 am
woops- didn’t mean to send that yet- but it is a good reason to have physical gold as the base of any gold pf. i like CEF as a way to hold physical in the mkt, but nothing beats pays ical in your own possession.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 10:04 am
@eryba1: well, your observation is correct- i’m expecting gold to rise right now no matter what, but i know well enough i could be very wrong. so am prepared for all scenarios
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 10:05 am
@eryba1: did you have a chance to look at SLW? i really do think the royalty cos are the best way to play – SLW is my largest position.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:05 am
@Turtle108: lets see if we get breakaway action and follow through, for now 1350 a ceiling but lets see if it tries to hit it and the more hits 1350 takes the more likelihood it breaks.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:09 am
from a fund manager friend of mine on the Fb purchase: This is a strong deal for FB, as it increases its international presence and solidifies its efforts in instant messaging. But most importantly, FB is going on the offensive to gain additional share of the consumer’s time spent, or engagement levels, which is key to the FB story and success. This is exactly the kind of thing we want Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) to be doing, and yet it seems to be such a struggle for that tech giant. We will hold onto AAPL for the valuation, its cash-rich position and the eventual new product potential, but we have little visibility at this juncture on any near-term catalysts and will plan to trim this back and take the gains into strength.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:11 am
It sends out 500 million images a day and 20 billion messages per day. It is used by 44% of the users in the U.S., Brazil, China, South Africa, and China at least once per week. This is ahead of the 35% usage rate at FB Messenger, 28% from Tencent’s customers and 19% at Twitter. On a user basis, it easily surpass Kik Interactive, which has 100 million users and Japan’s Line, with 300 million users. So, at 19x 2017 revenues it is expensive — no question there — but the numbers are impressive and we believe the company will be successful monetizing this asset over time &Importantly, the messaging end-market potential is significant. Industry data shows that in 2012 there were 19 billion app-based message per day and is expected to grow 50 billion app-based messages per day in 2014
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:15 am
adding some FB here at 66.4
Jeffhok1970
February 20, 2014 – 10:18 am
@eryba1: me too. I like the purchase.
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 10:19 am
@erbya1: bought FB 66.00
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:20 am
@Jeffhok1970: again not a lot I did 1/2 a tranche, as I sold closer to 68 and this FB purchase of Whatsapp may put in a higher floor for the stock. Lets give it some room either way. More zoned in on Gold, if it can break away from market averages and work on that overhead 1350 level
jakef1111
February 20, 2014 – 10:25 am
@eryba1: all those numbers sound great but wheres the revenue #s? Just wondering…
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:31 am
@jakef1111: I think FB has done aGREAT job or working to bring those #’s and monetize them for itself and now the market believes it can do the same for its new purchase.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:33 am
Even though we had WEAK china #’s overnight and futures SANK on taht new overnight the baltic dry index was once again higher today by + 4 to 1164. The yield is rising on the 10 yr to 2.76% up 1 % transports people are making a fuss over its direction, making head and shldrs top or basing here trying to make head and shldrs bottom.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 10:41 am
The purchase FB has made is interesting. This gives them access to an alternative platform that is capable of scaling to handle the volume of customers they have today. If Whatapp went public the guess is it would be worth more than Zuckerberg paid because they would use FB as the basis and Whatapp already has a mobile strategy. In fact is essentially in the voip space because it does not need a mobile network to work and the customer saves 10 dollars a month or more. Thus the $1 dollar they charge once a client gets to year two is paid without hesitation. This platform has the ability to FaceTime like functionality in the future without a mobile network. There are all sorts of ways to grow with this new architecture and Zuck and Johann now it. My vote is with @eryba1: buy.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:42 am
@chrismossey: do we have a 3rd??
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:43 am
@chrismossey: all joking aside the small pullback so far is because of valuation otherwise if invetsors did not like the deal it would have easily been down multiples of todays decline.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:44 am
@chrismossey: VERY good points Chris, well said.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 10:44 am
I had stops in last night after the announcement that I have pulled off now.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 10:46 am
@eryba1: A side note here, Zuckerberg just added a slew of talent in this purchase. This is a big benefit and now they are locked up with RSU’s. As a person that gets them. They are a good use of company stock.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 10:47 am
@eryba1: LOL! if you need a 3rd, I’ll give it to you- holding a nice chunk of FB , hoping for the long haul.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:47 am
@chrismossey: I have the app myself. I used it for 2 weeks as my cousin was in NYC for a 2 week vacation and asked me to use the app to contact her daily while here by text or phone call. As for now cell networks are VERY expensive when one goes abroad / international plans and instead this app is FREE over wifi. It is easy to use, the interface / look of the app could use a cleaner nicer look but in terms of using it, its pretty straight forward.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:47 am
@chrismossey: the extra kicker 3-4B of RSU for a 50 person company was greedy but FB agreed
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 10:49 am
@eryba1: better than using cash though. This expense is capitalized on a ratable basis as they vest and overtime this will be a nat on FB’s books.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:50 am
@chrismossey: good point, bur greedy for a 50 person organization. News was that GOOG wanted to buy them for 10B but since FB anteed up more FB just wanted to keep it OUT of GOOG’s hands
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 10:56 am
All, I saw this presentation on Bitcoin on secondary markets website. I troll the site to try and insider shares from time to time. They have largely stopped doing that but they have a bitcoin product that is worth looking it. They do some great education of bitcoin on the site. I think the presentation is worth a look for all and checking out their site is a big help. It goes a bit deeper on the evolution of bitcoin, why, the mining aspect, etc. This good to add to what Cody discusses and we all know he is excited that very few people at the investor conference knew much about bitcoin. enjoy – http://www.bitcointrust.co/#Deck
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 10:59 am
JNPR up 4%, INVN 3+% yet I think stocks want to consolidate and that GOLD is the bigger story for now.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:00 am
@eryba1: from your view, what is the gold story. Should I be adding? Been on vacation and have zero gold exposure at the moment.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:03 am
@chrismossey: I sold some GDX at 26.4 last week and the rest of my GLD at 127.5. SHould U add here after 2.5% rise in GDX, yes 1st trance.
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 11:04 am
@erbya1: I bought another tranche of INVN at 20.0 this am. Very nice move since then
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 11:06 am
@eryba1: GDX /GLDstill below your sale, but for how long!? – GDXJ up 4.8%- it’s a wild child, i know-
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:06 am
@chrismossey: Reasons for gold, Rising interest rates, more global unease, Ukraine tensions even if abating a bit for now, Last night another shoe bombing alert for airlines. I Do want to see Gold break away from stocks and not just trade in lock step but rather trade higher on its own. Lets see how it reacts as it gets near 1350 an ounce once more. Gld or GDX were great buys at 121 and 23-24 respectively when we were discussing then a few weeks ago
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:07 am
@Turtle108: GLD sold at 127.5 I added GDX this morning what I sold last week and then some this morning at 25.9
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 11:07 am
@eryba1: personally, if i had none, i would scale in, just like we do with our tech stks-
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:07 am
@lfnunnally: invn gaining back some of what it lost yesterday
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 11:07 am
@eryba1: nice!!! good luck with this trade!
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:08 am
@Turtle108: thats is what I told chris to do, wish he would have added a few weeks back when we were adding at the #’s I mentioned above but never to late to at least start
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 11:08 am
SLW? anyone?
jakef1111
February 20, 2014 – 11:12 am
Anyone gambling on pcln tonight? Priced for perfection should have a 100$ move
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:13 am
@chrismossey: vacation- then why bother??
Cody has often spoken about His gold prices way above 2,000 an ounce, Cramer has preached after golds decline from 1900 to 1200 to add it as a hedge and his target is 2,000, I think it can BREAK that 1350 sometime soon and gain its own traction and breakaway from the market in terms of mirroring its actions. I Got rid of my GLD and instead will use the GDX when it like other stocks gets too hi an RSI or ramps too much I will trade around a core position that I bought at 24 handle.
jahmon
February 20, 2014 – 11:16 am
Seeking Alpha full of articles this morning says the FB purchas was the worst ever, on par with BofA buying Countrywide
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:17 am
@jahmon: the market will determine that over time, BOFA was forced to BUY Countrywide, this was not the case, GOOG was bidding
Benb
February 20, 2014 – 11:20 am
@jahmon: I agree with whoever wrote those articles.
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 11:22 am
@erbya1: do you think aapl will hold here around 533?
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:22 am
@eryba1: On gld and gdx I sold on the first touch of 124 and 24 a few weeks back. I had to raise cash for the second restaurant we are building. So I am looking at starting a small position now. Will start with gdx in this mini consolidation and go from here.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:24 am
@lfnunnally: I like apple on this barclays downgrade. Their position does not include any new announcements. I think cramer is right on this. You do not tell the world you bought 14 or so billion of your own stock unless something big is up.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:24 am
@chrismossey: 2nd restaurant sounds like a good place to diversify!! good for u!
rzepeda
February 20, 2014 – 11:25 am
@chrismossey: What kind of restaraunt?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:25 am
@lfnunnally: hold 533? If market takes a further turn south we could retest 500 I am sure apple wants to use more of its buyback at 500 vs 533
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:25 am
@eryba1: think you. It is however its value against my net worth is starting add up so with each one it will mean less diversification and more concentration.
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 11:25 am
@chrismossey: thanks – my basis is around 504. I think I’m going to wait and see.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 11:26 am
@chrismossey: congrats! when we opened our second grocery store, book keeper said, “it’s like having twins, so much work!”- it was, but well worth it, hope it goes well for you- always best to invest in yourself!
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:28 am
@lfnunnally: I am adding one 1 contract of the jan 15 600’s here. And will add every $7 dollar decline from here. Apple 3.5% from Monday. 500 would be 10.2% pullback. You have the Tim Cook put as the backstop to trade against.
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 11:30 am
@chrismossey: If I traded options, I would consider that, but I only buy/sell common. It will be interesting to see how the day ends.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:31 am
@chrismossey: yes 500 backstop with 20+ Billion as some protection
Lets see where the markets want to go, trade digest overbought position we are in now or further pullback.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:33 am
@lfnunnally: if Just common as myself give it some room to move, If U bot 504, wait as just 3-4% decline from 550. If it hits 500 again I believe that will be where I will add more to it as My last sale as of last week was 542-543
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:35 am
@rzepeda: Providence Coal Fired Pizza http://www.providencecoalfirepizza.com
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:37 am
@Turtle108: Thank you, we will see. The first one is doing very well. The SBA almost put a nail in this one as they did to understand the demographics of the area well. We actually bought the building as well so it is a pretty significant lending transaction that has a commercial real estate element as well.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:37 am
@Golfcar101: Bill just jacked up the log in w/o being logged out due to inactivity to 3 hrs I think it was at 30 min before. I am asking him if possible for even more than 3 hrs. Will let everyone know.
eyba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:39 am
@chrismossey: buying the building if not to leverged is THE BEST WAY TO GO, this way no unexpected higher rents or other and some assets where the restaurant is located as well.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:40 am
@eryba1: agreed the Real Estate was worth the buy even without our business. Appraisal came in much higher than we paid so the numbers work.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:41 am
@chrismossey: very fortunate. good start!
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:57 am
may add that 2nd part of 1/2 tranche of FB sellers about done?
joe.evicel
February 20, 2014 – 11:58 am
Bitcoin down almost 18%
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:58 am
if anyone interested on NBC at noon time so about 3 min from now USA GOLD medal Hockey game Womens vs Canada who won GOLD in last years olympics
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 11:59 am
@eryba1: a bit bullish on FB, you have flipped from a few days ago. Now I am thinking I need to take the other side.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 11:59 am
@joe.evicel: today? at .587 here- http://bitcoinity.org/markets
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:00 pm
@chrismossey: this acquisition is new news need to take everything into consideration. Must stay flexible. markets may digest sideways as U had though vs my lower targets to be hit before next uptrend
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:01 pm
last olympics, not last years olympics- type o
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:04 pm
@chrismossey: OK 2nd half of a full tranche now purchased, another deciding factor was my friend and co manager of Cramers charitable trust wo she sold Fb at I think it was 55 or so and was all out ( mind U she bought NOW @ 58-60 and is currently trading at 66+_) well after this FB acquisition she has today bought into Fb BECAUSE of this Acquisition.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:07 pm
@eryba1: Is your friend Stephanie L?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:07 pm
@chrismossey: chris- WHAt NO FB targeted ADS for your pizza restaurant for a USA womens GOLD medal GAMe vs # 1 team in the world CANADA promo on this beautiful sunny near 50 day in the tri state area???
I know U r on vacation
anyone else run your promotions? midday Lunch special??
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:07 pm
@chrismossey: stephanie link- yes
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:08 pm
Does she share Cramers same enthusiasm for Apple?
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 12:08 pm
@erbya1: I did exactly what she did with FB!
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 12:09 pm
@chrismossey: erbya1: IMO, the goal is to buy the bldg in your personal name , have the business pay you rent which pays the mortgage. that way you can take income in rent, depending on your tax situation. one day sell the business and collect rent.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:09 pm
@chrismossey: 1st here is what cramer JUST said about APPLE, TWTR and FB- and when he says WE he means stephanie and hmself- “We like this FB deal and you can only imagine that WhatsApp would have come public at about the same valuation Twitter has. Again, if Apple has bough this company instead of FB i would have been quite pleased. Better use of cash. Makes me like AAPL less.”
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@eryba1: Interesting – It makes think even more that apple has something going on, some direction we are not considering.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@Turtle108: that is definitely ONE approach.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:13 pm
@Turtle108: yes RE is in a separate LLC. My partners and I all own a bunch of RE.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:14 pm
@chrismossey: it could, or does not have a social strategy and rather be the 1st and last link in a 3 link chain. 1st the hardware even Ipad, iphone slim light long lasting hi def bigger screen great OS, 3rd link the transactions middle man connecting accounts from itunes users to use on all services. BTW- the 2nd link would be a FB, an app that people go to for news into and the like / content. IMO
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@chrismossey: added that 1st tranche in GDX today?
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@eryba1: on apple – I am thinking beyond mobile payments. There is a direction no one is considering.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:17 pm
@chrismossey: what direction is that?
