Subscriber Chat Room Archive (February 27th – March 5th)
Here is the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:11 am
First Solar upgraded at Baird FEB 27, 2014 | 7:36 AM EST FSLR was upgraded from Neutral to Outperform, Robert Baird said. $67 price target. Company is a market leader and should continue to improve its finances.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:31 am
@eryba1: you buying any FSLR?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:32 am
@JSmith: no
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:34 am
@eryba1: if you owned MIDD, would you sell half today and wait for the price to come back down toward the trend line? i.e. 270
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:35 am
I.E. IS IT OVER BOUGHT
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:36 am
@JSmith: 1/2? perhaps as the RSI is VERY hi and yes it is overbought at this point
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:36 am
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:37 am
@eryba1: would you go less than a half? looking to rebuy in it later
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:38 am
@JSmith: RT now lets monitor the situation in the Ukraine and the 10 year yield dropping again under 2.7%. Both not good harbingers for the market in general and with the weekend fast approaching perhaps issues in Russia as a result and many will not want to be heavily INVESTED in an overbought market over the weekend.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:38 am
@JSmith: do U own MIDD?
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:41 am
@eryba1: yeah a little. I am just trying to get more in tune with your approach to sell rips, buy dips and use TA
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:42 am
Once again the Baltic Dry Index is up for a 12 th straight day (BDI) +28 1250 up 16% since the bottom at 1085 2-3 weeks ago
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:42 am
@JSmith: what is your costs basis if U want to let me know?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:45 am
@JSmith: if you actively manage your account and are around to watch the stock yes as this overbought levels (it can always get further overbought as things can get further oversold) I would sell perhaps 1/2 if U can watch it and get back in if it declines to 270-280 range. We dont need where the market will take it we just need to watch what it gives us.. Your cost basis plays heavily as well so that is a contributing factor.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:54 am
I have had it for years so $70 about
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:54 am
@JSmith: BRAVO!
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:55 am
@JSmith: have U increased your shares in or or just let what u 1st purchased ride?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:57 am
I ask to know have U sold rips , bought dips? if not then why start now. If U are not around a monitor to catch rips higher buy dips lower this stock has been a great company and investment, why change your style now if things have not changed. If you dont need the money, are already diversified continue what U R doing.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:57 am
Don’t have much of it though…looking to get more involved with stocks like y’all since I had simply rode waves up and down and have been crushed with other stocks riding the falling knife
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 8:58 am
are u around a monitor to catch rips higher buy dips? I mean thats the key to stay on top of things, see what its doing, read what its doing, affected by overall markets etc.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 8:59 am
@eryba1: I just let first purchase ride…no adding
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:01 am
@JSmith: OK, again if not around a screen to watch it let it play itself out unless U need the cash, want to take off original investment and some profits and let the rest ride.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:01 am
Baidu.com upgraded at Stifel FEB 27, 2014 | 7:39 AM EST BIDU was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Stifel Nicolaus said. $238 price target. Mobile search franchise is rapidly growing. BIDUBearish Baidu.com downgraded at Morgan Stanley FEB 27, 2014 | 8:09 AM EST BIDU was downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight, Morgan Stanley said. $179.60 price target. Company guided to lower margins.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:18 am
It maybe just me but I really like the article on INVN I posted above, I know INVN had a good day yesterday and a near 2% rise this morning in the pre market But I want to add another tranche today. I will see if I get a chance. I dont like to chase after a good run. I want to make this wearable tech company as this sector is in its INFANCY maybe HUGE. Cody may have found another multi bagger. Will have to BREAK an iwatch to know if INVN products won into it, but apple is just one player. Lets watch and see.
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 9:36 am
@eryba1: What price would you be targeting? I know you have stated that you don’t use options but have you ever considered writing puts as a way of buying in at a lower cost?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:38 am
@Olivepetunia: I have always used common shares. Had the most success there.
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 9:40 am
@eryba1: Doesn’t really answer question: sell put as a way to buy common at lower cost.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:41 am
@Olivepetunia: no puts, no calls, no options. price targeting INVN?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:44 am
@Olivepetunia: I would rather wait and see what INVN does vs write puts on it, I am not saying 19 before 22 that I dont know so I would not put my capital in such a trade. My job investing has me seeing the days action so I can watch patiently and act when I think its best.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 9:45 am
@eryba1: thanks
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:47 am
fslr acting VERY STRONG on todays upgrade up near 6-7% so far today.
dannychan1
February 27, 2014 – 9:48 am
@eryba1: you mentioned that you maybe tranching into invn… What levels are u looking to do that?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:49 am
@dannychan1: current levsl
dannychan1
February 27, 2014 – 9:49 am
@eryba1: what size are u looking to add? 1/2? 1/3?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:50 am
@dannychan1: question is do U have any? non?etc?
dannychan1
February 27, 2014 – 9:52 am
@eryba1: I have got 1/3 of my position at 20.5
dannychan1
February 27, 2014 – 9:53 am
@eryba1: I’m looking to add another 1/3 but was thinking at these levels or should I wait for a a better level
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:53 am
\@dannychan1: Ok let it stabilize 1st, I usually like to see the 1st 30 min of trading unless there is news, upgrade or other specific to the stock.
dannychan1
February 27, 2014 – 9:55 am
@eryba1: thanks, keep us posted would like to follow your lead on this stock
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:57 am
@dannychan1: My 30 min is almost up and will see where it is then seems for now to be just about unch, not bad but this moves in chunks as the markets are down and yellen is about to speak and the 10 yr yield is dropping to 2.644% not sure why?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 9:58 am
meanwhile GDX is up nicely so far to start the day , finally separating its mirror image moves with what the market is doing? too early to tell for now.
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 10:02 am
Tsla up 627% -52weeks???? Crazy
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:03 am
@jakef1111: up 1000+% in 18 months
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:06 am
@jakef1111: should have followed my Heart 18 months ago sat with my 6 yr old son in a tESLA in a NJ mall showroom and spoke to rep for 30 min in and out of CAR it was stunning, shares were $24 then.
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 10:13 am
@eryba1: thats crazy you cant really beat yourself up about it…. Thats why i was asking cody about what it would take for him to buy it… They have a lot of avenues for growth diff models of vehicles the car catches your eye on the fwy here in ca… I understand the issue with gov subs and all that but at a certain point or at what point does that matter if they are moving units and making money and being greener and cleaner…. Im thinkin of buying around 200 just to see… Right now my puts look ok i got a little scare last night but its crazy overextended im still short…
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 10:14 am
i see the media spinning anything or something yellen says for a pullback today not big but continuing the waffling just at the lower end of the range well see
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:19 am
I wanted to ask anyone watching their screen / stock program daily? Are you seeing , feeling, certain stocks have strength on down and up day in the market?
Turtle108
February 27, 2014 – 10:20 am
@JSmith: SDRL is coming back to life-
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:20 am
@jakef1111: not beating myself up, Just knowing in future to go with my gut until proven otherwise. So learning FROM THAT. why I have had SUCH conviction in a FB, CIEN, GOOG, AMZN and others. Learning from my mistakes
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 10:21 am
@eryba1: aapl?!?!? Of all things looks strong
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:21 am
@jakef1111: trying to find some support at a TA level of 515-516
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:24 am
@dannychan1: going t add that INVN now
msamuels2000
February 27, 2014 – 10:37 am
XONE crossed resistance…how high can it go?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:38 am
@msamuels2000: 50 day moving avg ceiling stands at 53-54
Turtle108
February 27, 2014 – 10:38 am
@eryba1: I added a little too- (INVN)
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:41 am
nice action in quite a few names FSLR, XONE, TQNT, YELP, MIDD, GDX
lfnunnally
February 27, 2014 – 10:41 am
@erbya1: what are your thoughts on adding to AMZN today?
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 10:41 am
Sold INVN March $21 puts @ $1.10
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:42 am
@lfnunnally: depends how much U currently have? cost basis? $% of your portfolio?
lfnunnally
February 27, 2014 – 10:42 am
I have 1/3 tranche
lfnunnally
February 27, 2014 – 10:43 am
@erbya1: I added at 358
lfnunnally
February 27, 2014 – 10:44 am
@erbya1: what do you think of AAPl junp today? Has it stabilized?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:44 am
@lfnunnally: so rt about here, u arent hurting your cost basis or lowering it much. I like amazon I want to see if it trades in its range 360-345
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:44 am
@lfnunnally: trying to find some support at a TA level of 515-516
lfnunnally
February 27, 2014 – 10:52 am
@erbya1: thank you
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:53 am
@lfnunnally: on amazon want to see it break its range on upside above 360 rt now just in a range.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 10:54 am
@eryba1: you should have went with your gut on TSLA
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:55 am
@JSmith: should would kuda!!!
I did with others after that lesson. FB, AMZN, GOOG< CIEN and others
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 10:59 am
@eryba1: Is TA = Technical Analysis? Does the 515-516 relate to the trading range between mid Oct and mid Dec? If not, then what?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 10:59 am
@Olivepetunia: yes TA- technical analysis, 515-516 = Fibonacci Retracement levels some TA use
Jeffhok1970
February 27, 2014 – 11:01 am
Anyone have a thought on SPLK. I bought it at the end of Jan for 75ish. I really like the company but it has sure had a nice run. They report earnings tonight. I just don’t know if there is much upside. Will I hate myself more for selling or holding? Thoughts?
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 11:02 am
@eryba1: I will do some reading on this over the coming weekend; executive summary: do the Fibonacci retracement levels relate to the Oct – Dec range or is this a coincidence?
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 11:03 am
@Turtle108: let’s hope $34-35 is the SDRL bottom.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:04 am
@Jeffhok1970: chart shows greta run, great stock and over extended. Pendulum can swing much father than we ever expect on downside and upside. if U have profits trim some, never leave all on if U R worried, U had a great run why be scared to take some off.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:05 am
@Olivepetunia: they relate to upward moves and then levels of support on the downside one could look for market support at, again just one tool
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:08 am
@Jeffhok1970: if it can POSSIBLY run higher U know it safe to buy a pullback if U sell, if U sell and it falls on OK #’s U have fresh capital and sold at higher levels to get back in, if it says bad things chart does not point to that now but U sold some at higher prices? Questions to always ask, whats your cost basis? what % of your acct is this stock? need the $$ for other reasons etc? and just plain old wise money management to always take some profits when you have them. There is no shame if it can run even higher and U sold some, U now haave new capital on the sidelines and some still in a great moving higher stock. Fresh capital to invets and freed up to buy other stocks U didnt have $$ to as U were all in.
rzepeda
February 27, 2014 – 11:11 am
@JSmith: I am thinking of initiating a position in SDRl, seems like a good entry point, any thoughts?
jahmon
February 27, 2014 – 11:12 am
FEYE up 25% over the last few weeks after the buying opportunity after earnings report. Anyone else in FEYE?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:13 am
@jahmon: 45-85 nearly up 100% YTD. nice add on for yourself.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 11:14 am
@rzepeda: Turtle108 is smarter on it than me. I like the dividend, and think know would be a good entry after recent selloff
rzepeda
February 27, 2014 – 11:17 am
@Turtle108: I am thinking of initiating a position in SDRl, seems like a good entry point, any thoughts?
Jeffhok1970
February 27, 2014 – 11:22 am
@eryba1: thanks. always sound advice
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:25 am
@Jeffhok1970: Ur welcome
slonda
February 27, 2014 – 11:35 am
@eryba1: did you find something on xone today to explain the move? ddd and ssys unchanged..
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:37 am
@slonda: I looked earlier and again just now I dont see anything thing myself.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 11:37 am
@eryba1: what is TA telling you for XONE. Doesn’t seem overbought yet
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:38 am
@JSmith: overbought, not at all, resistance levels is its 50 day moving avg at 53 rt now.