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@eryba1: perhaps something bigger towards ibeacon into the supply chain or into medical, deeper dive into retail applications. My sense it is something that will surprise a bit.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@chrismossey: yes we have heard rumors of those aspects of apple direction, cars, medical etc
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@eryba1: added the fb back I trimmed and added gdx. really wanted to pull the trigger on gdxj but the pop there is strong.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:22 pm
@eryba1: could more the house or car area. We are all focused on their core bus and I think they are creating another core.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:22 pm
@chrismossey: yesterday GDXJ down near 8% today 1/2 of it is regained
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:23 pm
@chrismossey: on GDXJ I understand some think large mines will buy the juniors but for me the volatility ion GDXJ is excessive for my accounts
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:24 pm
@eryba1: thank you for all showing the disciplined side. I think it helps myself and others a good deal.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:26 pm
@chrismossey: U R welcome! THERE must be some discipline. and OHH I know when things going up it feels like U should / could be all undisciplined but when things go south in a HURRY that undisciplined side can have U giving ALL the gains back and then MUCH MORE!!
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:27 pm
@eryba1: 1/4 tranche of GDXj filled. Like yelp, I needed to get in to be involved with it.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:27 pm
btw – speaking of yelp, I am adding there.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:28 pm
@chrismossey: U will find as if we are fortune to be UP YTD and growing our accounts its better to be a bit more cautious at times, have more cash whats 1-2% more upside vs risking 5-10% downside in the averages that as we have seen can start at ANY TIME and 10-30% declines in our holdings
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:29 pm
@chrismossey: yelp basing at 90 its 10 day moving avg and FB seems to want to end the day in the green
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:37 pm
someone asked about apple, if the markets base here = go sideways to digest the overbought nature apple could VERY WELL find support here at ots 100 day moving avg @ 530
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 12:41 pm
@eryba1: making one or two more portfolio adjustments and then back to vacation. It has been fun catching up.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 12:43 pm
@chrismossey: enjoy the time off and hope today wasnt too big a distraction from 80 and miami sun? NYC near 50 and sunny and the arctic melt begins for a few days as we see 50 for the next few days.
slonda
February 20, 2014 – 1:00 pm
@eryba1: hi elad, some news on LNN or just trading action/correction?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:01 pm
@slonda: looks like the latter unless company specific news that I dont see. Its had a great run so a pullback to maybe 84-85 possible.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@chrismossey: This from Stephanie now on the FB deal in her own words: “the price was absurd. but it doesn’t matter – they doing most of it in stock. the growth potential is enormous.”
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:09 pm
FB now in the green down yest A/H 5% today 4% and now on the + side lets see the close as volume is on the hi side AVG vol 62M daily avg now 77M with about 3 hrs left
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:22 pm
@eryba1: I come back to the following on FB – as a restaurant owner, the return we get for advertising on FB the push posts is amazing. It is in the 1000’s of percent. This was stated on their conference call. Yelp and open table are the same way.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 1:23 pm
did you guys see the FB revenue video i posted at scurfy?
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 1:24 pm
scutify
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:24 pm
@chrismossey: they are the social leaders FB, YELP, TRIP. Each is rewarded for growth by this market.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:25 pm
@eryba1: so a pairs trade possibility off this thesis is buy social and short print.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:26 pm
@chrismossey: U have first hand knowledge and $$ facts how much your ad budget is per specific campaign or other and what those $ and % returns are for each? Do U interact with any people sales rep or other or all done online?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:26 pm
@chrismossey: rather buy more social and forget about the short print. IMO
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 1:26 pm
I have a stk for you guys- JNUG – it’s 3x’s NUGT- LOL. you have to know I am kidding- but look at it and there are options on it. this is gambling, I know that- just thought for fun I’d show you.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:26 pm
@chrismossey: I understand the hedge concept, but dont think if social pullback print will rise
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:27 pm
We do interact with sales for yelp and open table but not FB. However FB, minds data and gives the admin ideas on how to build awareness.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:28 pm
@Turtle108: 3 X Nugt which is on its own 3X GDX = 9X leverged= one needs to see of they have any nuggets at all in their Noggin.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:29 pm
@chrismossey: thats very futuristic, minds data all online all on your own no human interaction, yet humans show up at the restaurant as a result.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:33 pm
@eryba1: yes, they allow me to target based on the interests and posts people make. They are unbelievable at aligning a business with people who care about what you are saying. As an example every so often we will get a request from someone in Ohio or PA to bring the restaurant there as they slip into the bucket of targets because the net is casted just wide enough.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:35 pm
@chrismossey: franchising requests?
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:35 pm
No – people wanting the type of food we offer. However, I view those as possible location scenarios with the proper due diligence.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:36 pm
@chrismossey: how do U monitor or directly link people who come in from the FB target AD U were running promo? Its not like Groupon where people buy your promo in advance so U have hard #’s in advance
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:37 pm
You can post a promo for them to mention. It shows up in our conversations and likes to the page. Sales are growing so some is attributed to its success.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:38 pm
@chrismossey: mention or print promo that I can understand. I am sure U can see an influx of reservations if U take them soon after an ad is sent out or higher turnout is seen for a particular night.
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:39 pm
yes, we see the benefit. We ask them to mention the post usually. The take up rate is about 10% on a given night.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:39 pm
from a woman who is a SLAVE by her own definition to the internals and charts that I read daily this from her now: The Transports seem to be making that little head and shoulders bottom I had in my column Wednesday morning. Maybe the Bank Index follows?
Golfcar101
February 20, 2014 – 1:40 pm
@eryba1: just got back in thanks for the time out update
Golfcar101
February 20, 2014 – 1:41 pm
@eryba1: been following all the gold talk for last few days have no gold as of now would you start on gdx today or see if it pulls back some
chrismossey
February 20, 2014 – 1:42 pm
@eryba1: FB shining like a champ on this buy. Pretty amazing. They are getting treated like goog does on acquisitions on this one which is positive. Watch out for another big acquisition, GOOG won’t stand pat.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:43 pm
@Golfcar101: Very hard to time it exactly as we all know, we have been talking and pushing an entry into GLD or GDX for weeks now up 10-15% since then. 1st tranche here? yesterday close or this morning was best, but if U have none I would say a tranche or 1/2 tranche as I dont like to chase and its up 3% for the GDX for the day.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@chrismossey: yes goog has snapchat to perhaps buy, Viber was bought 2 weeks ago 100M subscribers / users. Whats left Tango?
Golfcar101
February 20, 2014 – 1:45 pm
thank you
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:46 pm
@chrismossey: http://www.computergeekblog.com/the-top-10-voip-calling-apps/
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:49 pm
I am watching JDSU and have just added a tranche here looks to perhaps start a new leg higher off its 10 & 100 day moving avg where its bouncing off.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:50 pm
team USA 2-0 over canada just started 3rd period
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 1:52 pm
@chrismossey: I dont like to give targets but off this reversal to upside for FB it could see 73-75 before getting a very hi RSI reading and time to trim again if markets hold in. Will be watching for this.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:07 pm
Stephanie is now selling some of her even small position in APPLE and now buying more FB at these levels- We see more upside to FB, with its strong business momentum, and remain impressed with its most recent quarterly results. Fourth-quarter revenues rose 63% y/y, it had 306% y/y mobile growth and 92% price increases for ads, higher engagement q/q to 61.6%, along with 580 bps of margin expansion. We think the WhatsApp deal is a smart move for the long run, but admit it was a pricey deal. But it’s paying for most of it with stock and has the currency to do so. The user-base growth is impressive at 450 million users and that is poised to grow to 1 billion over the next two years, which, under the FB brand, could come faster than expected.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:07 pm
he deal expands Facebook’s international reach, especially to Europe, Latin America and Asia, and expands its mobile product profile to further diversify and increase its consumer data collection. We don’t think FB would have made this deal if it didn’t have strong visibility about its current business trends and on the dip we’ll add more.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:09 pm
This move by this manager that people are GROWING TIRED of AAPLE- all we wait for are new product cycles. When there is news when it comes it should POP the stock if its new, diff category and more but managers and investors want growth and for now APPLE isn’t in that group and FB CLEARLY is.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:20 pm
usa canada just tied 2-2 54 seconds left in 3rd period
slonda
February 20, 2014 – 2:25 pm
Anyone watching bitcoin action?? Can you comment pls?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:26 pm
@slonda: what R U seeing its at .584 on my screen diff exchanges diff $$.
slonda
February 20, 2014 – 2:27 pm
Where to buy bitcoin? no transaction yet, my broker can’t settle it, thanks
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:27 pm
@slonda: cody posted that in his e-mail to all yesterday. I dont own any myself so not sure would refer U to Codys e-mail.
slonda
February 20, 2014 – 2:28 pm
@eryba1: i watched bitcointicker.co and it is 112 USD!
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:28 pm
slonda
February 20, 2014 – 2:31 pm
@eryba1: 112usd/BTC
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 2:33 pm
I sold out of all AAPL with a nice profit and made a significant tranche buy of FB at 66.00.
rzepeda
February 20, 2014 – 2:34 pm
I am admittedly uneducated on Bitcoins, but what is the draw to invest in them at $300 – $600 per coin where the risk that they go to $0 is very real and the info is limited, versus shares in say AAPL around $530, which you know what they do and how they do it.
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 2:34 pm
I have been selling AAPL in tranches since 545. I have no regrets.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:36 pm
@lfnunnally: enjoy the gains. If / when apple announces new product and or product category will U want back in? That is what I think of when I sell some vs sell all.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:38 pm
@rzepeda: I feel the same way. I do not trust bitcoin at this point. The GOV like we have seen in china and other say we wont accept it and it crashes. There are other investments I would rather make where I dont feel I will wake up and the gov says its not a real currency and we are shutting it down. IMO
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 2:44 pm
@erbya1: I had a feeling you were going to say that! Since AAPL is so expensive, and I only buy common stock, I added to other positions in my portfolio. If it goes down to around 500, I will probably buy back in. In the meantime there are so many other opportunities. I cannot tell you how valuable you have been to me, and I’m sure so many of us. I am very grateful.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:53 pm
USA womens hockey loses gold gets silver, Canada come back from 2-0 to win 3-0
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:54 pm
@lfnunnally: 1ST glad U R benefitting from the action, advise, exchange of ideas etc. This TWC site is becoming very valuable to us all.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 2:55 pm
@eryba1: very interesting stuff- thanks for sharing.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@lfnunnally: apple expensive yes but never look at an investment from the share price its NEEDS to be seen from the point of capital and the % of ones capital from his total investable capital and the % returns on a investment by investment basis. So now that issue is out of the way on a PE basis apple is CHEAP, but a cheap stock is that way for a reason= GROWTH. RT now apple will soon be in a sweet product cycle release point and new category which is WHEN U want to be invested. However to have it underperform and if one has too much capital there while seeing the likes of ZNGA CIEN TQNT GOOG etc working for us I understand. That is why I hold a core position and as it moves up and down I trade around that core position
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@Turtle108: interesting? olympics?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:01 pm
BIG volume and BIG reversal in FB now up 2%
lfnunnally
February 20, 2014 – 3:03 pm
@erbya1: you are correct. It was the largest position of my total capital, throwing my portfolio out of balance. I do agree that based on PE it is cheap. It also can be extremely volatile, and that became worrisome.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:04 pm
@lfnunnally: That is a PERFECT reason to diversify, never have too much in one stock that isnt performing and even if one stock is performing YET growing in % as a total of your investable funds and gets too large sell rips and buy dips, sell rips in example a CIEN FB ZNGA and buy something that hasnt performed as well or start a new position.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@eryba1: my page hadn’t refreshed, I didn’t see all the comments between, I was referring to all of the FB comments-
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:08 pm
@Turtle108: Ok- NP so we all understand, what the market sees, why FB is being rewarded for now, etc
jakef1111
February 20, 2014 – 3:13 pm
Glad i sold my uvxy calls for a small profit….i feel for anyone short this mrkt… Althought i wish i left my aapl short i initiated at 550
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:18 pm
yes another gauge / stat / chart to keep track of, another tool to help us get a sense of where the markets are intrenally. It is in a bullish position. Scroll to the bottom to have a look what this chart of insider transactions is flashing as of this monday vs where we were MID January – http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html
jakef1111
February 20, 2014 – 3:20 pm
@eryba1: this market reminds me more and more of the crazy bubble market of 1999…. Were you in the market during that big collapse?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:23 pm
@jakef1111: BUBBLE? Aside from some of the buyouts these growth companies have earnings BIG earnings so VERY diff and PE’s not outlandish compared to 1999.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 3:31 pm
look at gold rippin’ it up. gold stks are soaring. I think the volatility will only get worse tho.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:32 pm
@jakef1111: PE’s back then were in the 80-100’s not today GOOG is like 15 on 1025 #’s AAPL 8 ex cash, FB’s PE trading at PE of 41 for 2015 #’s yet growing like a weed. Interest rates back then were near 6%. I am looking now 10 yr yield was near 6.9% today 2.75%
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:33 pm
@Turtle108: volatility- Perhaps But on a % basis a new uptrend may be forming lets see the next time we get near 1350. Thus diversify MISSY!!!
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 3:35 pm
@eryba1: you tell me when- i am listening. but if you are going to hold even GDX prepare for extreme volatility. gold stks are like that.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:37 pm
@Turtle108: me? U R the wise sage of the group having been through this before, more seasoned I would say!! ::
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:39 pm
@Turtle108: I will do my best as will cody, If this is a new bull market for Gold we will all know, there are rips and pullbacks to create a healthy chart and price action. I do believe as rates rise so will the $ of gold and a it will further be seen as a hedge, another investment vehicle at some point as well IF/ when it is confirmed a new bull market in the shinny metal is at hand.
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 3:44 pm
@eryba1: thx.
I guess for the entire bull mkt I have thought one of my goals would be to hold gold stks, and when interest rates rose high enough, last cycle they went really high, 14%? 16? 20? I don’t know exact off hand, but then trade the gold stks for treasuries with very high yields. and ride into the sunset. high quality blue chip cos also. so agree with you .
slonda
February 20, 2014 – 3:48 pm
@eryba1: elad, appreciate all your insights, I do thank you!! Your opinion – yelp or yhoo as 1.tranche buy here and now please
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:49 pm
@slonda: yelp for me!
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:50 pm
@Turtle108: I dont think we will see rates at 14 16 20 again IMO. Those were a gold mine!
Pun intended!
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 3:50 pm
JNUG up 20% NUGT up 11% GDXJ up 7%- just FYI.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:52 pm
I think as cody thinks we see rates at 5-7% as we did in 2000 and then lock in some treasuries or cd’s for those rates. I am wondering under what scenario we CAN EVER see rates anywhere near 14-20%??