Jeffhok1970
February 27, 2014 – 11:42 am
VJET also up today. Someone must be buying the ‘little’ 3D. Anyone buying puts on DDD before earnings tomorrow morning?
slonda
February 27, 2014 – 11:43 am
@eryba1: same with me
Probably too cheap so must go up
Regards
slonda
February 27, 2014 – 11:45 am
added vjet on my screen, it is true, vjet and xone moving like twins today
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:47 am
@Jeffhok1970: DDD pre announced 2 weeks ago that was the reason for the dip to the low 60’s
slonda
February 27, 2014 – 11:49 am
@eryba1: shiny metals? slv looking weak but gdx really strong. who is leading now?
Jeffhok1970
February 27, 2014 – 11:51 am
@eryba1: DDD warned and caused the move but their formal numbers come out tomorrow morning. My thought here is that DDD management could possibly make matters worse tomorrow…(FYI – I am long DDD).
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:51 am
@slonda: gdx gdxj and gld all looking fine consolidating in a range
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 11:53 am
@Jeffhok1970: could make matters worse? There is always that chance. We will know tomorrow. Once again of the 3 in codys basket ddd xone and ssys, ddd was / is weakest of management. I am waiting for SSYS to report next week, I want to add under 120 if possible and no terrible news vs just a pullback. Being patient
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:08 pm
@eryba1: what do you think about CSIQ?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@JSmith: solar has been a leader in this market, scty csiq and today FSLR on an upgrade. Its a go to name on pullbacks for leaders
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:12 pm
@JSmith: from a sage trader: market players realize that the poor report from First Solar (FSLR) is company-specific. Canadian Solar (CSIQ), which is currently my largest position, is chugging away. SunPower (SPWR) also continues to develop nicely and I may make additions there. Daqo New Energy (DQ) and Real Goods Solar (RGSE) are a couple of the solars on my list.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@eryba1: I got out of CSIQ a little while ago. Is this a good reentry point? Looks like it wants to move higher…
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:16 pm
or would you wait to re-enter
nimsri
February 27, 2014 – 12:16 pm
@eryba1 What is your take on SCTY tun
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:23 pm
@JSmith: did U sell all? if so WHY? what was your cost basis?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:24 pm
@nimsri: scty is a winner and musk is a strong leader. The next steve jobs
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:27 pm
@eryba1: I bought a couple options when it was like $5 a share. I owned it a long time ago, and rode it down to single digits. So I figured I would sell, and convert what I had left to long dated option to control more shares. So I made my money back, and sold before exp
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:28 pm
I have to say TQNT is still a MONSTER from 9 to 11.66 and now new yr hi’s 12.6
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:29 pm
I was on a tear though. Just wondering would u buy it now
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:30 pm
@JSmith: Thats why I like common shares U can add reduce never take all off if its acts so well, a core investment to trade around like aFB GOOG AAPL AMZN and others. Why sell winners outright when they have done nothing wrong. sell rips buy dips keep a code especially when your cost basis is low
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@JSmith: U want to chase it? make your new cost basis at new yr hi’s ?
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:33 pm
@eryba1: prob not…those it does look like it wants to break out.Been consolidating for last 2 months in 36-42 range
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:34 pm
so prob just wait to get back down to 37 or so prob smarter..
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:36 pm
@JSmith: csiq looks like it wants to break higher, I though U meant SCTY. Look if U sell all U lose out unless U sell for company specific issues or need the capital.It could breakout easily, U can always buy another tranche here that is up to you. Next time unless a stock acts badly why sell all
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:36 pm
apple acting well bouncing off that TA levels 515-516 now at 526
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:37 pm
@eryba1: copy, agree.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:44 pm
@eryba1: Is that a buy signal in Apple or do you wait?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:45 pm
@JSmith: again do U have some? cost basis? Buy signal is a breakout above 50 day avg to begin with on good volume for apple for me.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:47 pm
i.e. what are you looking for to try and catch the bottom of V in oversold situation. Yep I have some.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:48 pm
@JSmith: we dont need to catch the bottom, the bottom is only know after upward move had begun, and a bottom has been formed thats why U add slowly or on breakouts.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:48 pm
@JSmith: apple is not oversold
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 12:51 pm
@eryba1: you are right, you use RSI for that mainly?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:52 pm
@JSmith: for stock by stock on oversold yes
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:53 pm
@JSmith: but it just tells U where its at not how low or hi it can go even when rsi looks too hi and too low
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 12:54 pm
nice breakout in JDSU and follow through occurring today. Lets see the close to confirm things
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:19 pm
@eryba1: what was your entry price w/ JDSU?
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:23 pm
Technical analyst on apple just now: The short term buy triggers have fired off against the .618 time and price square in AAPL. To really get moving however, we need to clear 525.58 by a decent margin and also trigger on the 30-minute chart!
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:25 pm
@eryba1: that sounds like Greek…translate please
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@JSmith: it was meant for Olivepetunia who asked me about Fibonacci Retracement levels. A form of TA based on levels to look for support of a stock.
Cody
February 27, 2014 – 1:46 pm
@eryba1: I haven’t gotten barely started on my $JDSU tranche buys. Love and hate to see it breaking out alraedy.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:46 pm
@eryba1: gottcha…good luck Olivepetunia
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:47 pm
@Cody: we dont always get a stock to fall to where we want to add back lower cost basis etc. I took what it gave us and lets see if it continues to breakout. its still early.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:49 pm
@JSmith: basically its looking for levels of support as a% of decline percentage from its most recent hi’s. One level was 525-526 it broke beloe, next level was 515-516 it hit what today and found support now that TA is looking for a close above 528 level to confirm higher levels to come.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:49 pm
@eryba1: what was your entry price on JDS?
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:49 pm
JDSU
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:49 pm
@JSmith: multiple tranches as it consolidated at 13.5 lowest was at 13.3
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:50 pm
@JSmith: it HASNT moved that much from my buys or avg.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:55 pm
@eryba1: nope, looks like it is moving above the 200 day
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 1:57 pm
@JSmith: I was referring to my cost basis. yes above 200 day avg now. Lets see volume and the close overall SLOW SLOW day avg wise
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 1:58 pm
@eryba1: yeah, i understood. I will have to join ya’ll
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 1:59 pm
@JSmith: you wrote :”good luck Olivepetunia” …was that meant for me? about what?
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 2:02 pm
learning Fibonacci Retracement levels…
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 2:17 pm
@eryba1: i was wrong mrkts like what yellen had to say…. Covered my shorts too luckily made a lil on tsla
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 2:17 pm
@jakef1111: that was a fast trade
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 2:18 pm
Its not easy to shirt when a stock does not show any signs or cracking
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 2:26 pm
@JSmith: OK; thanks, I think I’ll need it.
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 2:27 pm
@eryba1: well tsla had what looked like a blow off top yesterday and today isnt that bullish but the market is strong and id rather be long this market
rkumar
February 27, 2014 – 2:28 pm
aapl does cook have something up his sleeve tomorrow??
rkumar
February 27, 2014 – 2:28 pm
long aapl
Olivepetunia
February 27, 2014 – 2:28 pm
@rkumar: Maybe he has a new watch (up his sleeve)
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 2:28 pm
@rkumar: The short term buy triggers have fired off against the .618 time and price square in AAPL. To really get moving however, we need to clear 525.58 by a decent margin and also trigger on the 30-minute chart!
rkumar
February 27, 2014 – 2:30 pm
whats a good short here guys??
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 2:33 pm
@rkumar: this market is doing a good job of digesting the recent run up.
jakef1111
February 27, 2014 – 2:36 pm
@rkumar: if you have to short tsla to 215-230 id say but i covered id rather wait for the market to give me a direction plus i made a couple pts on the short im happy with it
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 2:46 pm
debating what to do, add more GDX or wait for Fb to come down to 67 range to buy more there.
msamuels2000
February 27, 2014 – 3:44 pm
Looking over my holdings for an opportunity and noticed JNPR has done a nice job of burning off the oversold. I only had a small position for the last run but maybe now…
msamuels2000
February 27, 2014 – 3:46 pm
and by oversold I meant overbought
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 3:48 pm
@msamuels2000: good combing of your positions, charts and RSI + price action. JNPR reports april 22nd nearly a month away. I would think the same thoughts U just typed out. I am just wondering if we need to take the last aspect to consider a market pullback. Since we never know if or WHEN one will come if U have none and wanted to add BEFORE a new leg higher starts JNPR does look like a good candidate for some sort of tranche buying.
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 3:50 pm
@msamuels2000: If U do add leave room if a market wide pullback occurs and we see it retest its 50 day moving avg at 25.3 range
msamuels2000
February 27, 2014 – 3:59 pm
I’m looking at Jul 25 calls at 3.30/3.40 as a way to catch the rise while capping my downside at 12-13%
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 4:32 pm
We closed the day up at all tim hi’s on a closing basis for the S&P. The volume was QUITE weak though all around. A few stocks showing nice moves such as FSLR, AAPL, YELP, Xone, JDSU,INVN, the 2 latter may be seeing a breakout. It would be nice to have the bond market with us and rising yields over 2.75% showing growth is seen / expected vs rates now at 2.64%. Gold was basically unch on the day as GDX and others consolidate further. Lets see how we close for the week ahead of any ISSUES the street and invetsors may be wary of over the weekend regarding Russia and the Ukraine. C U in the morning.
JSmith
February 27, 2014 – 4:37 pm
eryba1
February 27, 2014 – 4:39 pm
@JSmith: nice article and amazing looking stock chart and price action.
jahmon
February 27, 2014 – 6:45 pm
Report: Amazon eying music service, could be free for Prime subs • 5:38 PM Re/code reports Amazon (AMZN) is “engaged in more serious talks with big music labels” about launching a music streaming service that might be bundled with Prime. However, one source adds a deal isn’t close to be finished, since studios are balking at Amazon’s request for a major price discount relative to existing services. Amazon, no stranger to the realm of online music, has already said it’s mulling a $20-$40/year U.S. Prime subscription hike, a move that could make it easier to subsidize a music service. The e-commerce giant has already hiked Prime fees for U.K./German subs, while simultaneously bundling Lovefilm’s video streaming service. The launch of an ad-free Amazon music service t
jahmon
February 27, 2014 – 6:46 pm
Another reason to short P
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 8:36 am
Some interesting data as the market keeps rising- We are developing some froth once more- beware the ides of MARCH calls are here after this straight up move. This from a TA I read every morning: “we’ve developed a bit of froth in the markets. The ISEE Equity call/put ratio was a whopping 284%. Readings of more than 200% do not happen often, let alone ones that are near 300%. The last time we had a reading over 275% was December 2012.” The S&P corrected 5-6% after that hi reading. In addition volume on the way up has started to shrink badly, # of new hi’s as well all showing a very narrow market. Just watch your stocks, trim some of the GREAT moves we have seen and have capital on the side if / when we do see a pullback.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 8:38 am
A slow morning start today as has been the case the past week or so. the yield on the 10yr is up 1% so far to 2.67 Yield. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +8 1258 is up yet a again a good sign. Gold is basically unch. This is the last day of Trading for month of Feb.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 9:44 am
ddd up on its earnings so far 5% rise
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 9:51 am
talk about narrowing of uptrend. Naz up 3.4% YTD mostly a result of TSLA being up 67% YTD
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:00 am
@eryba1: GM – Been in meetings in FL. Any moves yesterday or today? I need to head to Tampa before heading back to the Northeast tonight. Let me know. Best, C
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:01 am
@chrismossey: yes stay in florida supposid BIG snowstorm coming monday, 85 vs 15 degrees today here in NYC.
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:02 am
I know – Gotta get back to the family.