Turtle108
February 20, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@eryba1: one thing that has always stuck with me is something richard russell once wrote:” the one thing that is certain in investing is the cycle from over valuation, to under valuation, and back. ” like a pendulum. I’m not saying I know where rates are going at all, and especially when.
jakef1111
February 20, 2014 – 3:56 pm
@eryba1: i understand the difference between then and now not nearly the same but there are some reminders is all im saying.. Fb twtr lnkd to name a few the biotech space has pes that are being stretched granted with growth 3d space as well…. Just feels like up day after up day… Bad news means more fed help good news means economy is going well…. Just get nervous still long but hedge here and there on the other hand you have a market that over a ten yr span is recovering and making up for depressed prices
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:58 pm
@jakef1111: correct the LOST decade for the S&p. Sure U will always have sectors or certain stocks that are stretched in every market, but overall I think we are not there yet.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 3:59 pm
@Turtle108: pendulum- 100% as the market does internally in upswings and corrections markets get too enthusiastic and then to downbeat Fead gauge at 12 and extreme at 90’s + it happens.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:01 pm
@Turtle108: We just need to try and navigate thru those ups and downs, Sell rips and other indicators that tell us we are too hi, or use our gut instincts as well, read, watch, listen and these senses and understanding of the markets should sharpen and grown wiser hopefully. make good decisions and repeat them if rewarding emotionally mentally and financially and try to make more of those then the ones that arent fruitful.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:29 pm
gld and gdx volume at the close today was 20-30% more volume than avg days which is what U want to see on up days and not what U want to see on down days with follow through of the same magnitude.
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:42 pm
@eryba1: Saw all the discussion today on GDX and GDXJ. interesting and intriguing. in yesterday weekly Q&A, Cody said he’d consider GDX calls if there were another “crash”in GLD (5-10% — he wasn’t clear). but (having lost earlier on GDX calls) I’m getting intrigued about getting back in. (I know you don’t believe in options.) My basic Q: the differences between GDK and GDZJ — is it just volatility? Which would be a good (tranche) entry point if i think/you advise it’s time to move back in? Thanks!
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:43 pm
(I of course meant “differences between GDX and GDXJ “above.)
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:45 pm
WHATSAPP Everyone!!- The day looked bleak beginning with WEAK China data overnight when futures tanked down -60, S&P down 9 Naz down 13+ and Fb was down 5% after announcing a mostly stock buy of Whatsapp. WIth 450M users and growing investors took the purchase with a grain of salt initially and eventually let sellers exit and buyers enter. FB avg daily vol is 62M today we saw 130M as people believe this will end up being a good purchase for FB. The stock trended sideways most of the morning then began its rise and we spoke here about the possibility of it going green and it did to the tune of NEW HI’s hitting 70.11 and closing at 69.63. 10 year yield rose to 2.75%, baltic dry index in the face of weak china data was good another + day there, Fear gauge is now at 47,
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:48 pm
The transports were the best performers today maybe putting in a head and shoulders bottom as many fear it was forming the opposite as a top. The action is very for the right stocks with Gold and the GDX regaining its losses from yesterday, Invn and jdsu are stabilizing, sndk is doing well and I hope your accounts are outperforming the S&P which is still down YTD. Have a GN and I’ll C un tom morning.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:48 pm
@ebdavids: we have discusses this many times. Ok once more then
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:52 pm
GDX are major gold minors and pays a div 1% or so and the minors see something like 80% of their revenue from gold, GDXJ are Junior minors no dividend and something like 70% or less of revenue comes from their gold. GDXJ is twice as volatile most of the time as GDX even though GDXJ is not leveraged to the GDX in any way..
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:53 pm
I’m so sorry if this is a repeat request of mine. Unaware of that! but your answer is quite clear and valuable, and i appreciate it. (And won’t ask again. if i do, take me out and shoot me!)
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:53 pm
@ebdavids: As for an entry point. We dont like to chase and prefer pullbacks in strong stocks and charts like FB acted and demonstarted today down 3-4% today then ended up 3% at some point today closing up 2.3%. 1st tranche hard to tell U to buy here up 4% and when we were saying buy at 23 range some 12-15% below todays close.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:54 pm
@ebdavids: no shooting- dont worry- a minor stoning perhaps then??
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:55 pm
Stones are good. Got any good stocks in that category?
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:55 pm
@ebdavids: If U dont want to wait for a pullback and want to have a1st tranche then OK I guess so here, lets see what tomorrow brings.
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:56 pm
Thank you, Elad. Goodnight. ~Ed
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:56 pm
@ebdavids: yes I can print some at work on a 3D printer- SSYS in that category on a pullback.
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 4:56 pm
@ebdavids: GN
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:57 pm
! Wow, thereal KINDS of ways to make money. And plastic stones will hurt less.
ebdavids
February 20, 2014 – 4:57 pm
thereal = there are all
eryba1
February 20, 2014 – 8:09 pm
Forgot to add. Stephanie did increase the target jim Cramer and her have for FB after today’s acquisition : The bottom line is that the most recent quarter was stellar, the growth potential in users and mobile monetization superb and WhatsApp brings another new leg of growth to the company. Our target is $85.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 7:22 am
Sbarro pizza closing 150 company owned stores in malls as foot traffic and shoppers thin out.- http://www.thewire.com/business/2014/02/sbarro-close-150-stores-spark-lackluster-mall-pizza-scarcity/358281/
carl
February 21, 2014 – 8:13 am
@cody Is this a good time to short Tesla, or is it too late. Also, can I still buy shares in scutify? I missed the Feb 15 th deadline.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 8:47 am
Juniper estimates, target raised at MKM FEB 21, 2014 | 7:59 AM EST Shares of JNPR now seen reaching $34, according to MKM Partners. Estimates also increased, as the company is cutting costs and buying back stock. Buy rating.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 8:47 am
Priceline.com numbers boosted at Benchmark FEB 21, 2014 | 8:02 AM EST Shares of PCLN now seen reaching $1,550, according to Benchmark. Estimates also upped, as room-night growth is accelerating. Buy rating.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:00 am
GM- We have a slightly positive opening this morning. The yield on the 10yr is rising to 2.777 up about .85%. The baltic dry index is once again up that makes about 2 weeks of positive upside in small increments + 11 today to 1175. Gold is flat premarket and there seems to be a positive out of Ukraine where early elections have been agreed upon by the opposition. How this market closes today may tell us a bit about people feeling comfortable about being invested over the weekend. One caveat we have been up 9 out of 10 days so sideways action or a pullback may develop. Lets keep an eye out for this and how our individual stocks perform.
rzepeda
February 21, 2014 – 9:01 am
GM all…TGIF as well
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:12 am
Wanted to ask this morning after yesterdays nice rise how your portfolios are doing as the S&P the benchmark for most mangers is down about 1/2 a percent YTD? How are your portfolios faring? what stocks are acting best? what do U have too much of or too little of and need to change the mix etc? Lets hear if U dont mind. A little financial house keeping. Maybe you can be helped if help is needed. Lets hear.
Turtle108
February 21, 2014 – 9:14 am
@eryba1: g’morning- can you tell me who to contact for a membership problem? is it Bill Fox?
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:14 am
@Turtle108: yes bill would be the contact person, u have his email address
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:14 am
?
Turtle108
February 21, 2014 – 9:15 am
yes I do, thanks
Golfcar101
February 21, 2014 – 9:28 am
cien,fb,fslr,hal,dvn, performing very well xone bought to early and to much also bac a drag
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:30 am
@Golfcar101: nice nat gas play in there with DVN, nat gas spiked over $5 on this polar dome 2 month cold period so far. Good diversification as well.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:31 am
Haliburton and DEVON few companies in the oil and oil services sector doing well = just nat gas as oil stocks have been badly underperforming.
Golfcar101
February 21, 2014 – 9:33 am
@eryba1: do you sell calls against long positions
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:34 am
@Golfcar101: I only invest with common stock, never got into the options side.
Golfcar101
February 21, 2014 – 9:34 am
i sell calls on positions nearing price targets but only for a few weeks at most
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:35 am
@Golfcar101: As your asking about hedging what i find that works for me is selling have cash on hand and at time small short positions to balance things out If I am uncomfortable and see market too hi, extended. These days also using gold asa hedge. looking to see as I have mentioned yesterday if it can breakaway from parallel moves in the market averages and trade on its own as rates rise.
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 9:36 am
i am up about 4%. started year with quite a bit of cash. bought semi-aggressively during jan/feb downturn. DDD down 20% YTD, but my vix puts, qld calls, and DDD calls bought the first week of Feb have more than covered. Favorite pickup – SPLK at $75.
Golfcar101
February 21, 2014 – 9:36 am
thank you
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:38 am
@Jeffhok1970: nice move 4% while S& P is down is a great start 2% a month can be a very lucrative year if it can continue. ddd- minor holding? mid level? full investment there? still down 20% as its back at 80 now and just 15% from its 95 hi?
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 9:49 am
DDD fair size position. No plans to add to it anytime soon. My cost basis is mid 30s. I will continue to buy DDD calls when appropriate…
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 9:52 am
I like FSLR’s move. Hope it continues.
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 9:54 am
CREE might be dead money here? Thoughts? just can’t seem to get any momo. It popped from the sell off but – the market is showing no love for the CREE.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:55 am
@Jeffhok1970: mid 30’s is an options price / level? or actual stock price? Asd for FSLR let it digest great move from 48 to 57. As for DREE looks more sideways digestion action. Seems to need a catalyst.
Johan
February 21, 2014 – 9:56 am
GM, @eryba1: FB, CIEN, FSLR and NVDA… SNDK is doing nice also… as I have told U I’m almost 50% cash but right now I’m questioning myself if it is time to invest more… who knows!!!!
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 9:58 am
@Johan: My cash % was hi as well but added to GDX and FB this week taking it from 45% cash to 20%
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 9:59 am
@eryba1: my DDD mid $30s cost basis is where I got my common (although a few were from exercising options). I am a big fan of DDD been buying since early 2012. Last common purchase was in the $50s
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:00 am
@Jeffhok1970: OK as U had written U were down 20% on it. DDD has been a roller coaster but on a higher trajectory nonetheless.
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 10:02 am
DDD is down for 2014. I am still way it the money on it.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:02 am
@Johan: On a % basis it went to not just GDX and FB but added INVN JDSU as well.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:02 am
@Jeffhok1970: sounds good then!
Johan
February 21, 2014 – 10:06 am
@eryba1: yeah, I already made my 1st tranches on INVN and JDSU… JNPR is another one in my portfolio that is doing very good and I believe It will keep its trend, Best
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:08 am
@Johan: JNPR chart and earnings were / are very good. As always taker some partial profits and buy pullbacks.
rzepeda
February 21, 2014 – 10:17 am
I am looking to park cash for 1 to 5 years (depending on markets and rates). Looking for “safe” dividends with maybe some stock price upside. Most importantly, limit my downside on the stock price. Was thinking of a basket of INTC, CSCO, AAPL for “safe” dividend, long-term growth potential and limited downside (low PE, etc). Wanted to also add T (AT&T) as they are paying above 5%. Any thoughts? Does this sound like a sound thesis? Thanks in advance, I have learned so much here
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:25 am
@rzepeda: IMO – NO not sound at all. TO be invested in stocks in and of itself is a risk. It will not help to invest in safe stocks if they fall 10% or more as we have seen even INTC, VZ can and will in the future at some point perhaps multiple times. If your objective is to have safe dividends those currently are at CD’s where for now it doesnt PAY to lock $$ in. FInd a good hi yielding money market acct http://www.bankrate.com or a credit union However read these first- http://www.fool.com/personal-finance/saving/where-to-park-your-cash.aspx / http://www.thestreet.com/story/11246068/1/are-credit-unions-fdic-insured.html
jahmon
February 21, 2014 – 10:27 am
APOL – It’s hard out here for a pimp…new students down 23%, enrollments down 18%, revenue down 19%… You got it… Stock goes up…
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:31 am
@rzepeda: In addition it depends what this $$ is for. IS it $ allocated to invest? is it $$ for retirement aside from funds already invested somewhere else for growth? Have any further details U want to provide?
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:34 am
@jahmon: which is why shorting is very difficult, need to have some edge and this shows how hard it is to short when there is no crack in stock action, / chart etc
rzepeda
February 21, 2014 – 10:40 am
@eryba1: Thanks for your reply and I know this. It’s just so hard to find “safe” yield. The funds are for retirement but outside of retirement accounts. Basically I want access to this money before I turn 65. This is money I surely don’t want to lose, but I have no issue in riding the market waves. I thought of these companies because they are in the heart of “revolution investing” and should be in the mix for the foreseeable future.
rzepeda
February 21, 2014 – 10:42 am
@eryba1: Thanks for your reply and I know this. It’s just so hard to find “safe” yield. The funds are for retirement but outside of retirement accounts. Basically I want access to this money before I turn 65. This is money I surely don’t want to lose, but I have no issue in riding the market waves. I thought of these companies because they are in the heart of “revolution investing” and should be in the mix for the foreseeable future.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:45 am
@rzepeda: If you dont mind- U said 2 contrasting things safe yield for retirement purposes. Putting money into the stock market is putting money at risk. No if and or buts about it. I know money market accounts even for Jumbo Money market accounts are maybe at or next 1%. Its one thing to ride the markets out and its a completely a diff story to say you want safe yield when invested in stocks. There are good yielders out there but it is at risk. Investment $ is diff, retirement money is another story. You will have no choice but find a hi yielding MM account and wait for the yields on cd’s and the like to reach that 5-6% range for truly better SAFE returns.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:49 am
@rzepeda: Gold is a hedge against inflation and geopolitical events. Look at this top yielders and then look at their stock charts and the volatility- http://www.thestreet.com/dividends/leaders/ http://www.nasdaq.com/dividend-stocks/
rzepeda
February 21, 2014 – 10:55 am
@eryba1: Agreed. I think the first step is to truly define what this $$ is for. Thanks for giving me something to think about. Much appreciated.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:56 am
@rzepeda: U R very welcome!! WHOSE NEXT!!
lfnunnally
February 21, 2014 – 10:57 am
Profit taking in CIEN today?
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 10:58 am
@lfnunnally: yes a small pullback after its near 20% rise
Johan
February 21, 2014 – 11:02 am
@eryba1: anybody else, what are yours thoughts on CCC?