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:02 am
Are we adding to Amazon yet? Move seems to be underway a bit.
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:03 am
Charts looks to have a double bottom and a nice bounce.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:04 am
@chrismossey: moves? Im am looking at window dressing today on month end moves. March begins with an overheated market. Amazon want to see it break above its range 363 or so, I just dont w\ant to be caught in a pullback, asI am 25% cash now and am happy with how my portfolio looks going into march.
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:05 am
yes, I agree. I did sell some lnkd. I am looking to lower amazon cost basis a bit. But I will be patient.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:05 am
@chrismossey: is basing 345-363 even apple has found some support at 516 now at 532
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:06 am
@chrismossey: yes just being patient myself dont want to rush things vs letting them come to me. I trimmed FB near 71 and am juist holding waiting to see if we get 67 or so or lower on it.
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:07 am
@eryba1: Of course I sold apple so you knew the move was coming. LOL
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:08 am
@chrismossey: yes but it came a few % below your sale
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:09 am
@chrismossey: oddly what I do feel I want to do is add to my GOLD.
chrismossey
February 28, 2014 – 10:09 am
@eryba1: I just added a little to gdxj
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:10 am
@chrismossey: again even on GDX I want to be patient, its end of month window dressing and the Ukraine issues dont go away, so over weekend rather have the extra cash
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:12 am
@chrismossey: otherwise GOOG, AAPL, FB,AMZN acting fine
lfnunnally
February 28, 2014 – 10:18 am
tset
lfnunnally
February 28, 2014 – 10:19 am
@erbya1: Thoughts on shorting TSLA?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:19 am
@chrismossey: good for U on the sale of LNKD after buying under 190
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:20 am
@lfnunnally: to short U need to see signs of weakness in its stock action. IMO there are NONE rt now.
joe.evicel
February 28, 2014 – 10:25 am
What do you guys think of $GDX here?
lfnunnally
February 28, 2014 – 10:26 am
@erbya1: ok thanks
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 10:35 am
it’s a weird day- the dollar has turned down, but gold is down too- the metal stks seem to know this is wrong and are holding pretty steady, tho they are starting to soften- HUI and XAU barely budging-
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:36 am
@joe.evicel: its been basing for a while at these levels in a range.
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 10:37 am
maybe it’s end of month shenanigans? who knows!
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:45 am
@Turtle108: could be, we have had a great run in MANY STOCKS, lets just be prepared for march as we are overbought. Ad for gold again basing sideways action so far.
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 10:53 am
@eryba1: if the dollar stays down, gold “should” climb-
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 10:55 am
@Turtle108: “should” the operative word. I added more GDX today down here
Olivepetunia
February 28, 2014 – 10:59 am
@eryba1: @Turtle108: Cody wrote in this week’s Q&A: “I think there might be one last manipulated trashing of gold prices and silver prices by the big banks and the metal exchanges,maybe over the next month, to try to get one more panic in the gold holders to puke out some physical gold into the markets.” Does this come into your thinking at all regarding present the action in gold? Patience?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:03 am
@Olivepetunia: sure- everything he says I take in along with price action, others I read etc etc. U dont have to buy all at once. Know one knows the exact action a stock or market will take thus never all in all out moves, a slow buy in or sell as things go higher action are safest if thats ones style. This market has gone straight up from S&P 1730 to 1866 with no real pullback. Instead we had sideways action for the most part until this small tick higher yesterday and today. I think we get a pullback as cody had talked about after this run up. Trimming now is the best action for me and adding a little gold.
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 11:03 am
@Olivepetunia: yes, of course, always waiting for the other shoe to drop and the bottom to fall out- but gold has shown great strength here- “Gold reached its October highs on Tuesday. It’s been holding near these highs above $1300 since then, which reflects good strength for the C rise. Gold is firm above its 75 day moving average at $1255, and it’s still poised to rise to the August highs near $1420. Silver is firm above $20.10 and it’s still pointing to higher highs. Gold shares are very strong with the XAU above 96.” Aden Sisters wrote that- they are excellent gold analysts-
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 11:06 am
@Olivepetunia: I also really am intrigued by the strength in the stks today while gold is down a little- that is usually a good sign- that the “smart” money is holding/buying the stks anyway- all that being said, Cody is one smart guy- and it has paid well to listen to him-
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:17 am
@Turtle108: if U read my earlier post from this morning U can see some TA speaking about rising market on less volume, less stocks making new hi’s even though S&p at new all time hi;s 1866- lets be careful a great run as we were buying fear gauge at 12 now 65.
Olivepetunia
February 28, 2014 – 11:23 am
@Turtle108: What are your thoughts on a good entry point for GDX or GDXJ – common or options (strik/exp)? I think you had written that you prefer GDXJ for the potential of buyouts if metal prices continue to climb.
jahmon
February 28, 2014 – 11:25 am
JNPR down over 2% today, might be a buying opp
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:29 am
@jahmon: wait to see if it sees closer to 25
Cody
February 28, 2014 – 11:34 am
Trader’s Deep Thought of the Day – Why aren’t you scared about a crash? Haven’t you been scared about a crash at various points over the last five years of bull market? Shouldn’t you still be scared? Let’s be careful out there right now. It’s been a long time since there was any semblance of a panic sell-off. I just can’t find any bears or shorts out there to speak of and that’s not bullish.
jakef1111
February 28, 2014 – 11:36 am
@Cody: based on that are thinkin of taking any actions? Ie buying vix?
jakef1111
February 28, 2014 – 11:37 am
@eryba1: sold crm this am looks like a buying opp if it gets closer to 60
Cody
February 28, 2014 – 11:37 am
@jakef1111: Haven’t made a new move or acted on that analysis, just sounding the warning bells out loud for now. As you know, I’ve been slowly but surely raising cash for the last few months.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:38 am
@Cody: Market internals all starting to point to what U R saying. The higher we go the less vol, the less new hi’s the less bears anywhere. Time for some caution a greta run from 1730 to 1866 S&P levels. Lets lock some profits in guys!
jakef1111
February 28, 2014 – 11:38 am
@Cody: yea the worlds greatest gameshow isnt even on too one sided
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:38 am
@jakef1111: see if it finds support at 50 day moving avg.
satishask
February 28, 2014 – 11:43 am
Wow only 5 banks will set the London price of GOLD twice a day and happening from 1919? Gold may hit 1600 in April? All in this link… http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/3-reasons-why-gold-rises-despite-price-fix-scandal-160400991.html
jakef1111
February 28, 2014 – 11:43 am
@eryba1: thats why i got out…. A lot!!! Of stocks are far from their 50 day bought a little nxpi back off the sideways action but nothing major… Mrkts still waffling just above resis now would be nice to see a test of the breakout? If you can call it that and see the action….. Waiting for the strong open and reversal day
jakef1111
February 28, 2014 – 11:45 am
@Cody: does this action bring up bad memories of peaceful times and a monday morning with limit down futures?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:46 am
@jakef1111: Truth be told people were looking for that reversal at S&P 1800 we fell to 1730 then resistance at 1800 expected. What was got was a RAMP higher. Just more evidence we need to see what the MARKET gives us vs what WE WANT it to do or EXPECT it to do. Its month end window dressing so I gather things if they DO OCCUR to downside will not start today, barring geopolitical news. If one was in CASH from 1800 to 1866 a lot of upside was missed out on in MANy stocks.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 11:51 am
@satishask: interesting article.Lets watch the price action if it confirms that article’s POV.
jakef1111
February 28, 2014 – 11:51 am
@eryba1: thats why im tryn to nibble on names i want here n there and leave some dry powder
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 11:59 am
@Olivepetunia: I do believe GDXJ will do the best in the long run- I have said here that I would split my money between GDX and GDXJ, and throw in some SLW- I like to have baskets and cover all bases- as far as an entry, at this point, I would hold my nose and buy a small amount- use Cody’s tranche method, with gold I would really add slowly-
nimsri
February 28, 2014 – 12:15 pm
Is INVN decline a buyingoppo?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 12:17 pm
@nimsri: down in an up market, give it some room, unless u have none then perhaps some, but today I say wait. Want to see march action begin.
nimsri
February 28, 2014 – 12:17 pm
Ok. Thankyou !
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 12:22 pm
@Olivepetunia: I am very distracted by a mom in the hospital- I would always have common as my base- but I do have Jan 2016 GDXJ calls-
jahmon
February 28, 2014 – 12:29 pm
For the Dow being up 114, my screen is all red…
JSmith
February 28, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@jahmon: same
Olivepetunia
February 28, 2014 – 12:33 pm
@jahmon: This happens to me from time to time (regularly?) – – but I also see opposite, e.g., the Dow showing a small change and my screen all green. We are not investing in the mainstream and although it is nice to be in lockstep with the broad market I don’t think that is a reasonable expectation.
jahmon
February 28, 2014 – 12:35 pm
Good feedback. I took a bit of some April $15 VIX calls…gulp…
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 12:37 pm
@jahmon: screen? ALL RED? no financials? industrials? oils? indices? this is a rally of the laggards vs the leaders. Oils, transports, finnacials and select tech MFST, CSCO, Yahoo
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 12:38 pm
@Olivepetunia: good wording there
jahmon
February 28, 2014 – 12:40 pm
My 401k has indices but I don’t follow them real time
Olivepetunia
February 28, 2014 – 1:38 pm
@Turtle108: Very long dated. What strike(s) do you have and, if you don’t mind my asking, when did you acquire them?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:00 pm
anyone heeding codys post from earlier today?
Olivepetunia
February 28, 2014 – 2:00 pm
@eryba1: Yes, closed out a couple of positions.
jahmon
February 28, 2014 – 2:03 pm
Yes, took a few profits
jahmon
February 28, 2014 – 2:03 pm
and opened a position in VIX
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 2:05 pm
@Olivepetunia: I need to look as after I bought them GDXJ had a forward split- I started buying gold stks and a few calls last June- and thru the summer- layered in heavier this fall and really have bought up until last week- I just looked and I have some 2016’s but also Jan 2015, GDXJ Jan 2015 18.000 call (GDXJ1150117C00018000), which are not in the green for me -but selling for .20- these contracts are for 25 shs, not 100 as per the split-
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:07 pm
@jahmon: I feel like doing the same. When the S&P rebounded to 1800 after the 1730 level was hit FEB 3rd many said a RETEST will come weeks later. Lets just shore up tight stops or trimming and take profits and have cash ready for any possible retest. That would be inline with codys post today no bears giddiness all around and possible retest. Lets just be on the lookout for a pullback and if when it develops what it looks like, whats its doing to stocks to see what it means we should do.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:11 pm
@jahmon: Ok following your lead, buying some protection in addition to cash adding VXX here. Lets see if it gains as markets fall if Cody is rt and from what I feel March could see a pullback.
kirank
February 28, 2014 – 2:12 pm
Anybody know why Apple is down today? I thought the apple TV news was good? wasn’t it?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:13 pm
@kirank: the stock has been acting very weak on good overall tech up days.
doug.sekula
February 28, 2014 – 2:16 pm
Bought a first tranche of INVN.
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 2:18 pm
@Olivepetunia: GDXJ Jan 2015 36.000 call (GDXJ150117C00036000)
nmantle
February 28, 2014 – 2:25 pm
Hello eryba1: I’m very much a novice when it comes to hedging but do want to possibly hedge a bit. Is there an easy way to play the VIX for a hedge? Thank you!
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:27 pm
@nmantle: easy? nothing here is easy. U either lighten up on your positions a bit or more and take profits to use on next pullback if / when it comes or an an example buy the VXX which rises as the VIX does if the markets pullback.
nmantle
February 28, 2014 – 2:29 pm
VXX – Awesome! That actually seems pretty easy, I’ll look into it a tad more ~ Thanks
indiasilver
February 28, 2014 – 2:33 pm
Is everyone staying pat on XONE? My cost basis is 51.6, so I’m already down quite a bit, but I had only bought my first tranche, so not a big percent of my portfolio. Thoughts on this one?
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:41 pm
@indiasilver: I am staying pat I want in on SSYS myself under 120. Otherwise bought VXX today vs other trims market losing ground now was + 120 dow and now + 74 Naz is red for the day already reflecting the weakness in most of the tech leaders of the run up until today.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 2:43 pm
@indiasilver: give it some room, lets see where this market wants to go in March after the almost straight up move from S&P 1730 on Feb 3rd to 1868 today.
lfnunnally
February 28, 2014 – 2:51 pm
I trimmed today, have 1/2 cash, and bought some vxx
Cody
February 28, 2014 – 2:51 pm
http://tradingwithcody.com/2014/02/28/trade-alert-buying-some-index-puts-and-two-tranche-buys-too/
Cody
February 28, 2014 – 2:51 pm
I’m buying some IWM and SPY puts with strike prices just slightly out of the money, just below where each is currently trading, dated out into April and May. Just some protection as I think complacency and sentiment are too extreme and it’s time to buy some insurance. On the other hand, I never read very much into any single day’s action in any single stock, including today with $INVN. I’m still building up a long position in that one anyway, so I’ll be scaling into more on weakness, like today and I’m buying a second tranche of both INVN and JDSU common stock.
rkumar
February 28, 2014 – 3:02 pm
biotechs crashing guys
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 3:05 pm
adding to GDXJ here. FWIW.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@jakef1111: Was it you who wanted to see a blowoff top? could we have just had one? Now tech and biotech getting hit first = winners losing % in clips. Lets see the final 50 min. And TURTLE lets see if GOLD detaches itself from the dow and gets into the green ahead of the weekend Ukraine and all.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 3:09 pm
@jahmon: VIX idea already paying off. Thank U. Its WAY too early but lesson here- U can see and FEEL the market changing course and direction now, people scrambling to protect gains as we go red on the DOW and S&P. Market character is changing the close will speak volumes literally and figuratively.
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 3:15 pm
also following Cody into more INVN
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 3:21 pm
@Turtle108: TURTLE lets see if GOLD detaches itself from the dow and gets into the green ahead of the weekend Ukraine and all.
ebdavids
February 28, 2014 – 3:29 pm
@Turtle108: @Olivepetunia: (sorry if this is a repeat): Thanks for your buy info, Olive! Turtle, ultimately how far out did you go –1/5 or 1/16?
ebdavids
February 28, 2014 – 3:35 pm
I meat 1/15 or 1/16…
ebdavids
February 28, 2014 – 3:35 pm
meant (!)
msamuels2000
February 28, 2014 – 3:38 pm
VIX calls and IWM puts engaged – trimmed CREE, SNDK and FSLR to free up some more walkin around money…
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 4:46 pm
Now THAT was a wild DAY. All but the NAZ closed in the green as it was whipsaw action dow was + 120 then sank into the red down about 50. Not many know the reason why yet but markets don’t usually act this way. Was it a change of character in this market? was this signs of itchy trigger fingers to sell and take profits? Was it Ukraine and The news that Russian troops have entered Ukraine to safeguard its ports on the Black Sea. ? Markets act this way at tops and at times of character change. Lets see what occurs this weekend if the drop was as a result of that news? Biotech took the brunt of the selling the IBB etf fell nearly 3% on HEAVY volume it was a leader in this market. Obama is speaking today at 4:45 on Ukraine tensions. Lets see what unfolds.
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 4:47 pm
IBB= Biotech ETF
eryba1
February 28, 2014 – 5:12 pm
The tensions over Ukraine and the news of Russian troops entering the ports (cnbc reports 2,000 troops so far) has us fortunate for now to have sold and raised some cash, have some gold and maybe even some hedges. You can always buy back but to be all in at times of international tensions going into a weekend as markets are at all time hi’s is not a comforting thought IMO.This will be a tension filled news weekend. Obama just spoke about this Crisis. We wont know how markets react to any news until sunday night when Asia reopens for trading and USA futures begin to trade and again when Our markets open for trading Monday. GN
Turtle108
February 28, 2014 – 6:00 pm
@ebdavids: I bought both- Jan2015 and Jan2016
jakef1111
March 1, 2014 – 1:57 am
@eryba1: i wouldnt say wanted a blow off top more like would be looking for that to change my exposure to more hedging and downside protection… Ive been getting stopped out and or too nervous to short…i think this could be a headfake based on geopolitical news and the fact that the spx looks like it has an invetered ShS but i will let the market action decide my next moves
jakef1111
March 1, 2014 – 2:02 am
Nvm SHS is supposedly a trend reversal? I dunno any TA experts out there?
aokeefe00
March 1, 2014 – 6:24 pm
Cody you should become a real person, it’s about time
eryba1
March 2, 2014 – 8:38 am
Zuckerberg Dines With Phone Frenemies Fretting Over Profits – Call it a dinner between frenemies. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-25/zuckerberg-dines-with-phone-frenemies-fretting-over-profit-drop.html
jakef1111
March 2, 2014 – 10:45 am
@eryba1: things r getting worse out in Ukraine
jakef1111
March 2, 2014 – 10:47 am
eryba1
March 2, 2014 – 12:57 pm
Doing my Tax prep work today. Look at this indicator & the disparity between insider buying vs. selling- Lots of sellers in stocks that have g]had great bounces after corretcions like LNKD and stocks hititng all time hi’s like a FB. http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html.
eryba1
March 2, 2014 – 1:08 pm
@jakef1111: Things are VERY tense to say the least in Ukraine. Venezuela – http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/venezuela-s-growing-middle-class-revolt-1.2555786 , Israel- http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/03/02/israel-ultra-orthodox-protest-jerusalem/5944693/ , China train station attack- http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/knife-wielding-men-attack-sw-china-train-station-22730405
doug.sekula
March 2, 2014 – 1:17 pm
Wonder if this is going to be the start of a major pullback. Thinking of cutting off 50% in each position. Hedge with cash. Have some VIX. Could buy more at these levels and lower my cost basis some. Our stocks have soared, volitility low. Also thinking I missed the GDX as a hedge boat??? shoulda bought at 20 but didnt.
eryba1
March 2, 2014 – 1:20 pm
@doug.sekula: we are all wondering the same thing. At times as U just said accounts at new hi’s to trim some NEVER hurts, helps the mind relax think more clearly and have the flexibility to scan the investment field and what to do. Do we really think the S&P at 1859 new all time hi on a closing basis will just SOAR from here? We dont know for sure what tom brings in gold the markets etc from this 1st and foremost european crisis. Lets watch and see. Thus always prudent to trim as Cody and otheres stressing to do fri ahead of the weekend especially with Ukraine issues staring us head on.
eryba1
March 2, 2014 – 1:27 pm
@doug.sekula: Gold has risen about 10% YTD and has for the most part moved higher with the markets. Thinking about gold vs stocks TURTLE this is for U, Gold really broken away from stocks starting at the correction in Mid Jan 2014. Stocks corrected 10-30% the averages about 5-7% yet Gold has risen 10% while the S&p is practically UNCH. The GDX is up 22% YTD and as the gld it has broken away from stocks to the upside during the Han 2014 correction. Lets see what this Ukraine situation results in regards to the markets globally and Gold starting tonight and this week.
doug.sekula
March 2, 2014 – 1:43 pm
@eryba1: Thanks.
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 12:26 am
Just a thought maybe im wrong but the us send troops where it pleases for whatever it believes to be just…. Not saying russia is just but if baja cali was in a revoltuion lets say the us wouldnt send troops there? Iknow the media we see on tv s
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 12:27 am
Spins things how hey want i just wonder if we were russia would we not try n defend the american people in ukraine? Anyways just a thought nothing to do with revo investing
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 7:25 am
Turtle: saw my post from yesterday? Gold breakaway occurred during this years jan stocks correction and today may pull away even further breaking the cord between mirroring the moves of the averages? At lease for now perhaps.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 7:27 am
@eryba1: g’morning- just am reading your psot. I didn
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 7:29 am
@eryba1: woops- sorry, it’s a bit early here- I am reading your post. I didn’t think to check in over the weekend. This is what we have been waiting to see. In 2008 the gold stks collapsed with the mkt- I think we will see the opposite now and am positioned for that.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 7:32 am
@Turtle108: yes mid jan gold broke away and today further removing umbilical cord from mirroring markets moves. Lets see how the day unfolds.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 7:33 am
Russian markets down 14% today, Germany down 3% so far.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 7:35 am
@eryba1: what time zone are you in? are you in NYC? wow on the Russian Mkt – was an excellent call you and Cody made last week-I did not hedge so to speak, shoulda woulda bought some VXX- we’ll see how gold works .
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:17 am
@Turtle108: yes east coast time here. Hedge- the was a last min thing on an idea by Johman I believe it was and cody then followed as well,. However just plan selling anytime last week was a good time to take some off as out stocks were hitting new all time hi’s. Lets see how this week plays out starting with today.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 8:19 am
@eryba1: I do have gold in every acc’t I manage- that is my hedge. more than a hedge, it’s my position-
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 8:37 am
just posted this one Scutify- If you’re looking to buy physical $GOLD and $SILVER , $CEF, Central Fund of Cnd., still selling at a 4.3% discount to NAV, as of the close on Fri. Where else can you buy $GOLD $SILVER for less than the going price. $GTU also closed at 4.5% under NAV. These discounts probably won’t last long-
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:50 am
@Turtle108: The ability to buy gold at fridays close? I think one would need that in WRITING as todays pre market open may affect that.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 8:52 am
@eryba1: LOL! these stks usually sell at a premium to the price of gold/silver- I would think this morning you might be able to hurry up and buy some and do alright- just thinking of those who have none, might be a good way to start.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:52 am
7:08 am Stratasys beats by $0.01, beats on revs; reaffirms FY14 EPS guidance, revs guidance
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:54 am
Apple estimates, target increased at Canaccord MAR 03, 2014 | 7:44 AM EST AAPL estimates were raised through 2015, Canaccord Genuity said. Company should see higher iPad and iPhone sales. Buy rating and new $600 price target.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:54 am
3D Systems numbers raised at Credit Suisse MAR 03, 2014 | 8:09 AM EST Shares of DDD now seen reaching $79, according to Credit Suisse. Company is seeing better consumer, metals and materials demand. Neutral rating.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:54 am
Tesla estimates, target boosted at JP Morgan MAR 03, 2014 | 7:21 AM EST Shares of TSLA now seen reaching $164, according to JP Morgan. Estimates also upped, as Gigafactory should help cut battery costs. Neutral rating.
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 8:55 am
@eryba1: buying early? Or waiting
Cody
March 3, 2014 – 8:55 am
I’m waiting.