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:02 am
@rzepeda: Yes think it over, the options are limited on a SAFE investment side as Cody has always been harping the FED is making savers into risk takers searching for yield even to combat simple inflation much less grow their assets slowly. Although I dont think money market accounts and their yields are a means for growing your money as yields fluxuate quite a bit from near 6% in 2000 to .25 or less recently..
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:03 am
@Johan: Typical response from the market to a stock that guides softly or misses on Revenue 10% decliner.
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 11:14 am
@eryba1: what are you thinkin hedge as we approach resis or wait for them move to play out im thinkin of some uvxy here
jahmon
February 21, 2014 – 11:15 am
I haven’
jahmon
February 21, 2014 – 11:15 am
I haven’t had a hedge work in many months
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:15 am
@jakef1111: hedge is my cash for now and individual better acting stocks.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:17 am
@jahmon: A hedge that has worked in months? Were U hedged in Mid Jan? a month ago? If so in what way through what investment? All the averages fell 6-8% and stocks fell 10-30% a hedge should have worked then
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 11:21 am
@jahmon: uvxy worked a couple times aapl puts worked but i have tight stops we are in a bull mkt
Jeffhok1970
February 21, 2014 – 11:21 am
Speaking of hedging – I have an after-the-fact hedge that has worked twice now. I buy puts on the Vix when it hits 18-20. Would buy if it hit 22, 24, 26 etc.
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 11:21 am
@eryba1: in that case are tou raising cash or staying put
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:24 am
@jakef1111: I was raising cash as I was trimming last week up to 50% in cash and this week decided to sell my GLD and use that $$ to buy more GDX at 25 handle and bot more Fb when it was down 3% or so, added to JDSU and INVN as well now at 20% cash
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 11:30 am
@eryba1: bought some aapl here at some support should bounce but well see… Its not acting well
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:35 am
@jakef1111: no it is not acting well, may retest 500 again, NEEDS catalyst, last time it was news apple was buying at 500, APPLE needs to show the world its new products, company direction for growth, otherwise it becomes a hardware company that rises into new products being released and thats it.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:36 am
@jakef1111: Right now apple is not exciting, interesting, doing any buys, released any products its all about show me. I am interested to buy back at 500 lets see where it and the markets are if it gets back there at that time.
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 11:39 am
@eryba1: i agree 500 is a place to aggressively buy i think…. I sold my NOW i bought some off the decline after their report and holding my crm steady
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:42 am
@jakef1111: CRM & NOW great stocks and charts great add on to your portfolio. As for apple, Just watching it for now not adding here what I sold at 545 range 1-2 weeks ago
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 11:49 am
@eryba1: im also waiting for nxpi to come in i sold it and it never stopped going up
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 11:53 am
@jakef1111: LESSON HERE!!
NEVER SELL all in an up trending stock, wait for it to act badly or other as U trim on the way up and buy pullbacks so U never get caught ALL in and bad news springs, a stock will show cracks / weak action normally before
nimsri
February 21, 2014 – 12:19 pm
Anyone AMZN at these levels?
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@nimsri: seems to be trying to form a base here at 340-350 lets watch that if it holds or breaks below.
nimsri
February 21, 2014 – 12:27 pm
OK. Thank you @eryba1
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 12:56 pm
looks like all investors have both eyes on USA Canada semi final game LIVE on TV now vs the markets. Similar to what I wrote this morning we had had a great run this week, some stocks are pulling bk a bit. The way it looks is digesting of moves up at this point as volume is light. BTW- USA vs canada 2nd period Canada 1 USA 0
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 1:27 pm
@eryba1: seems like the markets want to break out… S&p wants to close at 1849 and breakout to new highs next week
indiasilver
February 21, 2014 – 1:51 pm
Thoughts on XONE? Anybody adding at these levels?
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 1:55 pm
One technician not watching hockey mentions this just now: A print of 185 in the SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) will break the 5x top at 184.75, presumably triggering an upside breakout with the potential to propel the SPY to 191-92.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 1:56 pm
@jakef1111: I am using SSYS as my 3d Play. Bought for a trade and sold at 125. looking for a pullback.
chrismossey
February 21, 2014 – 2:41 pm
@eryba1: apple is starting to make me sick again. This stock cannot hold gains. 5% pullback now vs its peers 2-3% and then up.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 2:45 pm
@chrismossey: sick? OWN too much? Thought U sold near 500? U bot again?
Look we have been saying here it needs a catalyst, when that comes we never know saw 500 popped to 550 = 10% was a TRIM. The new products will be key, when they come we dont know until then its adrift. Investors got upset yesterday with apple NON moves and BIG cash hoard yet FB buys 450 users and growing service. Depends on market it may retest 500 where apple buyback is there to support it for now.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 2:46 pm
@chrismossey: It may need to make that BIG W bottom at 500 before time for new product hardware comes. An announcement out of the blue may also comes thats why if U like a stock have some on, we know we cant always time these things.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 2:47 pm
@chrismossey: Or maybe we need U to purge your shares as U did last time at 503 was it or 495 and U asked me if I bot the shares U sold at those lows?
Was this not what happened last time? Then apple came out saying it bought its own shares at 500 as U were selling.
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@chrismossey: let me tell u an aapl story of mine i have had common at 55/75 etc i bought some at 191 and sold all but 1 share…. That share shows me that you have to have a plan and INVEST trading is playing Russian roulette it only takes one bullet have a plan and invest for the next five years… I bought fb at 18 sold it all to early and missed parts of the run up… Have a plan to deploy
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 3:07 pm
your money dont over trade and have a few yrs perspective.. When its time to get out of the market for a long term down term then u sell your holdings… Just my opinion and my pains
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:07 pm
@jakef1111: why did U sell all and never got back? something changed your opinion of the company?
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 3:09 pm
@eryba1: no just the stupidity to trade and move money to something else which gets hammered not having stops and missing the move up in the stock i shoulda just held
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:10 pm
@jakef1111: OK, hope TWC site is changing some of those bad habits or actions.
chrismossey
February 21, 2014 – 3:13 pm
@eryba1: for the record I sold at 530. Bought all back under 500. As someone else suggested, I have a plan. I just can’t stand the irrational weekly volatility in the issue. It is what it is. I was just making a point.
jahmon
February 21, 2014 – 3:14 pm
FYI Apple is making me sick as well
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:16 pm
@chrismossey: U are ahead on your purchase, why is it making U sick? It has no new products release date, We all know NEW products we are TOLD are coming 2nd half of year story / stock. So why not treat it as such. Keep some and on any news or product close to launch date add more.
chrismossey
February 21, 2014 – 3:17 pm
@jahmon: it does not trade at all like other stout companies. It is whipsawed unlike others.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:17 pm
I understand it does NOTHIng as it has NO Catalyst yet. Lets keep it smaller a position unless we see lets say 500 then add if all is Ok in market then sell a rip higher to take some off. This way instead of being sick from it U R happy to see it trade for now in 10% range and but the bottom of the range and sell the top.
Golfcar101
February 21, 2014 – 3:18 pm
apples new products are also a little scary the iphone better have more than a few who care`s add on`s imo don`t feel iwatch will bw a big deal cook needs to go
chrismossey
February 21, 2014 – 3:18 pm
It is simply that it cannot hold anything like others. I think it is because I feel as though it is manipulated.
erya1
February 21, 2014 – 3:19 pm
@chrismossey: maybe, So decide keep it small so U dont mind the volatility / manipulation as U call it or dont invest in it AT ALL and instead concentrate on your other better performing positions.
chrismossey
February 21, 2014 – 3:21 pm
@eryba1: That could be where it goes.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:27 pm
@chrismossey: never let a position frustrate U at least for more than a it if at all, U can always buy it back it things improve, meanwhile if U have better acting stocks let those get our attention, time and investment capital.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:28 pm
thats for more than a bit it at all.
jakef1111
February 21, 2014 – 3:46 pm
@eryba1: twc has helped a lot but i still find myself without the sndk i purchased at 35 the fb at 18 sometimes you have to list the names you want buy them and have your wife change the damn password because the desire to trade and feel like your gonna get caught in the next downturn overcomes the simple idea of buy and hold and sell when something changes
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:49 pm
@jakef1111: Good to know TWC is helping. Over and over trying to stress as cody does with TRANCHE buying and selling. NEVER all on all off, a person can drive himself insane that way.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:51 pm
How can the desire to trade it all on and off still be there time after time when many times one acts too hasty and early and all or none, if U want to change your fortunes change the behavior that causes results that are not rewarding.
rzepeda
February 21, 2014 – 3:53 pm
@eryba1: if U want to change your fortunes change the behavior that causes results that are not rewarding. — well said, I am trying to hammer this into my own head
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:53 pm
Which is another reason we sell tranches as stocks RIP higher at certain levels U take some off because when it comes back down and stocks ALWAYS come down U have cash to put back to work.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@rzepeda: It takes time, I can say it here over and over, Cody can e-mail again and again sell tranches on way up and buy back on way down. Sometimes we need to make our OWN mistakes but at some point STOP them and change them after having gone thru the painful lessons from them.
eryba1
February 21, 2014 – 4:14 pm
It was a short week but lots of action. market os doing a nice job of working off the overbought condition and consolidating. lets watch our individual holdings and see how they perform to clue us in as what to do. The S&P was basically UNCH for the week. Rest up, enjoy the winter olympics closing ceremonies sunday night for those watching the games. C U monday morning.
eryba1
February 22, 2014 – 2:17 am
Just for u Chris after your aggita post today about apple.
http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-ecommerce-and-mobile-payments-plans-2014-2. This may comfort u a bit. However at the end price action will be the great determinate. This is why I own some and for now trade it.
eryba1
February 22, 2014 – 4:30 pm
Chris u there? Or here is it ?
eryba1
February 22, 2014 – 4:32 pm
just got a great tweet by Stephanie about an article Cramer sent her he wrote about apple I think u’ll enjoy it as will any other apple investor here at least for now. Who knows its stock action starting Monday.
http://cramersshirt.weebly.com/blog.html
eryba1
February 22, 2014 – 8:09 pm
http://gizmodo.com/wheelchair-bound-woman-walks-again-with-a-3d-printed-ex-1528719886
jakef1111
February 23, 2014 – 12:45 am
@eryba1: saw that on ddd and the exoskel.. Very cool… I think we should temper our expectations for aapl till it busts out till then accumulate common cuz it will be 1000 one day and well look back on 525 and regret it
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 7:23 am
@jakef1111: Just as U say I think.
We can always WAIT until the uptrend emerges then buy knowing there is no more downside pressure and a new phase higher has begun.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 8:03 am
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inplay-briefing-com-055139997.html#tqnt TQNT and RFMD MERGE- TQNT up 17% premarket
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 8:18 am
Amazon stand alone set top box for streaming for non amazon prime members. http://news.investors.com/022114-690819-amazon-amzn-tv-box-rumored-for-march-launch.htm?ven=yahoocp&src=aurlled&ven=yahoo
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 8:20 am
Tqnt to merge with rfmd -up 30% in premarket
Cody
February 24, 2014 – 8:21 am
@chrismossey: I’m not an arbitrager, and I’ll likely be selling all of my TQNT over the next couple days.
Cody
February 24, 2014 – 8:22 am
Nice pop and gain since we’ve owned the TQNT. We’ll take it.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 8:24 am
@chrismossey: GM- “THE YEAR OF AAPL AND TQNT ” coming to fruition 1/2 way so far. from $8 to start the year and now nearly $12. In addition I think the deal between NFLX and CMCSA over the weekend I think only amplifies codys take on stocks like JNPR CIEN JDSU and the NEED for SPEED and a fatter pipe to carry more and more data and at much faster speeds- http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/23/netflix-comcast-deal-streaming/5757631/
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 8:27 am
@eryba1: this could add to the short case on nflx if one were considering that. I can’t imagine they have considered having to pay companies to speed their content. Add this to the huge amounts they are now paying for content and the 7.99 a month does not go very far.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 8:30 am
@chrismossey: for now it keeps customers who if they get error message , buffering non stop would Just STOP the NFLX service as it wont work and with data showing NFLX using up 32% of the pipe at night for its data thats HUGE. Shows people watching habits are drastically changing and the online no commercial video / shows and the like from Amazon, NFLX, HULU etc are making serious inroads into the old over the air broadcast TV.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 8:32 am
@eryba1: not seeing an affect on cien and jnpr yet. Might add a 1/5 extra to each.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 8:33 am
cody whats your take on the NFLX and CMCSA deal to push their data faster and w/ less issues?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 8:54 am
@chrismossey: we dont know the costs, It would almost be illegal to RANSOn NFLX for BETTER service perhaps more like an upgrade to higher speeds as we pay for our homes or business from fios 15/5 speed to 25/10 or Quantum 50+ meg download. The details of the agreement have not been disclosed.
doug.sekula
February 24, 2014 – 8:58 am
@Cody: GM all, how are you going to tranche out of TQNT? Half at the open? Then 25% and 25%? How far can this thing go?
Cody
February 24, 2014 – 9:04 am
@doug.sekula: Will go slowly. Probably do it mostly tmrw, but maybe 1/3 today.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:05 am
@doug.sekula: good question- As cody says we have been in TQNT this year from about 8 dollars so a move to 11.5-12 = a near 40-50% Move YTD. In that regard its a BIG win. RFMD is buying TQNT so yes it seems the yearly gains are now in hand 2 months into the year. Time to find the next investment and use of our capital. RF Micro Devices (RFMD) shares soared more than 20% on word of its acquisition of rival chipmaker TriQuint (TQNT) for $1.6 billion. TriQuint shares were up nearly 30% in early action.
Cody
February 24, 2014 – 9:06 am
@eryba1: I see your logic about the NFLX CMCSA deal being important for infrastructure supplies like JNPR and CIEN, but it’s not going to be immediate or drive analyst moves or anything, I don’t think.
Cody
February 24, 2014 – 9:08 am
@doug.sekula: It’ll be impossible to time a perfect daytrading top for our exit on TQNT and I’m not even going to try. I will just scale out of my TQNT patiently and hope that overall I hit mostly near whatever the new near-term highs will be.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:09 am
@Cody: sure not immediate, but to pay more for faster service, may make googles fiber laying of its own more valuable as well. If companies are willing to pay for faster service to keep customers happy what happens if more customers are now willing to pay more so their data is not buffering all the time? This would mean faster and faster services needed by CMCSA thus requiring more services equipment from the likes of JDSU CIEN JNPR etc
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 9:42 am
cien and jnpr are both down a bit this morning. Worth watching and perhaps bidding under the market.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:42 am
looking to add back cien I sold at 26.25 now looking to go below 25 looking for 24.5 range if we get it.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 9:44 am
@eryba1: bidding for cien at 24.75
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:45 am
@chrismossey: we R thinking alike this AM. U in 85 heat me it 35 DEEP FREEZE!!!