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 8:58 am
@Cody: buying more downside protection or staying “put” there too
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:00 am
@jakef1111: watching to see what happens. giving this reaction and the markets some room.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:01 am
Apple’s New CarPlay System Will Turn Tens Of Millions Of Cars Into iPhone Accessories- http://techcrunch.com/2014/03/03/apples-new-carplay-system-will-turn-tens-of-millions-of-cars-into-iphone-accessories/?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000591
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:14 am
znga up in pre market- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/zynga-plans-march-soft-launch-140000531.html
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:26 am
lots of questions this AM. IS this weak open one to be bought? answer is the reason for the decline if its a valid concern = Ukraine resolved? Will I get a better chance to buy some stocks I always wanted at these discounted prices? Answer U can always buy a tranche if U have none but at this point in this SAGA / DRAMA in Europe there is no firm resolution so we could see better = lower prices later today or this week. This friday we have the Gov Monthly Jobs # and we have no clue as to the depth of this pullback yet and news igniting it so how can me know, its just too early to tell. Baltic dry index was up again today thats 12+ days up in a row after its 40% decline. Lets see how the day unfolds. This market is still overbought.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 9:35 am
Interesting that energy stocks are down today. I own OIH and XOP. With a crisis, energy should be up, seasonality is in its favor. This is a place to buy weakness in tranches.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:35 am
sndk and AAPL in the green so far
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:36 am
@chrismossey: select energy up though APC APA NBL COP XLE
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 9:36 am
@Cody: loving the spy puts bought at the close on friday. Also bought TZA to hedge out some of our small caps.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 9:38 am
@chrismossey: mop’s doing ok here too, I consider them part of my energy pf-
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 9:38 am
whoops- MLP’s
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 9:39 am
@Turtle108: I was about to ask what a mop was, other than the one we traditionally know.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 9:40 am
@chrismossey: LOL. auto correct got me. Mops may do well today too tho, cleaning up after traders hit the floor.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 9:48 am
invn in the green now, again stock picking select names are up today so far in this very long trading day and week ahead.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 9:48 am
INVN just went positive. Spent some time learning a great deal about this company over the weekend. Really excited about the prospects of this company. They are at the heart of all things mobile.
msamuels2000
March 3, 2014 – 9:49 am
Did some more trimming – about 1/3 cash now. Only full positions I have remaining are AMZN GOOG AAPL BIDU.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 9:50 am
GDXJ rocking today. Glad to have split my position across this and gdx.
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 9:52 am
@chrismossey:
like hearing you say that! It’s a bucking bronco to ride, but I do believe it will outperform in the long run-
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 9:53 am
Bought some fb at the open aapl is being a leader for once and not to the downside interested to see when a real product comes out
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 10:05 am
U guys think putin bought some puts in the russian market? Down 14% ouch
Jeffhok1970
March 3, 2014 – 10:06 am
initiated an INVN position at $20.
rkumar
March 3, 2014 – 10:19 am
watch ibb–if it breaks nazz will break
lfnunnally
March 3, 2014 – 10:22 am
@erbya1: Just wondering if you would consider adding more VXX here? I added at 43.00.
msamuels2000
March 3, 2014 – 10:38 am
@lfnunnally: bought some USO calls in case middle east starts some shenanigans now that our eye is off the ball there
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 10:43 am
Uranium stks bucking the trend here- URZ CCJ – is there anything more hated?
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 10:52 am
$URZ $CCJ $URA $DNN
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 11:18 am
@Turtle108: aapl got pretty hated saw an article saying BBry was a better buy gotta find it… Picked up a little crm here
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 11:21 am
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/02/blackberry-ltd-bbry-stock-vs-apple-inc-aapl/
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 12:05 pm
@lfnunnally: I added on friday at 43 as well and I am not adding more, NOT chasing. I dont like the news flow, russia demanding 2 ukranian warships to be surrendered. Not good, I know buffet and mnay now saying a buying opportunity, but from where? what levels?
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 12:09 pm
I want to buy JDSU, INVN, FB BIG TIME, amzn, goog but not rushing into it. Chart LOOKS like QQQ wants to see 87.75 1st at a minimum IMO. Russia market fell 12% and this new demand for warship surrender escalates things IMO. I dont need to wake up to a war tomorrow with shots fired. I am being patient.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 12:34 pm
Just bought a nice big tranche of JDSU to go along with that nice big tranche of INVN I bought yesterday. Lol.
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 12:55 pm
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101460690 i was kind of saying this last night to myself on here haha if we went into canada to ” protect” our people or mexico who would tell us to get out? We went into iraq on our own…. Anyways this is about investing not political events
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:03 pm
@jakef1111: our people? I see what U R saying but Crimea belongs to the Ukraine. The USA may have a port or harbor in Puerto Rico but we dont expect it to seize it. We dont expect Ukraine to surrender 2 of its war SHips because Russia said to do so which was reported today. All this just shows we dont know where this is going, where the bottom is and when its safer to invest. This decline looks like a good buying opportunity now and it may be, However I dont want to wake up tom and see another 200+ decline off of more tension in Europe. Its like trying to buy a stock in regards to this market U want to know when it has found some support. Everyone is saying BUY this early as if they KNOW what Russia is going to do.
Golfcar101
March 3, 2014 – 1:08 pm
@eryba1: agree with all your points but seems to be just an excuse to sell how many stocks of us companies even with europe exposure are really going to take a hit to there bottom line
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:09 pm
We have had a GREAT run yes this looks like a buying opportunity, just stay safe, keep powder dry and know this can get worse. I want to buy back my FB 67 looks promising but how can I game war games and tensions. I may see strength in FB at 66.6 its just seems to simple to say its all over priced in nothing worse will occur and I want to add in MANy stocks.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 1:09 pm
If FB hits 67 again I’m adding some back.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:10 pm
@Golfcar101: bottom line- 100% correct doesnt impact that, However stocks are the MOST liquid asset class. Fear from global tensions has people fearing more tensions and global issues and having them sell 1st and ask questions later.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:13 pm
Look at this link / article. Russia gives Ukraine war ships until 10pm EST to surrender or face consequences- http://world.time.com/2014/03/03/russia-demands-immediate-surrender-of-ukraine-warships/?xid=rss-topstories&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+time%2Ftopstories+%28TIME%3A+Top+Stories%29
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 1:17 pm
You can also sell your hedges along the way and buy the most beat up stocks in our/Cody’s list and diversify into stocks we don’t have in our/Cody’s list but have been beat up the worst. This is what I have been doing and it’s been working.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:17 pm
I have my positions and would love to buy at these lower $$ for many stocks. It just seems to be an escalating matter and with deadlines and threats to surrender or face being attacked I will wait a little while longer.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 1:20 pm
I sold some TVIX today and bought that tranche of JDSU with it. Just trading. Still have some and waiting to do it again.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:21 pm
@doug.sekula: yes U R right. I can do that. I was trimming all last week and am ready to add to many stocks I trimmed but I want to see this out a bit longer. If I miss THE bottom and nothing else escalates in the Ukraine thats fine as long as I know we wont see war there and panic here. I am willing to miss the 1-2% bottom I didnt catch and know my buys are after this market has settled down and we know the tensions in Europe that started this are over. I dont want a bloomberg alert tonight at 10pm saying russia fired on a ukraine ship as it didnt surrender and fighting has broken out.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 1:23 pm
@eryba1: Risk everywhere!?!?!? FB does look good here tho.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 1:27 pm
@doug.sekula: sure FB looks good for now. Its not like I have NO stock I have plenty, if U had none I would be surely buying today. Many names are looking attractive. I’m just going to exercise some patience here.
rkumar
March 3, 2014 – 2:01 pm
any one looking to buy a soxx stock??
jahmon
March 3, 2014 – 2:04 pm
At what point do you start trimming hedges? Things could go sideways or things could resolve and hedge gains could evaporate pretty quickly…
flyfishin
March 3, 2014 – 2:06 pm
ZNGA went positive seems like a good sign for this basket
nimsri
March 3, 2014 – 2:08 pm
@eryba1 Is Cody still planning to short NQ at some point?
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:10 pm
@jahmon: when? great question- when U start asking if it can all get away from U, as if U were all in or too much in one position TRIM, take some off lock some in.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:12 pm
@jahmon: Many people say MAY U ONLY lose on your hedges = may your longs work so much better than the hedges. Today hedges working, gold, AAPL, INCN, CIEN SNDK
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:12 pm
ZNGA as well
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:22 pm
@nimsri: I dont know.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 2:31 pm
@jahmon: I sold some TVIX +12% and bought some JDSU -3% today. Even trade amount. First tranche of JDSU.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 2:31 pm
Sold some hedge to go long
rzepeda
March 3, 2014 – 2:33 pm
If you had to choose..INVN or JDSU?
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:35 pm
@rzepeda: 50% each why choose, U have none of each? more of one? split the investment. U obviously like both.
rzepeda
March 3, 2014 – 2:45 pm
@eryba1: true, good point.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:50 pm
@jahmon: FWIW- I am trimming SOME of my hedge I bought on friday. Gold is starting top act like a hedge as well and I like that for a longer term play vs the shorter term hedge. WIll add some CIEN, JDSU, INVn, FB,GOOG,AMZN here as well
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:50 pm
gold starting TO act like a hedge
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 2:52 pm
Auto sales: good. Chicago PMI: good. Sentiment: good. Personal Income: good. Europe’s PMI: good. Ukraine: bad.
doug.sekula
March 3, 2014 – 2:56 pm
@rzepeda: Good question for Cody. INVN or JDSU. A little more analysis would be cool. Just scaling into Cody’s pics playing trying to find the “bottom” game. Hahaha and with him buying two tranches so far I’m hoping for something good like the ones we already had/have. Thanks TWC!!! Just having fun playing the game.
indiasilver
March 3, 2014 – 3:13 pm
Boy, XONE just continues to deteriorate. @eryba1, do you still have this as part of your basket? I’ve got a full tranche, but still only about 3% of my portfolio, so not sweating it. Just wondering if this one will ever turn around and start moving up…
msamuels2000
March 3, 2014 – 3:24 pm
@eryba1: I don’t think traders are going to want to be in long positions overnight. Let’s see what the last 30 minutes looks like
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:26 pm
@indiasilver: No I do not own Xone. The day DDD reported and fell 25% and the 3D stocks got clobbered My mental sell limits were hit and I had to sell it.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:27 pm
@eryba1: didn’t you say you are going to be patient. Did I read you as just saying your are adding to jdsu, fb, cien, invn, goog, amzn here?
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:34 pm
@chrismossey: patient yes, still hedges, and gold as 2nd hedge buying 1/8 to 1/2 tranches in some names
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:38 pm
@eryba1: You are considering those stocks hedges?
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:40 pm
Greed/Fear index at 54
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:42 pm
@chrismossey: no, I still have my hedges in gold and the VXX adding small amounts to a few stocks nothing more.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:44 pm
got it. On the Acela to nyc, might have misunderstood your post.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:45 pm
200 point down day yet a few names strong today SNDK INVN ZNGA AAPL YELP GDX
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:49 pm
loving yelp. CMG has been solid. INVN is the surprise. I was worried about this one. I added to, cmg, tza, jdsu, aapl, gdx, gdxj, fb, cien , amzn, xop today.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:50 pm
@chrismossey: lots of buying!!
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:54 pm
I was 75% in cash, I nibbled. Spent no more than 5k on each tranche and used some deep in the money calls. The hedges, gold miners and tza I was light on. If this thing escalates I needed fuller positions.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:54 pm
I was light on ciena and fb and amazon as well.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@chrismossey: 75% cash!! wow going on another vacation?
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:54 pm
No – I am back
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:54 pm
This is really my first trading day back.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:55 pm
almost added to fslr but my gain from last week is too nice.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 3:57 pm
@chrismossey: at this point let this Ukraine drama play out, no one knows how it will resolve itself. It can be just chest pumping from Russia or not. Rt after it hosted THE WORLD at the olympics and now the para olympics are there it does this.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 3:59 pm
@eryba1: no sense at all. I am struggling to see why it matters to us other than we signed an agreement to guard the Ukraine with England a dozen years ago
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 4:03 pm
Well the day is in the books and feels like it was a victory even though the portfolio is down .06 percent or so. I will take it. I was thinking the worst. Got a few panic price point buys early and then added to the hedges as they backed off from their highs. For those that want some fun GDXJ is a roller coaster.
msamuels2000
March 3, 2014 – 4:09 pm
@eryba1: My fear is the contagion…with our attention on Ukraine what will Iran/Syria do in the Middle east and don’t forget China’s aggressive moves toward Japan
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 4:11 pm
@msamuels2000: there are always global issues, tensions. That is a given, Japan nuclear disaster 2 years ago was it, Tsunami, arab spring in multiple countries etc
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 4:11 pm
@chrismossey: down .06 on a down S&P .74% is pretty good! as U were hedges and mostly cash.
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 4:15 pm
@eryba1: On Friday you had mentioned you would like to add gold but were holding still. Thank you for the comment I added there and it helped a great deal.
Olivepetunia
March 3, 2014 – 4:17 pm
@chrismossey: If you think GDX is a roller coaster, try NUGT
chrismossey
March 3, 2014 – 4:17 pm
@Olivepetunia: gdxj – sorry.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 4:18 pm
@chrismossey: Friday I did add 1/2 a tranche of gold GDX
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 4:20 pm
@chrismossey: gold acted as a hedge all day but gave some of its gains back by the end of the day GDX was 3% higher midday ended up 1.6%
msamuels2000
March 3, 2014 – 4:21 pm
@eryba1: right but to your point – the market may be looking for a reason(s) to sell off after the recent run. I’m staying very agile for the next 30 days
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 4:22 pm
@msamuels2000: yes today was a perfect example and as always we need to monitor things. We did have strong economic data from EU and USA so that was a positive sign as well.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 4:23 pm
@msamuels2000: there are always negatives, ALWAYS. Just need to understand the markets where THEY want to head vs what WE feel are uncertain or BAD scenarios. We can’t fight the market and stay liquid at the same time. We always need to stay agile, aware, respect the trends etc
Olivepetunia
March 3, 2014 – 4:32 pm
@chrismossey: I haven’t followed GDXJ at all; is it as much of a roller coaster as NUGT?
Turtle108
March 3, 2014 – 4:42 pm
LOL everyone- I found a new one, it’s 3x’s NUGT, JNUG- and, it has options. olive petunia, NUGT is a 3x’s ETf, so way more volatile than GDXJ-
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 5:49 pm
@eryba1: i like ur puerto rico comparison on that note if a rebel party was there not liking the gov and had violent protests and anyone of us had family there and the US sent soldiers there to uphold peace would it be necessary for the UN and russia to condemn those actions within a weekend? If russia tries to occupy for the sake of taking over do they even need to send military? Im just not sure whos jumping the gun the US UN with sanctions or russia sending troops…. And if they did so with the intent to expand borders is it critical within hours to condemn it? If im russia id be pretty pissed too and wonder whats makes the usas actions righteous and ours selfish… Just as conversation…
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 5:51 pm
On the other side i can see how this could spiral out of control with russia wanting to flex their muscles vs countries that want to flex muscles against them…. This could spiral out of control… But i think there will be peaceful resolution… Soon
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 5:52 pm
@jakef1111: rebel? U mean change of political regime there? Crimea is still part of the Ukraine not russia. Russia has no right to send that QTY of soldiers, battle ships, tanks etc. There were not issues threatening any russian speaking population of Crimea.
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 5:53 pm
Yea sorry rebels politicians same difference
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 6:00 pm
@eryba1: im not there to know but someone did request aide right? And maybe i dnt have all the facts just dnt like the approach… Syria and Egypt were /are a mess too i think Obama wanted to send aide at one point there? Just wish things wouldve played out more before condemning and sanctions… I dunno
jakef1111
March 3, 2014 – 6:13 pm
@eryba1: i have to read more about it seems like Putin does enjoy sme land grabbing
Olivepetunia
March 3, 2014 – 6:33 pm
@Turtle108: Could be interesting, but NUGT has weekly expirations – JNUG only monthly.
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:41 pm
@jakef1111: for all we know the oligarchs of Russia were asked to contribute huge sums of money for the Olympics by Putin. Maybe they asked him how they could make that $$ back fast. So to short their own markets and stocks let Putin send in guards take the huge pr
eryba1
March 3, 2014 – 8:45 pm
Huge short profits as their markets crashed 14% and then they go long their own stocks and market average knowing Putin will withdraw or bk down soon enough. This way making billions on the short and long side rt after the Olympics to recoup their money and then some. It’s quite genius no blood shed no pain no harm no foul and huge amounts of money made in a weeks time tens of billions made by their friend Putin to repay his friends. Let’s see how and when this Ukraine story unfolds / unwinds.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 7:30 am
Adding to my post from last night: As if ON CUE: Putin ENDS military exercise JUST LIKE THAT. No give Surrender Ukraine naval ships ultimatum all thats forgotten. Russia stock market up 6-7% today. Germany was down 3.4% yesterday today up 2.4% and our futures responding positively as well. Lets see how we open and act in the first hour.
JohnnyT
March 4, 2014 – 7:34 am
What has changed? Nothing, except that the unpredictable Putin saying he wont go into Ukraine “yet.”
notlaw72
March 4, 2014 – 7:44 am
with this change would you trim GDX or wait and see what unfolds later in the day/ week?
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 8:45 am
@notlaw72: I believe Gold is in a new uptrend so at this point at these levels I will not be trimming.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 8:47 am
@JohnnyT: Secretary of state John Kerry is now in the Ukraine. Putin calls off his Military, Russian stocks recover. Short lived Fear over? Time will tell.
Golfcar101
March 4, 2014 – 9:03 am
don`t think he called it off from kerry being there or obama world has no fear of obama
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 9:03 am
@Golfcar101: correct jjust the timing of it.
JSmith
March 4, 2014 – 9:05 am
Apple Inc said Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer would retire at the end of September.
JSmith
March 4, 2014 – 9:06 am
Sure seems like the market doesn’t want to go down…yet. Quick to bounce back. Time will tell.
Benb
March 4, 2014 – 9:22 am
Let the good times roll I say.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 9:45 am
FB buys TITAN AEROSPACE for 60M- FB wants these planes and tech to beam internet to people in locations / countries that have non in many areas, with unreliable electricity or other.
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 9:47 am
@eryba1: that was quick- I just posted this:
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 9:47 am
$FB is in talks to buy a drone co.called Titan Aerospace for $60 million.The New Mexico-based start-up is developing autonomous solar-powered aircraft that can stay aloft for up to 5 years at near-orbital heights, which could make them ideal for beaming internet access to remote areas.Zuckerberg is focused on reaching the 2/3’s of humankind who are not yet online.What if $FB can bypass the carriers and offer mobile data services to developing mkts. with a futuristic fleet of solar powered drones
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 9:55 am
@eryba1: yea ill tell you what i can never be ruler anywhere now… Things start going against my trades im sending my whole army into my neighbor nation… Once i cover send em back go long seems way to easy… Glad i bought some crm and fb but still seems way too easy….cant fight it tho just ride the wave i guess
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 9:56 am
@jakef1111: Ur investments need to go with the trend vs against.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 9:57 am
ZNGA is another monster stock!!! Cien reports tonight
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 9:57 am
GDX-GDXJ holding up fairly well considering the price of gold
Golfcar101
March 4, 2014 – 9:59 am
thought cien was march 6
jahmon
March 4, 2014 – 10:06 am
How quickly the hedges turn to losses
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:07 am
@jahmon: as fast as they emerged and now are retreating.
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 10:09 am
those of you who bought hedges, what do you do now- sell? hold? sell partial?
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:10 am
@Turtle108: yesterday I sold 1/2 and today the other 1/2
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 10:12 am
@eryba1: nice, good move- I have never really bought too many- have tried with SDS, VXX, but the timing is so difficult I sort of gave up-
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:14 am
@Turtle108: I know it all too well. Some people are good at certain things and some arent. I have never been astute when it came to shorting thus prefer to trim raise cash and see what develops. This time it was helpful albeit very short term is how it looks right now.
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 10:17 am
@jahmon: sold my hedges yesterday… Kinda felt lucky
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 10:18 am
@eryba1: ditto all you said- it’s a good education watching you, Cody and others-
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 10:18 am
@eryba1: in a weak market yesterday aapl looked poised to lead now its up less then the nazz n qqq
lfnunnally
March 4, 2014 – 10:20 am
I believe CIEN reports Thurs, Mar 6 am
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:23 am
@lfnunnally: U R correct Thur before the open.
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 10:34 am
@eryba1: have you looked at SIMO ? looks interesting and it pays a nice divie-
aaleexaandeer
March 4, 2014 – 10:36 am
Is anybody buying today? What about CIEN buy before earnings? Is a earnings beat expected?
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:37 am
@Turtle108: No never have. Looking at its chart now roller coaster but all in a rt angled way heading higher.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:37 am
@aaleexaandeer: I added to a few things today. FB, INVN, JDSU
aaleexaandeer
March 4, 2014 – 10:47 am
@eryba1: Thank you! I was looking at INVN and JDSU the past weeks since Codys buy alert. Do you currently own CIEN?
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:48 am
@aaleexaandeer: yes I have cien in my portfolio
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 10:59 am
@aaleexaandeer: CIEN has been acting weak as of late and with earnings in 2 days I think people want to see their #’s before its next true direction.
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 11:13 am
@eryba1: so we just ride the wave here if we bought yesterday huh
jahmon
March 4, 2014 – 11:13 am
@turtle108 I bought my first tranche of SIMO yesterday. Robertmarcin has been scutifying about it…and actually just posted about it again on Scutify
Jeffhok1970
March 4, 2014 – 11:27 am
trimming opportunity on ZNGA?
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 11:27 am
@jahmon: yes, that’s where I read about it too- it sounds interesting –
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 11:29 am
@jahmon: whats that co about
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 11:50 am
$XAU turning green-
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 11:56 am
@jakef1111: What are your other options? want to trim if U bot yesterdays 200+ downside sure then take some profits. What other choices would U like to explore?
nimsri
March 4, 2014 – 12:03 pm
@jakef1111 It is a chip company and they deal with Samsung on the supply side. We already own motion side of business with INVN,TQNT so reluctant to add a another tech company related to mobile.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@Jeffhok1970: I think so
jahmon
March 4, 2014 – 12:28 pm
Mobile semiconductor company
nrmeshram
March 4, 2014 – 12:44 pm
@eryba1 : market is again breaking out. what do you think the upside target on the S&P would be ?
Cody
March 4, 2014 – 12:44 pm
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 12:46 pm
@nrmeshram: no targets in mind for me. We are buying individual stocks here and they act VERY differently than the averages even in yesterdays 250 pt decline at one point a few stocks were up or near unch. To me stock picking is more important. We obviously watch the averages but to place a target on them is not something that important if you think about it.
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 1:43 pm
I bought back nxpi thing looks good
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 1:44 pm
I bought it 1.50 ago tho
aaleexaandeer
March 4, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@eryba1: Thanks for the reply! Best regards from Carnaval in Rio de Janeiro! I read Eastcoast weather is pretty cold again!
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 1:50 pm
@aaleexaandeer: NP- Cold yes Looks like the LAST of it finally back to A bit warmer weather. U have World cup in what 99 days??
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 1:55 pm
Anyone selling here?
aaleexaandeer
March 4, 2014 – 2:03 pm
@eryba1: Yes 99 days left for the world cup! Unfortunately my time of 6 months living in Copacabana is over in April, thereafter back to Austria or Switzerland. I highly recommend to visit Brazil! Carnaval is for sure the best party in the world no matter what age you are or where you are from! The Sambashows in Sambadrome are astonishing. I am off to the next Samba party!
nimsri
March 4, 2014 – 2:24 pm
@eryba1 are you planning to add GDX or any gold stocks here
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:25 pm
@nimsri: I have gold as one of my biggest positions rt now. I am not adding it nor selling it. IF U R asking is it a good time to add if u have none? want to add, I would say yes.
nimsri
March 4, 2014 – 2:26 pm
Ok. Thank you!