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 9:46 am
85 degree temps till Friday. Having the house here for the month has been the best thing ever. Family really enjoyed it, got a little work done, scouted restaurants, and relaxed.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 9:47 am
@eryba1: one concern is it might need to fill the gap down to 23.13 – we will see. I bid for a half position in the event this is the case.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:47 am
@chrismossey: I know what U mean!!! we had 60 degrees here and it felt like a POLAR VORTEX GIFT!!
But back today to 20’s and 30’s this week
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:50 am
@chrismossey: I am being patient on CIEN, It had a great move. I trimmed higher and will bide my time, instead made FB my biggest position once more last week when it was down on the acquisition news early in the day now challenging 70.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:51 am
@chrismossey: hard to see cien get back to 23.13 its 50 day avg unless big issues in market as that would be where it was before the 20% rise after erickson deal
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:52 am
@chrismossey: u read the apple post by cramers shirt link?
Olivepetunia
February 24, 2014 – 9:54 am
@eryba1: @Cody: Does it make any sense to close part/all of long TQNT equity by selling calls? TQNT Jan 2015 $10 calls are trading bid $1.85 ask $2.00 with common at $10.90.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:55 am
@Olivepetunia: it makes sense to sell if in the end of your options move you are selling your tqnt U bit at 8 handle or below.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 9:58 am
goog new all time hi, FB, S&P, Lets see og gold hits, breaks above 1338 as many think if it does on this grind higher we could see a big move higher? Lets watch and see
Janmara1
February 24, 2014 – 9:59 am
Kudos to cody thx for tqnt
Olivepetunia
February 24, 2014 – 9:59 am
My avg cost $8.33 so it seems to make sense; will sell some calls and hold balance for a bit. I assume stock will be called when deal closes regardless of option expiration. When does the deal close?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:00 am
@Olivepetunia: not sure on closing date but it is a gift and we are taking it.
doug.sekula
February 24, 2014 – 10:00 am
Anyone sell any TQNT? Still holding mine.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:02 am
@doug.sekula: i am seling
Johan
February 24, 2014 – 10:02 am
@doug.sekula: I just trimmed some TQNT for 10.99 and if for the rest of the day it goes to 12 perphaps I will sell all
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:02 am
selling,
doug.sekula
February 24, 2014 – 10:10 am
Selling all? Won’t hold a small core for a long?
Johan
February 24, 2014 – 10:13 am
@doug.sekula: I sold 1/3 but if it reaches 12 again as it did in pre-market then I think I will sell all… big gain..
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:16 am
@doug.sekula: Dont think there is much more upside we have near 40% gains or more for those who bought at 8. Why be greedy.Lets move on.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:18 am
@doug.sekula: RFMD essentially has bought TQNT- RF Micro Devices (RFMD) shares soared more than 20% on word of its acquisition of rival chipmaker TriQuint (TQNT) for $1.6 billion. TriQuint shares were up nearly 30% in early action.
SamsaricSufferer
February 24, 2014 – 10:20 am
I started scaling out of TQNT this morning on the pop.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:20 am
@eryba1: aside from Ciena are you adding to anything else. I am thinking of adding more of anything else. I am thinking GDXJ or more GDX
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:22 am
@chrismossey: FB and GDX are my biggest holdings. I am not adding I have 20% cash and am comfortable with it for now. I want to add CIEN closer to 24.5. , I would add to your GDX.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:23 am
agreed, gdxj up big today – 3% – I saw a number of insider purchases in gold miners over the weekend.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:23 am
@chrismossey: I am watching apple and seeing if we get to see 500 again thus keeping dry powder for that. In addiiton I want to get back into SSYS under 120 now at 125
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:24 am
@eryba1: yes. I am in with you on both those ideas.
jakef1111
February 24, 2014 – 10:25 am
@Cody: you dont think the purchase by rfmd will make the combined co a good long term investment?
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:25 am
@eryba1: Due to a rollover of some money I have 80% in cash now. I have plenty of dry powder.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:25 am
@chrismossey: SO I will be patient vs trying to get a little more juice in the portfolio. The juice today is being NICELY provided by TQNT, FB and GDX
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:25 am
@eryba1: Out of TQNT altogether now.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:25 am
@chrismossey: yes plenty of dry powder but buying too much after big runs higher is not a wise idea IMHO
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:26 am
@chrismossey: GOOG, FB, GDX, TQNT, CIEN, ZNGA ALL GREAT moves higher it would not be prudent to buy too much here of each after such big runs,.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:27 am
agreed – I am not looking to deploy much at all.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:27 am
just pullback moves.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:28 am
@chrismossey: at this point yes, I think sits wise. If U R in cien FB goog znga sndk gold in general your accts should be at new or hi’s or getting there
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:29 am
for that reason let things come to us vs chase higher we are getting on the greed index at + 59. We were buying at 12-15 on this indicator.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:29 am
http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:29 am
yes
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:31 am
@chrismossey: As an example for a few accts I manage I had TQNT in there they are up 35% on it and am selling it today and will HOLD the cash to buy into CIEN under 25. I would NOT add to their current holdings in FB GOOG AMZN AAPL etc
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:33 am
@eryba1: only bidding on cien and gdx
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:35 am
]@chrismossey: not a bad idea.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:37 am
HAs amazon consolidated enough? wants to break above sideways action its been in for a few weeks? lets see
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:40 am
@chrismossey: Looking over my acct I may add a tranche of 1/2 of one in INVN its still just a small position SO far
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:41 am
@eryba1: funny you say – that – down 6.3% since I bought it and am going to bid under the market on it.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:43 am
@chrismossey: I am down 3% on it so lowering my cost basis.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:46 am
@chrismossey: making it s a full tranche buy
msamuels2000
February 24, 2014 – 10:53 am
@Olivepetunia: I’m in a bit over my head here but are you thinking about selling covered calls to tranch out of TQNT or am I misunderstanding
JSmith
February 24, 2014 – 10:56 am
@eryba1: are you buying GDx and gdxj or just waiting for it to drop to buy more?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:57 am
@JSmith: I bought all the GDX I wanted last week, debated bet gdxj and more gdx as I sold my gld and opted for just more of gdx a week ago.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 10:57 am
@eryba1: full tranche of invn?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:58 am
@chrismossey: yes
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 10:58 am
lowering my costs basis
Olivepetunia
February 24, 2014 – 11:01 am
@msamuels2000: That is what I was thinking, but now having second thoughts. Not sure if common would get called when deal closes – – or would I have stock in consolidated company with a short position in a weird adjusted option? I have an open order to sell a couple and may let it ride just to see what happens. Planning to follow Cody and sell most over next couple of days.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 11:02 am
@eryba1: what % of your portfolio is a tranche? I recall last week you were 45% in cash and made two purchases and now down to 20%. Is a full tranche 12.5% – this seems high for you so I thought I would ask.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:04 am
@chrismossey: I added that I did buy FB and GDX and INVN and JDSU as well
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:04 am
full tranche is about 3% or so of my portfolio value
JSmith
February 24, 2014 – 11:04 am
@chrismossey: @eryba1: what is your take on GDx over the course of next 2 years. Do you see now as a good entry for move higher over next 2 years, or is this a temp trade for you?
drefleury
February 24, 2014 – 11:05 am
Is FSLR reporting tonight? Consensus of 1.00 seems light to me… thoughts?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:05 am
@JSmith: not a temp trade. We are looking for this to be a new leg higher after its near 30% decline last year and decline from 1900 to 1200.
drefleury
February 24, 2014 – 11:06 am
When is XONE going to get it’s legs?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:07 am
@drefleury: scty is tonight as well.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:07 am
@drefleury: as soon as DDD stops cutting them.
msamuels2000
February 24, 2014 – 11:07 am
@Olivepetunia: thanks – I had some BIDU called away last year doing that as it just rose above the strike price on expiration day. I needed to reduce my position because I was up big and overweight in my portfolio but it went straight up from there so it still stings a little. I’ll probably sell out of TQNT.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 11:08 am
@eryba1: Got it. I am the same – 3-5% is a full tranche. If I double up at most 10%
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:10 am
@chrismossey: I keep most stocks at MAX 10% as GDX is now. At times I let others get to be a bigger % for shorter periods of time like FB is, then trim some down as they get too large on a % basis and get them back inline.
Golfcar101
February 24, 2014 – 11:11 am
showing fslr er tomorrow
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:12 am
@Golfcar101: OK codys calendar says Mon the 24th. Other site says tues after the close. So U R right
Olivepetunia
February 24, 2014 – 11:22 am
@msamuels2000: Always a risk with covered writing. Part of my style of tranche buying/selling is to write calls on a (usually small) portion of a position. Makes me feel better while waiting (sometimes feels endlessly), but can sting when the stock pops. I was wondering as noted if the option will be converted and follow the common to a position in the combined entity. Getting $2.00+ on a 2015 call that is closed with the merger seems too good …….. Not written yet. Sold some common at $11.31.
Benb
February 24, 2014 – 11:28 am
Jeez this is an awesome day. I love making money on a Monday.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:29 am
@Benb: ? Why just monday, we try to position ourselves to make money weekly if possible, But I know what U mean.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 11:37 am
jdsu and INVN seem to be forming breakout / new leg higher charts from these levels that is why I have added to both today.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:16 pm
the higher FB goes the lower apple goes, FB shows us whats its doing as a company for GROWTH and apple is a wait WE’LL show U. I can almost FEEL money leaving AAPL and going into Fb even at these chase levels today. Apple cant hide behind its cash for much longer / buyback or not. Today markets up 1% Apple is down .3% Will we see people sell it and wait for another tranche buyback by apple at 500? I say maybe but why wait others are investing with FB and will MAYBE relook at apple at 500 perhaps / or when it releases new products, whichever comes first.
rzepeda
February 24, 2014 – 12:19 pm
@eryba1: I will add to AAPL under $500 if it gets there. Actually hoping it does.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@rzepeda: for now its clearly loosing mind share by investors. I will also relook at it at 500 or under depends on the market conditions ofcourse. However the action in FB confirms what FB is doing right and what apple isnt doing at all. Apple may just need to be a2nd half 2014 stock
Benb
February 24, 2014 – 12:22 pm
@eryba1: I think thats a stupid assumption to say that AAPL is going down because of the FB deal. You think its going to go up in a straight 50 point line after it already did a 60 point move off the 1/31 low? Apples fine and its chart doesn’t look bad for people that aren’t impatient…
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:24 pm
@Benb: its not going down because of the FB deal. Its going down because apple refuses to make a deal with its cash hoard to grow. Apple bounce from 500 to 550 on news it bought back billions in stock and it was oversold at the time. Apple’s PE is not at 8-9 ex cash for now reason.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:27 pm
@Benb: The future is mobile, social, cloud and even though we know apple has a reach into many of these it is neither growing them enough on a move the needle company as a whole approach. I am an apple user and investor, I am very patient investor that knows enough to know this patient says its going to do things as we all wait for it to do it. Meanwhile we are seeing FB and Google and others take action.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:29 pm
Apple looks right now as a 2nd half 2014 story / stock when new products emerge. meanwhile its stock price languishes other more growth oriented stocks are greatly outperforming once again in 2014. Apple’s stock price declined 7% in 2013 when the S&P was up 25+ %
jakef1111
February 24, 2014 – 12:36 pm
@eryba1: aapl is tryn to hold on around 525 which would be bullish but in an up market looking as weak as it is a 2% drop in the market should take it close to 500
jakef1111
February 24, 2014 – 12:39 pm
@eryba1: thinking of buying some uvxy but i want to wait for the end of the day
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:46 pm
@jakef1111: This weekend I posted a link to a great article all positives on apples side. We can write what we want, like it all we want, use the products all we want. However as an investment it needs to treat our capital the way we want. I am not saying dont have a longer term outlook on it. Thats fine. What I am saying is apple is under performing if you are a buy and hold investor. If you can actively manage your account why not sell the rips and buy the dips. Apple is in that category, its upside is limited by what it does. Fb, GOOG, CIEN and others are not limiting themselves and are rewarding shareholders with growth in their companies and in the accounts of shareholders.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:46 pm
@jakef1111: uvxy??
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:47 pm
Here is that link : http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-ecommerce-and-mobile-payments-plans-2014-2
JSmith
February 24, 2014 – 12:49 pm
@eryba1: why cine going back down?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:51 pm
@JSmith: after a 20% rise in a week or so a pullback was to be expected it is pulling back a bit.
JSmith
February 24, 2014 – 12:54 pm
@eryba1: what is your trade on JNPR..what r u expecting, and your recommend buy price if u think it is breaking out.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 12:56 pm
@JSmith: I missed out on the great JNPR trade from 18 to 28. I never owned it. I was in cien the whole time instead. Chart looks fine consolidating at 27-28.
JSmith
February 24, 2014 – 12:59 pm
@eryba1: would you recommend buying more Jnpr here or waiting for it do go down some more. What r u using to come to conclusion it is about to breakout? Thanks for your time/ideas
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 1:02 pm
@JSmith: jnpr breakout from here? I Dont see that at this point. Just more sideways consolidating the big move from 18-28. Buying more? I would rather own a cien for now.
jakef1111
February 24, 2014 – 1:17 pm
@eryba1: uvxy is the 3x vix
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 1:19 pm
@jakef1111: 3 x anything is dangerous.
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 1:22 pm
@eryba1: could lnkd have the start of a bit of a bull flag? Watching closely. Looking to play a 10% move to 220.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 1:23 pm
@chrismossey: support for now found. next rsistance overhead is 50 day moving avg at 212-213
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 1:24 pm
gotta watch it, the 50 day is below the 200 day now.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 1:34 pm
@chrismossey: death cross??
chrismossey
February 24, 2014 – 1:51 pm
@eryba1: Yes, I know – watching it very closely.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 1:56 pm
@chrismossey: its acting better as of late. If market experiences no serious decline it could = lnkd could see 50 day avg.