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:26 pm
@nimsri: The thinking is gold will move up with / as the economy improves and as interest rates rise
nimsri
March 4, 2014 – 2:28 pm
Ok. Also it looks like Gold has held the 1330 level for now
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:29 pm
INVN and JDSU looking very good again. If invn can cross above 21.6- 21.7 the next leg higher of a move should begin
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:32 pm
INVN 21.85 range is an all time hi for this 3yr old publicly traded company. If it can get above that a who new set of levels higher can emerge.
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 2:32 pm
Anyone have N edge on plug fcel type cos?
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 2:33 pm
just FYI, for those who want to buy physical metal, gold and silver, but don’t want the hassle- right this minute CEF is selling for 4% under NAV- IMO it’s a good way to hold the metals- (in your possession is always best, but this is 2nd best)
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:33 pm
@jakef1111: solar is ON FIRE hit money chasing it in a BIG way.
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 2:36 pm
one more thing- the Uranium stks have been on fire too- making up for lost time- i am not sure if any group has been so crushed and hated- but with the announcement that Japan will restart 17 reactors out of 50, the stks are soaring. URZ UEC DNN CCJ
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 2:38 pm
@eryba1: wondering- I have about 3/4 of my position in INVN- do you have your buys completed? what to do now- wait for a pullback to buy the rest, or just buy it here- the unanswerable question, but whaddya think?
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 2:46 pm
@Turtle108: my opinion id wait for volume breakout and buy or see if it rolls over to the bottom of this range it has on invn
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:48 pm
@Turtle108: I have my full position on as of today. I bot more this morning. If U dont want to chase, there are other buys U can make JDSU, goog, to name a few. I am waiting PATIENTLY for SSYS to come to me below 120 to buy it.
indiasilver
March 4, 2014 – 2:54 pm
@eryba You think GOOG is a buy here?
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 2:54 pm
@indiasilver: yes
indiasilver
March 4, 2014 – 2:59 pm
Wish I could go back and buy it yesterday. It’s so hard to gauge a stock like GOOG because it runs, then settles, then runs again sometimes with a decent pull back but often not…
indiasilver
March 4, 2014 – 2:59 pm
Thanks @eryba1
lfnunnally
March 4, 2014 – 3:00 pm
@erbya1: what do you think of AAPL here? Do you think it will remain in a range for a while?
Turtle108
March 4, 2014 – 3:07 pm
@eryba1: thanks- would love to buy more GOOG, it’s hard to do at this price, but I guess that doesn’t matter-
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 3:09 pm
@lfnunnally: I have some apple its a mid sized position for me. I will hold it as I am waiting like all others for new products / new markets entry. Its looking like I said this before a 2nd half 2014 stock. I do want to add more but it doesnt budge, range bound. I said If I see weakness to $500 I will add add if a new trend higher is confirmed I will add. RT now not doing either.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 3:09 pm
@indiasilver: thats why we always buy SOME on pullbacks, if that is ones style in uptrending stocks which GOOG IS.
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 3:10 pm
@Turtle108: then buy 1/2 of what U wanted. JDSU and INVN especially looking like a breakout vol is there as well on INVN
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 3:14 pm
lets not forget keep some powder dry as we get to fear / greed gauge at 72, and we have an ALL important Jobs # this friday the market wants to see if past 2 months #’s were a polar vortex anomaly and if a better #is seen this month.
lfnunnally
March 4, 2014 – 3:32 pm
Erbya: thank you
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 4:44 pm
test
eryba1
March 4, 2014 – 4:49 pm
It was a mirror image of upside action this time vs the decline yesterday, The yield on the 10 year rise 3$ to 2.691%. The baltic dry index rose for a 13th straight day to 1276 as it now seems the bottom was at 1100. Gold pulled just about 1% and seems to be in a range hovering on the +/1 of 1330. Many stocks acted quite strong today with ZNGA and INVN having 8% moves higher on twice their daily AVG. INVN broke out to a new all time hi. Jdsu is trying to break to a new leg higher, lets give it more time. We have an all important jobs # for the market this friday so keep some powder dry. The S&P is at new all time hi’s and has depending which technician U ask a cup and handle formation breakout or a head and shoulders bottom. GN
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 7:05 pm
Is aapl developing a SHS bottom?
doug.sekula
March 4, 2014 – 7:06 pm
@eryba1: How are you playing CIEN threw earnings?
jakef1111
March 4, 2014 – 7:24 pm
@doug.sekula: hes has that for a while i think… I wonder what new positions are coming cody has sold out of ddd tqnt ff recently must be something good coming
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 7:02 am
Shares of Zynga (NASDAQ: ZNGA ) hit a new 52-week high today, after CEO Don Mattrick spoke at a Morgan Stanley conference discussing mobile plans, as well as the idea of the company’s entrance into real-money gambling. The company also stated yesterday that it would be rebooting three of its most important franchises, FarmVille, Zynga Poker and Words With Friends.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 7:05 am
@doug.sekula: I am holding what I have and will look to see what they report tom morning. I am leaving room to add if need be
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 8:01 am
Facebook price target raised to $82 from $72 at Stifel Stifel increased its price target on Facebook as the firm thinks the company is continuing to gain share of overall marketing spending. Stifel believes that marketers are becoming interested in using Facebook for a variety of functions, including branding, public relations, and CRM. Stifel increased its estimates for Facebook significantly above consensus levels, and keeps a Buy rating on the stock.
DRogers
March 5, 2014 – 8:15 am
For an interesting perspective on Russia and Ukraine, check out: thttp://www.themoscowtimes.com/
DRogers
March 5, 2014 – 8:16 am
I am thinking we are going to see this issue again, even though the US media has put it on the backburner…
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 8:22 am
GM with the all important to the market jobs # this friday we sure are ramping into those #’s to be released friday morning. We can all see the fear gauge at 74= a pretty hi #, we can all see from the oscillator we are still in an uptrend and overbought. There are too many bulls in another gauge and too few bears- http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/. What I am getting at is if we see another day or more of the action we saw yesterday we may be setting ourselves for a sell the news reaction even to a good news Jobs # friday. Lets watch how we progress and watch our individual stocks carefully, lets sell rips and buy dips.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 8:23 am
The 10yr yield is up a bit this morning and the baltic dry index had a BIG rise overnight up near 4% to 1325. We want to protect our capital and take some profits. We dont want to be buying at fear gauge +70’s – 80’s rather trimming at these levels.
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 8:29 am
@eryba1: confirm Cody sold all FF. I saw a trade alert, but then it is still in his positions
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 8:30 am
@JSmith: we can ask today at the 1 hr chat at 2pm.
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 8:38 am
@eryba1: thanks, I will be flying…can you please ask for me
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 8:39 am
@JSmith: I will set a reminder to do so.
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 8:40 am
@eryba1: thanks
Olivepetunia
March 5, 2014 – 8:43 am
@JSmith: You can usually post the question early, i.e., before the chat and he should see it.
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 8:53 am
@Olivepetunia: thanks
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 8:56 am
@eryba1: what is your take on INVN, it seems to have broken through the multiple tops…from a tech viewpoint..is now the time to buy more…or do you wait?
lfnunnally
March 5, 2014 – 8:59 am
Holding on to some VXX and cash. This market is becoming unrealistic.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 9:01 am
@JSmith: to chase here? U have some? none? I dont like to chase even after this breakout in any major way. At times if the ship has sailed its time to find a diff investment or wait for it come in on a pullback. We dont want to increase our cost basis or BUY hi sell low. 8% move higher yesterday we dont know for sure its direction or close today. I know if we see another STRONG rise today I will start to trim some if I see more indicators reaching very overbought levels going into fridays job #
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 9:02 am
@eryba1: makes sense, thanks.
carl
March 5, 2014 – 9:11 am
carl
March 5, 2014 – 9:11 am
Take a look at this article on drones—
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 9:25 am
@carl: All very cool ideas, like amazon drones, multiple years away it seems though.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:14 am
Invn up another 4% Cien 1.6% FB 2% amzn 1.5% we are rallying further into fridays Job # and the fear gauge is now at 78. Someone asked me yesterday if I have an upside target for the S&P 500. I responded by saying I would rather watch my individual stocks vs waste my time with a target for the S&P. Today is a perfect example S&P is down a bit yet our stocks are up. If this continues I am feeling the need to SELL / TRIM some going into fridays jobs #
Golfcar101
March 5, 2014 – 10:17 am
@eryba1: do you see anything to move jdsu before next er has been stuck in this 13.70 – 14.00 range for awhile
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:21 am
@Golfcar101: CIEN earnings may drive it higher if they are good, ericksson news for cien may make CC call bullish need to see tomorrow.
Golfcar101
March 5, 2014 – 10:22 am
thanks
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 10:26 am
@eryba1: thoughts on csiq earning? Buying opp or wait and see?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:27 am
@JSmith: dont ow it myself, not on my screen, chart looks ok. I have no insight on its earnings.
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 10:27 am
@eryba1: isn’t ssys getting close to your small buy price?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:28 am
@JSmith: under 120 and if there is a pullback in markets from these higher readings I am watching for even lower prices, as I said I am being patient. WOuld like to see 110 or lower.
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 10:28 am
@eryba1: I am waiting for MIDD to find it’s bottom before buying back the little I sold
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 10:31 am
@eryba1: I like you patience … Trying to learn to have more
lfnunnally
March 5, 2014 – 10:32 am
@jsmith: haha me too!
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:33 am
@JSmith: yesterday it bounced off 288 and rose to near 300 and today bk to 288, give this some room to settle if it does vs V shaped moves unless these V shaped moves occur at certain moving avg’s
JSmith
March 5, 2014 – 10:40 am
@eryba1: thanks. Will see if you agree when I look to add more
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:47 am
@JSmith: sometimes we have to. Trust me its not for when times R great like now its when we get pullbacks if U R not patient and buy too much too soon U give all the gains back and THEN SOME!!
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:48 am
If anyone had bought INVN and JDSU and FB on the pullbacks and they are a good % of your portfolio U R really minting $$ here and I am more inclined to TRIM some here at some point today.
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 10:51 am
@eryba1: trimmed some invn market and it will want to test thid breakout?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:54 am
@jakef1111: good move I am going to trim some as well, Its WED and these stocks FB INVN have been on a RAMP higher.
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 10:55 am
Didnt trim fb or crm tho
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 10:57 am
@jakef1111: I will at some point today trim FB have not done so yet, I am just protecting gains, trusting my gut, BIG jobs # fri for the market, we are overbought, greed gauge at 78 = VERY hi, its just one data point but has been quite helpful. Look markets could fall yet certain stocks could rise even in a down market to alleviate hi fead gauge levels
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 11:07 am
@eryba1: yea fb has been a cash cow….. Not sure what to do with my aapl seems like it wants to build a base to test 550 area no one! Is even talking about it wether it be to buy or sell and upgrade or some product news could produce a decent move in it i think
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:13 am
@jakef1111: yes but products we are told by many coming in Q3-4. Any good news from apple iphone sales china as an example can have it ramping higher. That is why I own some for the 2nd half of 2014, if it seems 500 I will see market conditions then and decide to buy, rt now I wnat it at 500, if not then thats fine other stocks are treating my investments better than apple.
notlaw72
March 5, 2014 – 11:13 am
SSYS nearing the $120 mark… good level to buy here?