Nik
February 24, 2014 – 2:01 pm
What is your take on LNN? Buy dips candidate?
doug.sekula
February 24, 2014 – 2:05 pm
Time for CIEN?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 2:06 pm
@doug.sekula: I am being patient today showing support at 25 in a STRONG market. If we see a market pullback tom it may see its 50 day avg 24.5 range. That is my thesis. I will wait for then.
doug.sekula
February 24, 2014 – 2:11 pm
@eryba1: Thanks. Will do the same.
cupcake8
February 24, 2014 – 2:22 pm
why is tqnt so strong here way over over offer price?
jakef1111
February 24, 2014 – 2:31 pm
@eryba1: bought some aapl here i see a bounce from here if aapls buy back put n a floor it shouldnt see 500
jakef1111
February 24, 2014 – 2:32 pm
At least thats my logic
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 2:33 pm
@jakef1111: I understand- Look I am not against apple- I picked apple and TQNT as my stocks of the year when the year began as I picked ZNGA and FB for 2013. So far TQNT is a home run and apple seems to be a 2nd half 2014 story. Lets see
doug.sekula
February 24, 2014 – 2:46 pm
@eryba1: are you going to hold a core of TQNT?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 2:48 pm
@doug.sekula: NO, I am moving on for now. I can always buy back if need be but a 25% move today and 15-25% before is fine by me. For now I would rather look at what has pulled back such as a CIEN, INVN, JDSU, even an apple at some point.
dcranchtrading
February 24, 2014 – 3:17 pm
@eryba1 , should pull the trigger to get the DDD ?
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 3:20 pm
DDD stands for Dont Do it Dcranchtrading- IMo I am waiitng for a pullback in SSYS under 125. Cody has said of the 3d stocks he likes the least because of management it would be DDD. I am not a buyer of DDD
msamuels2000
February 24, 2014 – 3:30 pm
@doug.sekula: FWIW I sold 2/3 position and will let the house money ride to see if a bidding war emerges for TQNT
slonda
February 24, 2014 – 4:20 pm
@eryba1: what about yahoo? their stake in Alibaba could be really worth, looks to me like market doesn’t pay much attention to it, as there is no IPO date announced yet.
eryba1
February 24, 2014 – 4:55 pm
@slonda: yahoo had a great run then a correction like all others did and now staging a comeback. As for Alibaba yes its important but I am focused on our core holdings right now.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 7:11 am
Bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox goes offline amid turmoil- http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/02/25/mt-gox-offline/5801093/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UsatodaycomMoney-TopStories+%28USATODAY+-+Money+Top+Stories%29
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 8:08 am
LinkedIn Expands in China With Local Website- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/linkedin-expands-china-local-website-000000239.html
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 8:10 am
TriQuint downgraded at DA Davidson FEB 25, 2014 | 7:55 AM EST TQNT was downgraded from Buy to Neutral, DA Davidson said. Valuation call, based on a $12 price target.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 8:22 am
Its a quiet morning so far aside from Tesla which is lighting things up after a target from $320 Morgan Stanley, which is very optimistic about the company’s emergence as a battery maker.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:11 am
Stocks are up 10 of 12 days or so, fear greed index went from 12 to 60 in 2 weeks, Mclellan indicator stating we are in an uptrend, Baltic dry index seems to have bottomed and is moving higher at + 23 today to 1197 and up 10% from its bottom 1-2 weeks ago. S&P oscillator at +9 all things pointing to an extended market in one way or another. lets Make sure we tighten things up, watch individual stocks and have dry powder by trimming some if you have not done so already. Lets protect our portfolios as we see new hi’s in a FB, GOOG, 28% gains in TQNT in one day.
Jeffhok1970
February 25, 2014 – 9:42 am
anyone buying BTC today?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:44 am
TSLA is RAMPING 12% today new hi’s I wonder oif the talks bet AAPl and TSLA will result in the use of apples OS into TSLA’s car. They 2 companies met and we have as usual no idea what is going on just more speculation.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:46 am
@Jeffhok1970: I am not touching BTC- more drama this morning if U read the link I posted this morning.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 9:48 am
@eryba1: I think the tesla / apple os hook up is a given.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:49 am
@chrismossey: really? a given? Why? OS in tesla seems to be working just fine, why overall the OS for all current and future cars? BTW taking the LNKD 5% rise and selling my position back at my cost basis for shares left.
Jeffhok1970
February 25, 2014 – 9:50 am
I would like to see Musk on the Apple board
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:50 am
@Jeffhok1970: a visionary on the board. Sounds like a missing puzzle piece for the late Steve Jobs.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 9:50 am
@eryba1: Client bases are the same. When client synergies are this strong there is more emphasis on it.
msamuels2000
February 25, 2014 – 9:51 am
@eryba1: no confidence in LNKD?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:51 am
@chrismossey: possible, thats is a fact, but would that not look like a loss for TSLA to use APPLE OS while theirs is winning market share and heart?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:52 am
@msamuels2000: didnt like the qtr, prefer others for now after this bounce from 185 to 211. If we retest pullback I may get back in and this time at a much better cost basis
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 9:52 am
Then there needs to be a common interface and api’s for the apple/ tesla. we will see. I am adding to lnkd.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:54 am
@chrismossey: interface- yes plug in your android or apple and the screen on the vehicles shows your phones apps etc in the same format and layout a win win perhaps. Unless apple pays to be in tesla’s
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:55 am
@chrismossey: adding to LNKD after this 15% bounce? wise to raise cost basis vs your smart move to add under 190??
msamuels2000
February 25, 2014 – 9:56 am
@eryba1: I get it – I’m currently out of the social media basket looking for entry points back in. ZNGA way to bubbly for me now
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:57 am
@msamuels2000: entry points, yes, very important. its not what U sell it for its whats U buy it for, cost basis at the heart of investing, buy low sell hi
msamuels2000
February 25, 2014 – 9:57 am
Where would you be a buyer of ZNGA?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 9:58 am
@msamuels2000: 4.2-4.4 range
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 10:02 am
tsla and apple a good move but how much could this really put on bottom line investors and traders looking for real growth and innovation imo tsla deal overdone
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:02 am
watching cien this morning as its below 24.82, looking for support here and or next support range at 23.67.
lfnunnally
February 25, 2014 – 10:04 am
@erbya1: are you pulling the trigger for any CIEN today?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:05 am
@Golfcar101: correct. We wont know until this “IDEA” is ever made into a deal. For now its new hardware that will drive apple and they wont be here until the 2nd half of 2014. We could see that transactions business via itunes and the fingerprint id software they have for transactions. Will have to wait it out. Meanwhile selling Iphones in china is underway lets see how much that helps in Q1.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:05 am
@lfnunnally: watching cien this morning as its below 24.82, looking for support here and or next support range at 23.67.
nimsri
February 25, 2014 – 10:10 am
@eryba1 any issues with INVN? It seems to be loosing today.
doug.sekula
February 25, 2014 – 10:10 am
@eryba1: Nice call on CIEN yesterday
doug.sekula
February 25, 2014 – 10:11 am
Glad I waited.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 10:12 am
@eryba1: on lknd I see much more growth opportunity based on how we use their service. We are starting to pay them more money and I believe this is happening across corporate america and now will start in china.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:13 am
@chrismossey: could be. U have first hand use of their service. I needed abetter cost basis and will start new if we see it fall under 200 as a 15% bounce was a good call by u.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:15 am
@doug.sekula: Lets see it stabilize at a certain point then I will add perhaps even here at 24.8
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:15 am
@nimsri: weak with the market for now.
nimsri
February 25, 2014 – 10:17 am
OK. Thank you!
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:22 am
cien- Ok ladding 1 or 1/2 a tranche in here
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:22 am
adding
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:25 am
apple nice base being formed at 345-360 seems market likes it and wants to take it higher. Lets see if it breaks ceiling 360, I am in no rush here as i have a nice position in it already but would like to add at some point.
jahmon
February 25, 2014 – 10:36 am
Amazon, right?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:38 am
@jahmon: SOrry yes amazon
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 10:42 am
I am buying 1/2 a tranche in amazon here
SamsaricSufferer
February 25, 2014 – 10:59 am
anyone adding CCC here?
SamsaricSufferer
February 25, 2014 – 10:59 am
Picked up some AMZN.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:13 am
@eryba1: Back to the office now and yes, Amazon stabilized here nicely.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:14 am
following you now with a .5 buy
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:14 am
@chrismossey: seems that way ceiling at 360.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:14 am
Chart shows a path to 390 without much resistance from here.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:16 am
@chrismossey: ssys also looks interesting based at 127 for a bit but earnings next week, we know how that can go so I am being patient. rather buy CIEN, INVN, JDSU to be safer. Even though hearing good things about SSYS but no idea how market will react. It has already moved from 110 to 128.5
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:17 am
@eryba1: I was going to suggest a buy yesterday at 125 but I just don’t trust it.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:18 am
@eryba1: I have a full 5% positions invn. I could add to JDSU. Do you like it?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:18 am
@chrismossey: I bot it for a trade @ 117 and sold at 125. Wanted back in under 120 didnt get the chance. instead saw FB decline on acquisition and bot there.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:19 am
@chrismossey: I have jdsu and invn 7% positions and about for now as hi as I will take them both. I do like them both
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:19 am
goog at all time hi’s
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:20 am
@eryba1: sounds good. I am going to bump jdsu I am at my cost basis right here. so no dilution of gains by adding.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:23 am
@chrismossey: jdsu 13.7 ceiling twice already needs a break higher to 16.25 range
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:29 am
@chrismossey: just as if U add to jdsu U arent adding to your cost basis why would U increase your cost basis by adding lnkd here? just wondering If U dont mind.
Johan
February 25, 2014 – 11:29 am
anybody playing FSLR for a trade before earning report today?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:29 am
@Johan: it ran from 48 to 58 near 20% rise so far
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:31 am
@eryba1: Great question – the answer is in my conviction for growth. I believe the market is not understanding the adoption of lnkd in corporations. It is the corporate social network. I am on it more than FB. China is huge. What if the china business becomes as large as the US business, then it is greatly undervalued. Also, I don’t own a full position and really see it going to 220 in the short term.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:35 am
@chrismossey: OK a full well thought out plan. So for the 5% upside further and increase your costs basis worth the add on here vs waiting for a pullback? U had a15% run from its bottom near 185 or lower? I understand the upside potential very much, just going through an investing mentality exercise.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:43 am
@eryba1: sure, I viewed the pull back to get my cost basis under two hundred and with the purchase it is right around 201 – so I am thinking a 10% run that could be traded or if I am comfortable I could see it going up beyond 220. – Rather similar to your view on SSYS. I don’t see it going back to 190 from here in the short run with the china news. This is pretty big.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:46 am
@eryba1: Hope that helps. Obviously not perfect but i like it here. We will see. I should note, I do not own a full position. At about .75 of full.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:47 am
@chrismossey: yes I traded ssys and now its has not pulled back and I will not reenter for safety reasons to buy it here after I sold at 125. I think the china LNKD news is big but not material yet, lets see what LNKD china does today the news is being cheered as LNKD meets its overhead resistance 50 day moving avg. We didnt think that apple after its china mobile deal, also after its big buyback on the open market at 500 when it ran to 550 would see it 1/2 way back but it did both times and then some.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:48 am
@chrismossey: Hope U dont feel I am arguing with U just trying to enlighten both sides and the TWC site of investments based on timing, ideas and conviction.
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 11:49 am
@eryba1: is there a crazyometer? I bought some itmn at 31.5….. Reminded me of icpt which went up 100% plus two days in a row
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:49 am
@eryba1: It certainly could and I have room to add. I think the discussion is great. One thing it proves for me is that I have a plan for the trade and I really like that discussion. Hearing both sides is healthy. No worries on my end. We can learn a lot from everyone.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:50 am
@jakef1111: the world of biotech good phase 3 up near 200% bad phase 3 down 90+ %
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:51 am
@chrismossey: great points. Hoped U would feel that way!
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:52 am
@jakef1111: add 19% crazy move in LNKD as well off JPM price bump, things R frothy, let us be careful.
JSmith
February 25, 2014 – 11:52 am
@eryba1: @chrismossey: anyone see anything coming out of Apple’s annual shareholder meeting on the 28th? i.e will it make the stock go down (Tim speaks) or creat the opposite?
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 11:52 am
@eryba1: biotech is on something crazy passed fire… If that corrects hopefully that money finds its way to our holdings
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:53 am
@JSmith: actions not words is what the stock and investors need. Products not speeches.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:53 am
@eryba1: One other point, I look at FB, LNKD and Yelp line a social basket. Personal, Corporate and informational platforms are covered by three. Really like all three as I use them all. I have been adding Yelp over the last both stock and calls and now am at a full position.
chrismossey
February 25, 2014 – 11:54 am
correction to the above – like a social basket
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:54 am
@chrismossey: yelp is a winner, no doubt about it.
JSmith
February 25, 2014 – 11:56 am
@eryba1: you own yelp?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:57 am
@JSmith: no I do not.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:57 am
@JSmith: its on my shopping list but never pulled back before earnings. Didnt chase it
JSmith
February 25, 2014 – 11:57 am
@eryba1: you plan to enter at some point?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 11:58 am
@JSmith: if we get a pullback perhaps, depending on % of a decline.
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 12:11 pm
@eryba1: i think the vix or uvxy is very interesting as things get frothy like your saying
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@jakef1111: hard tool to invest in personally, I would rather focus on our individual stocks. Markets are unch yet a few individual stocks are doing well from GOOG, LNKD, amzn to name afew
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 12:16 pm
@eryba1: more of a trade…. I see your point tho
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 12:18 pm
@jakef1111: yes but need to see a pattern or other even for a trade and vix can go to sub 14 before any real market decline and good VIX move. market cant breach using S&P as an example here 1850 on a closing basis tried yesterday and failed as we are too oversold on a few metrics. Lets watch it and our individual stocks
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 12:19 pm
@eryba1: what i dnt get is how uvxy or tvix could get to there highs from 3yrs ago… Is that because of the fees on the etfs?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 12:24 pm
@jakef1111: U mean how could they get back to those old hi’s?
JSmith
February 25, 2014 – 12:27 pm
@eryba1: what price would you look to add more FB?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@JSmith: 50 day moving avg is at 60, so at this point unless market declines to alleviate overbought nature 60 is perhaps too far below. I would need to see how FB is acting as a stock.
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 12:48 pm
@eryba1: yes and how have they lost so much value
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 12:49 pm
Weres cody hes not sleeping anymore or what??
Benb
February 25, 2014 – 12:57 pm
Making some big money on these TSLA calls I bought on 2/20 at the open. It looked like it was going to roll over the day after I bought it and I almost sold lol. This is only a trade based on the technicals though and I’ll be out of it sooner rather than later.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 12:58 pm
@Benb: 18% rise huge volume, lots of short sellers jumping ship. Good call on TSLA. Hindsight is 20/20 should have never sold at 150 my small position but instead FB, CIEN and others have more than made up for it.
jpsr1975
February 25, 2014 – 1:07 pm
What guys are u doing? Trimming? Buying?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:09 pm
@jpsr1975: good question today. Everyone should have dry powder as we are overbought, individual stocks though are acting well for now. U can read prior remarks today as to whats being bought, some jdsu, amzn to name a few by some TWC members.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:12 pm
lets see if gold can close above 1338 now at 1342.8. Many had though if it does it can start another leg higher. Lets us watch as gld and now GDX are green for the day
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 1:21 pm
unless fslr has big beat on er think its a sell the news event
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:22 pm
@Golfcar101: that has been this markets reaction during this earnings period. Either beat and guid higher or in line and guide higher those have been the tokens that are rewarded. Others all saw 10% declines if not more.
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 1:28 pm
@eryba1: do you have an opinion on fslr
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:29 pm
@Golfcar101: yes
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 1:29 pm
yes?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:30 pm
if one is worried going into the qtr after a20% rise from 48 sell some, SCTY is not competing with FSLR snf off the TSLA news batterty solar etc its up 4-6%
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:30 pm
thats SCTY is NOW competing
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 1:30 pm
thank you
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:32 pm
@Golfcar101: anytime a company has run into earnings its wise to be cautious. U can always buy back if it rallies or decline but the STING of BEING ALL IN into earnings after such a move is painful.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:33 pm
@Golfcar101: Always stressing here on any position before earnings these questions. How much is the stock a % of your portfolio? when did U buy? etc etc each and every stock should be scrutinized into earnings, to give back hard won gains is painful. We have not seen OK earnings be rewarded at all they need to be Ok and raise guidance, beat and raise guidance otherwise profit taking will creek in.
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 1:36 pm
good advice thank you
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 1:59 pm
anyone watching adding jdsu? Seems to be wanting to TRY to break above 13.6 13.7 area small W btm consolidation. Watching to see if it can make the move higher.
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 2:03 pm
watching only have half position in jdsu
msamuels2000
February 25, 2014 – 2:09 pm
@eryba1: just completed my JDSU and INVN positions today – Have you already trimmed FB?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:09 pm
@msamuels2000: trimmed FB no I have not
carl
February 25, 2014 – 2:17 pm
@eryba1 @cody What is your take on Tesla? Is this total bs pushed by the government or will they actually be able to sell cars to the uber wealthy? What is the future? Should be be short or long?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:25 pm
@carl: carl- I should have stuck to my initial belief about TSLA when I bot a few shares a 124. I sold way too early. I think TSLA is the future. If U have ever seen one, sat in one, seen its features, styling, test drove one then someone could understand. It will sell more cars as long as not battery issues with this giga battery plant. Valuations are indeed stretched but the vision and allure of this car company are the future. Price may be ahead of the value of the earnings itself but for the few market stocks like TSLA that hasnt stopped the price from growing to places the company itself has yet to be in, but will.
carl
February 25, 2014 – 2:29 pm
@eryba1 I have read articles saying that the battery technology will never fly , that the storage never be sufficient for real use. BTW, 200 miles is quite small. It is a commuter car at best. Also, where do we generate the electricity necessary to service the cars? From coal?
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 2:31 pm
agree with carl for the price of the car for 200-300 miles could hire a limo to drive me around
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:31 pm
@carl: service the cars? SCTY. Everyone has an opinion. I guess they arent shareholders as for now they are right. And OH yeah they have been right since 24 a share last year or 16 months ago. Car and driver said it was the best ride in a vehicle EVER best scores EVER. For a startup? Stcosk doing the talking everyone else is just moving their lips.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:32 pm
@Golfcar101: Most cars on a full tank on AVg get 150-250 miles depending on the fuel tank size.Taking into acct suv’s as well.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:33 pm
@Golfcar101: no doubt price is expensive its priced as a luxury vehicle.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:34 pm
znga catching a bid up 3.5% in last few min
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 2:35 pm
never had a car that would only go 150-200 miles and most were suv`s lot easier though to pull in for gas than look for a electrical charging station on the hwy. somewhere but like you said everyone has an opinion and congrats to the longs in tsla
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:37 pm
@Golfcar101: U R right tesla filling stations are just beginning, this is the future becoming the present vs the present becoming the future. It takes time ti build it all out. YES congrats to the LONG in TSLA at 24, FB longs in 20’s the future is in a handful of pioneers. AMZN, GOOG, FB, TSLA, YELP, BIOTECH, 3D stocks, SOLAR energy, NFLX, and maybe APPLE one day again.
Golfcar101
February 25, 2014 – 2:38 pm
agree there
msamuels2000
February 25, 2014 – 2:47 pm
@eryba1: thanks – I didn’t sense any weakness with FB unless a wider market downturn takes it lower. Still holding
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 2:48 pm
@msamuels2000: feels that way now- Things can change but for now I am holding my position
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 3:20 pm
@eryba1: hard to gauge if the market waffles under resis or has a pullback seems like a lot of buyers jump in on little dips…
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 3:22 pm
@eryba1: what do you think of cody
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 3:23 pm
letting ddd go i thought with recent announcements it was looking better
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 3:24 pm
@jakef1111: it needs to digest the gains of this V shaped move and for now doing so nicely. Needs to cintinue.
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 3:24 pm
@jakef1111: think of cody? in what respect do u mean?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 3:26 pm
@jakef1111: ddd- of the 3 basked 3d stocks management is always key and ddd has had the weakest. From what I hear SSYS is the strongest.
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 3:37 pm
@eryba1: the stage that space is in has to make it difficult to choose thats for sure… Just thought with the recent partnerships ddd made with hersheys/exsoskel/teeth implants… It might get a stay of execution…. I truly regret selling ssys i had at 78…… I trimmed n trimmed and it kept running ohh well
jakef1111
February 25, 2014 – 3:40 pm
@eryba1: i cant imagine a bear feeling comfortable right now can you?
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 3:43 pm
@jakef1111: we can only look forward and know to sell in stages keep a core if a stock is acting that well vs selling all. Sell rips buy dips of a well acting and quarterly performing stock. As for bears yes many complaining and for that matter bulls as well they want a steeper decline to get back in vs up moves or sideways action.
jahmon
February 25, 2014 – 4:22 pm
FSLR chunking
eryba1
February 25, 2014 – 5:01 pm
@jahmon: FSLR- this is the recipe- Miss and or guide lower and u see a 10% decline. We have seen this over and over. This is why the ones who DONT do this and guide higher are the leaders and when they decline they usually decline the least and bounce the most to new his, ALA GOOG, FB, AKAM,TRIP, YELP,LNKD, CMG
jahmon
February 25, 2014 – 5:08 pm
Glad I got out w profits last quarter
Cody
February 25, 2014 – 6:27 pm
$FSLR’s report is no shock, and neither is the stock reaction. Since I turned from outright short to long on the solar industry about 15 months ago, we’ve done very well as has the industry. Profits were strong, the pipeline is what it is supposed to be if not stronger, and while we have successfully navigated these swings a couple times over the past year, I’m planning on holding my $FSLR steady for now.
JSmith
February 25, 2014 – 6:37 pm
@Cody: didn’t they blow estimates out last quarter. In that business, things are not on a smooth trajectory…depends on when things are realized. What level would you add more?
Cody
February 25, 2014 – 10:54 pm
@JSmith: I’ve had some nice timing on the short-term tranche buys and sells in $FSLR over the last few quarters a few times, but I’m not feeling in sync enough with it right now to add.
Cody
February 25, 2014 – 10:54 pm
If you have no position in $FSLR and are looking to start one, I always suggest starting small with a toe in the water and then scaling into more over time.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 8:09 am
LinkedIn upgraded at RBC FEB 26, 2014 | 7:47 AM EST LNKD was upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform, RBC Capital said. $250 price target. Valuation call, as the stock is down 13% over the past six months.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 8:48 am
Bitcoin article / video on recent MT Gox -http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/02/25/bitcoin-collapse-exchange/5818955/
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 8:56 am
Apple trying to form a cup and handle formation? Handle part being carved out here at 520+525? let see if it holds / forms.
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:18 am
@eryba1: g’morning-
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 9:19 am
@Turtle108: thoughts on SDRL?
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:22 am
@eryba1: perhaps, others see what I see which LNKD, time will tell. @Cody: thank you for the recommendation and will do so today. Best, C
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:23 am
@JSmith: I still think it’s ok- getting some differing opinions from analysts- now selling at an 11% yield. Should be at an 8-9% yield- I think people will come to their senses, but it may take time- that being said, I had an overweight position and I took it down to a regular size- others I know are adding here.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:30 am
GM- a slow start to the day with a slight positive bias to the upside in the futures so far this morning. Baltic dry up yet again + 25 to 1222 nearly a 2 week rise off the bottom and more than 10% higher from the basing action. FSLR is down near 13% after its 20% rise from 48 its giving some back and perhaps the SCTY entry into the commercial sector is taking some affect on FSLR. Gold is down 8 dollars to 1332 and has been consolidating at these levels. Lets see how the day progresses.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:30 am
@Turtle108: GM- welcome bk
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:32 am
@eryba1: thanks . had some medical adventures, and now my mom is going thru a big one- been very distracted, but trying to keep up!
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 9:32 am
Good morn and prayers to Turtle108’s mom.
Golfcar101
February 26, 2014 – 9:33 am
@Turtle108: hope all gets better for you and mom
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:33 am
@Turtle108: OH- SORRY to hear- all the best- never easy.
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:34 am
@Turtle108: wishing your family the best.
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:34 am
@Cody: that’s so sweet, many thanks- at 85 she’s a toughie, but things get hard . thanks eryba and gold car! so nice to have you all here!
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:34 am
@Turtle108: Pick a topic- want to discuss anything today? Shinny metals? other?
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:35 am
@Cody: on the fslr front, how much of a tranche buy are you suggesting?
rzepeda
February 26, 2014 – 9:35 am
Just want to say I love these chats and thank each one of you that contributes. @turtle108: wishing your mother the best
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:35 am
@chrismossey: I have to wonder is SCTY eating into FSLR biz?
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:36 am
@eryba1: well, shiny metals have to correct at some point, the stks not going up the past 2 days while gold was up a lot was the tell, but I was asleep at the wheel- I have cash and am looking to deploy some into Cody’s picks- not sure where to start.
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 9:36 am
@chrismossey: Well, $FSLR is right back where it was just about eight trading days ago. So not much of a new opportunity here for me, and I’m not adding to it, but maybe a 1/4 or a 1/5 tranche, I guess would make sense.
Golfcar101
February 26, 2014 – 9:37 am
when dose fslr get put out like ddd last 5 er 3 miss 2 beat glad i sold not rushing to get back in
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:37 am
@chrismossey: thanks for the thoughts, appreciate it- rzepeda you too.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:37 am
@Turtle108: it can always consolidate as well, thought was by many a move over 1338 and close there would bring about anew leg higher, so far has not emerged.
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:38 am
@eryba1: lets get amzn going, retail is not as bad as people are suggesting if what I witnessed down here in florida were to grip the country post cold weather, things will be great.
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:38 am
@eryba1: noticing this morning , if it lasts, the metal stks are resisting the down in gold, always a good sign-
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:39 am
@chrismossey: I dont think online spending will decrease just increase
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:40 am
@eryba1: i.e. GDX right now down .16 – SLW down .04-
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:40 am
@eryba1: @Cody: should we start to look ZU? Quite a move yesterday and perhaps deserves a look on a pull back.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:41 am
@Turtle108: yes good consolidation that is for sure so far
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:41 am
@chrismossey: zulilly yes online specialty online sales
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 9:42 am
@chrismossey: I’m not a fan of buying anything but the best-of for the online retail industry…and that means sticking with $AMZN. No $ZU for me.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:43 am
@chrismossey: the action in SCTY has me believing its the winner and with MUSK as its head it gets extra upside today + %% off FSLR decline 10% instead of moving down if the sector is slowing ala FSLR #’s
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:43 am
@Cody: I’ve been looking for a chance to get into AMZN- would you buy a first tranche here and then wait, or just wait for a pullback
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:45 am
@eryba1: LNKD quickly approaching 220, lets see if it sticks.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:45 am
@chrismossey: decision time?
Jeffhok1970
February 26, 2014 – 9:45 am
I am curious…what is everyone’s one favorite stock right now.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:45 am
@Jeffhok1970: to hold? buy? trim? in its future?
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:48 am
@eryba1: yes, with a smile.
msamuels2000
February 26, 2014 – 9:48 am
Why is DLTR up 4+% on an ER miss and lowered forecast?
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 9:48 am
Funniest #SignOfTheBubble I’ve seen today: “$INAR has a marijuana app in development. $PHOT $MCIG $CBIS $HEMP $MJNA” Combining buzz words to hype it up, baby! REMEMBER DO NOT BUY PENNY POT STOCKS. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/cody/2014/02/13/you-have-to-be-a-dope-to-buy-marijuana-stock/
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:49 am
@Jeffhok1970: FB and yelp for me.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:50 am
@Jeffhok1970: Fb and GOOG
Jeffhok1970
February 26, 2014 – 9:52 am
@eryba1: Your favorite long play/buy right now, today. anyone have one?
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:53 am
@Jeffhok1970: SLW, only if gold continue up, FB , what a winner!!!!!
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:53 am
@Jeffhok1970: long play is still FB, would I add at 70+ thats tough, If U had none do as cody says 1/4 or 1/5 tranche to just be IN, otherwise after its great run buy at 68 or 69 handle a better entry as we had yesterday perhaps.
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 9:54 am
@eryba1: where would you add to GOOG? AMZN?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:55 am
@chrismossey: not to harp on this, its early today but NO support for apple even here at 519 so far. Watching this for cup and handle or W retest at 490-500
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 9:56 am
@eryba1: Mental stop triggered. I am out.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:57 am
Lets not forget market is still overbought internals wise to really have a leg higher but individual stocks doing their thing. Will JDSU breakout today?
msamuels2000
February 26, 2014 – 9:57 am
@Jeffhok1970: I’ll tell you tonight after BIDU reports
Also like the steady upward action and commodity hedge of GLCNF
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 9:59 am
what is the deal with tza
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 9:59 am
shoul we buy it
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 9:59 am
@chrismossey: good U put in some triggers for yourself. It just doesnt act well and it CANT as NO NEWS to drive it, so people wait for 2nd half of 2014 when they were told products are supposed to be coming.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 10:00 am
@badrook: tza? why
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 10:00 am
@eryba1: I have learned something for my investing future. I do not like owning companies that don’t offer strong insight into their plans. Apple and Tim cook are the worst at this and it gnaws at me constantly. I am moving on and will probably regret it but I feel better with companies that explain themselves well and demonstrate vision.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 10:01 am
@chrismossey: yes mental aspect must be clear to make good decisions vs being weighed upon all the time.
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 10:01 am
@eryba1 I see TZA always does down last one year… Is it worth buying it ?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 10:02 am
@badrook: stick to the winning better performing stocks, Amzn corrected I bought yesterday, JDSU, INVN, GOOG,FB SNDK ZNGA, U have any of these?
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 10:03 am
I have major in FB
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 10:03 am
and some in JDSU
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 10:03 am
but no goog, SNDK
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 10:03 am
@badrook: OK so diversify into some amzn, goog, and the others
Jeffhok1970
February 26, 2014 – 10:04 am
good stuff gang. Really appreciate your opinions. Have a great day in the markets!
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 10:05 am
stepping out for a meeting be back shortly.
badrook
February 26, 2014 – 10:08 am
FSLR is down big time today
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 10:12 am
@JSmith: FWIW, ” If oil stays around its current level of $100 a barrel, major oil companies will continue spending huge amounts on exploration. This will keep the order books full for most of these offshore drillers. And all the bad news is priced into these stocks by now. That means at least a short-term rally is in the cards. ”
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 10:15 am
@eryba1: Sitting here and thinking about apple. One can easily start to question why the people there make so much money. They are simply operators of a business now. Why is Angel Ahrendts worth 27 million when she is just operating stores and not growing the business based on her work. Perhaps we will see it, but again, why not lay out a vision. My view at the moment is that people at apple are grossly overpaid for what they do at this point in their corporate life cycle.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 10:17 am
Bought some tsla puts bout 10 mins ago man that thing moves already up a few pts
jahmon
February 26, 2014 – 10:27 am
@jakef111 Hedges make me sick in this market…
sudesh
February 26, 2014 – 10:33 am
@eryba1: hello…is there going to be weekly chat today?
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 10:36 am
@sudesh: Yes, I’ll meet u guys for our weekly Live Q&A Chat at 2pm EST at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 10:37 am
@jahmon: well the market is trying to break out… They should were positioned long its a just in case position
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 10:41 am
@chrismossey: Right now U should mentally focus on winning stocks such as INVN JDSU breaking out today? early but good action, FB, CIEN AMZN GOOG. Why apple exec’s make what they do is not helpful IMHO
drefleury
February 26, 2014 – 11:00 am
rzepeda
February 26, 2014 – 11:03 am
Is there a private messaging feature on this site?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 11:03 am
@rzepeda: yes click on the persons name on left side column
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 11:08 am
@chrismossey: FWIW, I totally agree that AAPL overpays execs ridiculously. Apple underpays its retail staff and underlings terribly.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 11:09 am
@Cody: time to buy tsla puts
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 11:10 am
@jakef1111: That a statement or a question?
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 11:14 am
@Cody: both
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 11:16 am
@Cody: would you rather wait to see it down? Had another gap up today maybe a late day fade sets up a short term top?
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 11:20 am
Is anybody around here outright BEARISH and/or outright SHORT? Even the bears are bullish right now, it seems. Bueller?
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 11:20 am
@jakef1111: Wanna see it down, yes. But a tranche buy of $TSLA puts up here ain’t a horrible idea. Give yourself a few months tho.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 11:21 am
BUELLER?
bearish? No getting / feeling we need a pullback or digestion period as certain stocks continue higher. then YES.
drefleury
February 26, 2014 – 11:24 am
@Cody: I think bears are scared
msamuels2000
February 26, 2014 – 11:30 am
@Cody: metals taking a dump today – perhaps the start of that last shake out
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 11:37 am
this MIGHT be a big pullback brewing in the metals, you never know what’s coming- but this was option-exp week, and the metals tend to get beaten up- from Jesse last night:
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 11:37 am
The option expiry was quiet, not unexpected for the less consequential March contract. We *might* get a gutcheck on the new longs if there was a significant amount of call options coming in the money.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 11:42 am
@Turtle108: GDX has been in a range 25.5 -26.5 for 2-3 weeks so far.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 11:52 am
Market keeps getting rejected at 1850 on the S&P we can always go sideways longer to work off the overbought nature. However seeing codys post here today and reading what I am reading I am inclined to trim in a few names just to lock in some profits and increase my cash position incase we pullback first before we see 1850 taken out when we are less overbought. My accts are out performing once more so I want to lock in some GOOG, FB,AMZN
kirank
February 26, 2014 – 11:57 am
cody- what $TSLA puts strike price and expiration would you recommend?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 12:01 pm
@Cody: U interested to buy more apple at 500 or under when apple is buying bk its shares?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 12:07 pm
@Turtle108: adding more GDX on this 2% pullback today. 1/2 a tranche.
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@eryba1: be careful here- gold has come a long way- i think you’re right but that doesn’t matter-
i am looking to add to a few of my tiny jrs here- i just added to SGR.to/SGRCF . I owned this yrs ago at $3.50- now at .22- started buying at .12 , but as it is now a penny stk, I don’t like to mention it-
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 12:27 pm
@Turtle108: yes be careful i general for my accounts. we have been VERY productive YTD in our stock selections as S&P is UNCh for the year and we are seeing very SOLID returns almost 2 months in. Gold I understand, being patient with addition using the GDX.
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 12:38 pm
@Turtle108: what do you think about deep on the money leap for gdxj? Jan 16 $20. If things turn around, can control 100 shares for half the money
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 12:39 pm
@msamuels2000: perhaps this is finally a final scare to finally finalize the bottom in the metals?
nimsri
February 26, 2014 – 12:56 pm
@eryba1 ARe you adding FSLR here
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 12:57 pm
@nimsri: NO- not interested in dead money stock at this point.
nimsri
February 26, 2014 – 1:02 pm
Thank you
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 1:04 pm
@eryba1: hoping you made a very good buy-!!
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 1:05 pm
@Turtle108: 25.85 it was a1/2 a tranche buy.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@Turtle108: Its almost like a see saw like action, some stock rip higher after some time, we take partial profits, others decline on no bad company specific news just a pullback and we buy those. If we can actively manage our accounts I think we can outperform the market averages.
rkumar
February 26, 2014 – 1:08 pm
I shorted ibb today—too scared to short spy qqq
rkumar
February 26, 2014 – 1:11 pm
tlt up 5 p for year
Turtle108
February 26, 2014 – 1:13 pm
@eryba1: GDX back over $26, this minute at least- as usual, let’s see the close-
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 1:14 pm
@rkumar: i would be more scared to short ibb make sure u have time on that one i bought tsla puts for april
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 1:15 pm
@Turtle108: correct. Our stocks in general doing well.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 1:15 pm
I like to use uvxy for downturns tho in the low 60s where its at seems to work ok
rkumar
February 26, 2014 – 1:19 pm
ive raised the most amount of cash possible–mkts run has been too much too fast in my opinion–im fully hedged
rkumar
February 26, 2014 – 1:20 pm
ibb in trouble watch out below–bis is ultrashort niotech
rkumar
February 26, 2014 – 1:21 pm
get small guys–no fear out there–cnbc is having a party
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 1:55 pm
anyone looking to trim some of the market leaders? SNDk, FB,GOOG to name a few?
Cody
February 26, 2014 – 2:00 pm
Come meet me right now for this week’s Live Q&A Chat at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 2:08 pm
@eryba1: looking for them to dip at this point
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 2:13 pm
@Cody: i might have picked a short term tesla top with the puts i bought but does this company interest you to buy at some point? Or are the fundamentals so disconnected from the stock price its not attractive.. Would it be attractive to purchase some long tsla shares at any point to you basically
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 2:14 pm
Meant to type that in weekly chat
Golfcar101
February 26, 2014 – 2:53 pm
MARKET PULSE Archives Feb. 26, 2014, 2:44 p.m. EST Sen. Manchin calls for federal ban on bitcoin can`t be good when feds get involved
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 2:56 pm
@Golfcar101: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sen-manchin-calls-for-federal-ban-on-bitcoin-2014-02-26?link=MW_latest_news
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@jakef1111: yes dipping already, S&P has hit 1850 a few times now lots of sellers, maybe a pullback here and then a follow through to break above when the market is less overbought. Again individual stocks will do their thing stocks that have pulled back already or not advanced as much may act differently.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 3:15 pm
@eryba1: my tsla puts r working also sold some covered calls and bought uvxy
jahmon
February 26, 2014 – 3:19 pm
I sold the few bitcoins that I had…not for me.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:19 pm
@jakef1111: That for now seems like a VERY good addition to your portfolio
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:23 pm
Apple trying to get straight down to $500 in rapid fashion over the last week or so
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:24 pm
@JSmith: seems that way, but not so fast! more like painful gravity pulling force on this apple.
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 3:25 pm
@eryba1: yea i have tight stops no doubt still bullish market and any dip is being bought but wanna be prepared in case the decline is a little steeper
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:26 pm
@jakef1111: yes thus my trim today on the leaders I mentioned. Just preparing if we do see a few % pullback QQQ 87-88 perhaps. lets see what the market gives us. We are too overbought to have a next leg higher in the markets. Individual stocks is as always a diff matter
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:30 pm
@eryba1: what are you thinking for a play for Apple? They are saying it will be range bound over the next year or so. Hopefully Cook has things planned for this year. What point are you looking to beat the crowd and ride Apple back up to the higher 500s?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:31 pm
@jahmon: I agree, enough risk in stocks for now. No need for added risk IMHO
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:36 pm
@JSmith: apple play again lets see where it finds support 515-516 or retest lows 490-500. Needs products announcement which is 2nd half 2014 story or other news. its all about news. Could be china mobile sales # higher than expected etc
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:36 pm
@JSmith: truth be told we dont know where it will go eventually if / when news does come out. that is why we try to buy uptremding stocks that pullback that have good qtrs, news, products other apple is not there now.
slonda
February 26, 2014 – 3:38 pm
@eryba1: groupon? forming a base after nice selloff I would say…
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:40 pm
@slonda: base takes time, grpn dead cat bounce so far. lets invest in better performing companies with better fundamentals. Thats how we outperform in our accounts. IMO
slonda
February 26, 2014 – 3:41 pm
@eryba1: thx for you insights/lessons!!!
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 3:41 pm
@eryba1: thinkin of doing an iron condor on the spxw with everyone waiting for a big move maybe we get sideways action
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:42 pm
@eryba1: so with Apple, you are not buying anymore really until they announce something everyone loves and says is innovative?
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 3:44 pm
@eryba1: Back to the office now, so yours and Cody’s comments on Apple – I agree. Did you start to buy cien back or are you waiting?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:45 pm
@jakef1111: we could get sideways action that why we wait to see what we are given by market before acting with actions like shorting the market until we see weakness
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:45 pm
@JSmith: apple I want to add what I sold at 545. I will wait to see if it see support here at 515 or does see 490-500.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:46 pm
@chrismossey: I bout a tranche yesterday at 24.7
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:46 pm
thats bougt
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:46 pm
bought
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 3:46 pm
@eryba1: thank you sir. I have an order in at 24.85
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:46 pm
@eryba1: ok thanks, wait do you use to talk support levels…moving avg?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:47 pm
@JSmith: yes moving avg, gut, what I read it all gets assessed and then I take or dont take action.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:49 pm
@JSmith: nothing is certain on apple news can come out TSLA, CHINA, transaction biz and it can fly or not, However it acts so weak as the street expects just a 2nd half of 2014 product launch. It seems to want to retest 490-500 at that point will examine it, oversold, will it hold 500? etc etc
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 3:51 pm
@eryba1: I added 1/2 tranche of gdxj today. seems to like that 41-44 range at the moment.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:51 pm
@chrismossey: and please dont call me sir!
from what I gather U R in a diff age bracket than me!!
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:52 pm
@chrismossey: yes rangebound for gld gdx and gdxj for now.
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:52 pm
@eryba1: thanks, will wait for your lead to get in more…My emotions get in the way of good trading with Apple
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 3:52 pm
@eryba1: not sure – I won’t – more a figure of speach. I am 45.
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:52 pm
@chrismossey: 40 here
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 3:53 pm
the golden years or is that later in life…..
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:53 pm
@chrismossey: did you buy gdxj or buy leaps?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@chrismossey: golden when we are in the sunshine and palm trees of Florida, now we are in the arctic years under the force of the polar vortex!!
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:54 pm
btw, did you ever buy those 16 leaps of FB I was talking bout or did you stick with the stock itself?
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 3:56 pm
@JSmith: I bought the sept 14 70’s and Jan 15 65’s over the last week have traded in out. Holding the Jan 15’s steady.
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 3:59 pm
@chrismossey: yeah, I think I bought Jan 16 $30. I went deep in the money since at the time it didn’t really have a premium. Hopefully FB appreciates over the next 2 years.
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 4:00 pm
MIDD continues to go up
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 4:01 pm
@JSmith: best stock EVER!!!!!!
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 4:01 pm
@JSmith: I am going to by May 60 /65/70 contracts this week.
chrismossey
February 26, 2014 – 4:01 pm
@eryba1: which one?
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 4:03 pm
@JSmith: I have none, I should buy but never do and all it does is continue to outperform every stock EVER of all time- MIDD
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 4:04 pm
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 4:05 pm
@chrismossey: they are in your neck of the woods biz wise- food equipment.
JSmith
February 26, 2014 – 4:08 pm
@eryba1: yeah, until I buy a size able amount, then it would be the peak and reverse the climb
eryba1
February 26, 2014 – 4:09 pm
@JSmith: buy pullbacks in tranches like all the other stocks we have been acting on in the same manner and have been handsomely rewarded YTD
jakef1111
February 26, 2014 – 9:26 pm
Crap tesla is ramping after hours