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 11:14 am
I think fb makes a new high too so im waiting on it
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:14 am
@notlaw72: I am watching it for now under 50 day avg and acting weak, so for me I am not buying rt now
notlaw72
March 5, 2014 – 11:15 am
OK Thanks
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:18 am
@notlaw72: I am thinking of it this way. If market is strong and 3D stocks acting weak thats a negative. If market pullback from fear gauge level of 78 SSYS and 3d stocks may act even weaker, Its not found support yet at all. It is drifting down. If market pullback does arise and SSYS acts strong I may add but there is no support of the stock yet, so I see no need to put capital in it yet.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:19 am
gold acting well and GDX and GDXJ doing well today
doug.sekula
March 5, 2014 – 11:34 am
Thinking of trimming INVN and FB now
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:35 am
@doug.sekula: thats what we have been doing today
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:35 am
FB myself not yet but will today, INVN trimmed
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 11:39 am
@cody maybe this is a dumb idea but fcel and plug have some really cheao options and they have ramped… Would it be wise to put a little money at risk with some puts?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:40 am
@jakef1111: options aside, do U see a crack in the stock price yet? people wanted to short TSLA at 240 250, Yelo at 90 now 100. Where is your advantage? Just some questions to ponder. As always go with your gut, what U see, read etc.
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 11:44 am
@eryba1: just based on how cheap the options are low risk high reward if it does drop… then again they are cheap stocks it would be interesting to see fcels er in a few days
Johan
March 5, 2014 – 11:44 am
INVN trimmed…
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:45 am
@jakef1111: Ok if U feel U have an edge, go ahead.
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 11:49 am
@eryba1: no edge really no cracking just a huge run up july puts are .3 @ 2$ if it drops to 2$ they should be 1.5 or so not a bad gamble i guess what im saying… Then again could just load up on fb aapl invn jdsu goog and not play around
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:52 am
@jakef1111: U just said it playing around. If a side bet / investment short term do as U feel. If U concentrate of buying dips and selling rips U have no time for sideshow games and instead focus in on the bigger picture in outperforming stocks vs trying to time tops in high flyers. Again that is up to u.
rkumar
March 5, 2014 – 11:52 am
any opinion on swir??
doug.sekula
March 5, 2014 – 11:53 am
@Johan: same. INVN trimmed. Also trimmed a little FB with plans on doing more before closing.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:54 am
@rkumar: looks like it wants to get back to 26, maybe not in a straight line, 15% rise this week alone
doug.sekula
March 5, 2014 – 11:56 am
was thinking of a CIEN earnings play. Small tranche with room to add
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 11:57 am
@rkumar: i think motley fool has swir identified as their internet of things potential winner
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 11:57 am
@doug.sekula: Interesting idea. did U buy lower? I want to add as well I had some mid sized position, want to see the #’s tom. If good I may add if doenst rise too much wont chase 7-10% like rise, if a few % pullbk I may buy
rkumar
March 5, 2014 – 12:00 pm
went long tza–mkt extended
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 12:01 pm
@rkumar: i think fsl is in the same/similar space look at that since er
joe.evicel
March 5, 2014 – 12:22 pm
I trimmed off some $Invn and $FSLR here
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 12:48 pm
is apple’s CHART trying to look like a large cup and handle formation? time will tell along with price action.
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 12:52 pm
it’s almost scary the way all of our stks are climbing- commodities are all climbing- wheat, coffee, is inflation here- maybe it’s coming sooner than most think-
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:02 pm
@Turtle108: took the words out of my mouth thus the trimming into this fridays job #. Stock picking, sell rips buy dips is working on all cylinders. Thus why I am trimming the names mentioned.
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 1:04 pm
@eryba1: is the reason aapls chart isnt forming a shs bottom that the RS is lower then the left?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:04 pm
@jakef1111: yes, looking more like cup and handle as a result and the way its looking rt now.
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@eryba1: are you expecting the jobs report to be good or bad- I guess bad is good? more easy $$$ coming? and if it’s good? then the economy is better- do stks go up either way?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@jakef1111: that plus TIME needs time to form as well
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:09 pm
@Turtle108: at this point I think we may see a sell the news reaction if we keep heading higher, UNLESS its so pristine we could get one final surge higher. Either way way Mu gut says trim, sell pocket the 20% gains THIS WEEK in INVN and other big % gains since mondays lows.
jakef1111
March 5, 2014 – 1:12 pm
@eryba1: seems like were in a up/up situation with the market right now bad numbers mean less taper more fed… good numbers mean taper but economy is doing well so buy stocks… Id like to see the s&p test 1850 breakout
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:13 pm
@Turtle108: it was NOT easy to buy MONDAY market down 250. Either way we have seen GREAT profits YTD, MTD, Week todate so I am trimming FB is next up to trim for me up 4% today watching for a good time to do so.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:14 pm
@jakef1111: I am looking at gauges, sentiment, internal breadth, and most important our individual stocks. Things bough Monday mid day or so are up BIG so that is my cue into an overbought market with the jobs # friday.
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 1:21 pm
I keep thinking of all the stories from goldbugs all these yrs- about Weimar type inflation- buying loaves of bread with wheelbarrows of dollar bills. I really don’t think that will happen here, as in Zimbabwe- but, maybe a mini version coming? The first loan I ever got was for a car in the early 1980’s- with crystal clean credit we were charged 18% interest on a car loan . that’s when we sell our stks and buy treasuries, were it to happen again.
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 1:34 pm
@eryba1: what percent of your FB will you trim?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:34 pm
@Turtle108: yes but hard to see that happening again. However who knows will be on the watch for it. As always U never know where the top is if U see rates cd, treasuries at 8, 10, 12% U wont be lining up the?, heck even 6% now vs the .25-1% today being given for hi $$ money market acct No way to know if 18% is coming the top even 7% may be the top
Lets wait and see and decide
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:34 pm
@Turtle108: not sure if I should say
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:36 pm
@Turtle108: I invest $$ for a living for a few families running a fam office so I am infront of the screen every day for 12 hrs a day. My job is to find opportunities, sell rips buy dips so I can sell 2/3 my FB this past fri and get back all if if I decide on mon when market was down 250 and FB was at 67
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:37 pm
@Turtle108: I dont want to unduly influence too much other peoples actions here when many are not in front of screen daily, hourly to have that advantage.
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 1:38 pm
@eryba1:nice. I understand. you are so good at it that I am trying to learn from you, so every piece helps.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:40 pm
@Turtle108: we have been very fortunate!!
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 1:40 pm
@eryba1: “the harder I work, the luckier I get”-
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:41 pm
@Turtle108: I had mentioned that I will look to sell FB today have not done it yet.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:42 pm
@Turtle108: Good phrase- thomas jefferson
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@Turtle108: just as an example for the overall market this is a bearish sign – http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ This is a bullish sign- scroll down on this page- http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html this is a bit extended but bullish as in an uptrend- http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/ just to name a few
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:46 pm
ssys down 4.5% now looking like next support levels is bk at 110 if not lower? watching this one
Turtle108
March 5, 2014 – 1:46 pm
@eryba1: @eryba1: thanks for the links –
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:48 pm
@Turtle108: np- Also when U = when someone sells Ur mind is AT EASE, less tension, think more clearly, U locked in greta gains have GREAT YTD performance, great stocks to add on no on pullbacks or new stocks. By having money on sidelines after one has trimmed is UTTERLY liberating and from time to time a necessity. We dont always have to be ALL IN full throttle, there are times when we need to slow it down and lock some in
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:49 pm
going to TRIm that FB now.
rzepeda
March 5, 2014 – 1:50 pm
@eryba1: What made you pull the trigger on the trim at this moment?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:52 pm
@rzepeda: looking for broader market weakness starting to perhaps kick in, I see my screen get very active. I cant time the exact top or bottom so at these new all time hi’s for FB which I bot quite a bit at 67 handle monday is a nice exit point for now. I do really want to see the fear gauge back off
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:54 pm
amazon article- nice- http://seekingalpha.com/article/2069103-amazons-pullback-from-400-is-a-buying-opportunity?source=yahoo
rzepeda
March 5, 2014 – 1:54 pm
@eryba1: Well done and thank you for the reply
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 1:56 pm
@rzepeda: TY- We dont have to catch the exact top and bottom, not like we are selling all buying all type of approach. Trimming on way up and adding tranches on the way down.
Cody
March 5, 2014 – 1:57 pm
Yo yo yo, let’s do the weekly Live Q&A Chat. Come meet me right now at http://tradingwithcody.com/chat and ask me anything.
doug.sekula
March 5, 2014 – 2:02 pm
@eryba1: trimming FB with you, had your cost tails on CIEN since the teens. Thinking about buying back that CIEN soon at these levels for that first tranche/earnings play.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 2:03 pm
@doug.sekula: taking profits is always rewarding! Cien I understand. I want to see earnings. If great and ramps I have it as a mid sized position if jus OK and sell the news I will add. Tom will be the tell
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:22 pm
anyone else here feeling outright bullish or bearish as cody has been asking?
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:22 pm
@eryba1: which camp are you in at the moment.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:23 pm
@chrismossey: cautious : – just as an example for the overall market this is a bearish sign – http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/ This is a bullish sign- scroll down on this page- http://online.barrons.com/public/page/9_0210-instrans.html this is a bit extended but bullish as in an uptrend- http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/ just to name a few
lfnunnally
March 5, 2014 – 3:24 pm
I think skiddish is appropriate. I am 60% in cash. Waiting patiently with you to see how Friday’s numbers pan out.
Nels
March 5, 2014 – 3:25 pm
not outright bearish, but cautious. just picked up some FAZ as a hedge.
Nels
March 5, 2014 – 3:25 pm
10% faz, 40% cash and 50% long
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:26 pm
@Nels: now the question is 50% in what stocks and what % each weighting in your acct.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:27 pm
@eryba1: My concern is that we really have not had major move. From the start of the year the S&P is only up a touch. I don’t want to miss a move.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:31 pm
I did buy some IWM puts today. So I have the trades on that Cody signaled on Friday.
Nels
March 5, 2014 – 3:31 pm
@eryba1: XONE, CIEN, JNPR, AAPL, INVN, INTC, JDSU, ONVO. Average about 8% each holding; a bit lighter in the apple and ONVO, and a bit heavier in CIEN.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:31 pm
@chrismossey: U R looking YTD. I am looking at the almost straight up move from S&p 1730 to 1876 today. Plus all the small wanring signs links I just posted some keeps me cautious.
Nels
March 5, 2014 – 3:32 pm
sorry, super slow connection apparently
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:32 pm
@Nels: no FB, SNDK, AMZN, GOOG? otherwise seems ok. The leaders r what r driving this market.
Nels
March 5, 2014 – 3:33 pm
rode FB from the high teens to 50, and have been looking for entry on it and the others.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:33 pm
@eryba1: I agree. Perhaps a small couple of days of weakness. We are in the last month of the qtr ahead of April earnings and then seasonal weakness.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:34 pm
@chrismossey: when the S&P fell 1848 to 1730 we did say hey we R unch on the year why r we correction? Its not where U R its where U came from
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:34 pm
@eryba1: yes
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:36 pm
I feel like we are in the run up for this particular qtr into earnings season. But I am being cautious. Still 65% cash.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:36 pm
@chrismossey: Many internals flashing signs to warn us, we have had some monster YTD moves in our best stocks that need to be our biggest longs. FB, TQNT, ZNGA, GOOG, INVN, SNDK, JNPR CIEN
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:37 pm
Yes, I saw you trimming FB. I will be doing the same.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:37 pm
All I am saying is lets b safe U see the fear gauge, jobs # friday, GREAT run from even MON in many stocks so why put too much at risk. We are not selling all just trimming the out performers a bit
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:38 pm
@eryba1: singing your hymn. Added to puts today and added tza.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:41 pm
The one place I feel like I could add is jdsu – it is still below my current cost basis in one of my accounts.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:41 pm
@chrismossey: I got LUCKY fri buying VXX and selling some mon some tues and trimming longs fri and buying bk mon and tues. Now its been a good stretch just want to take some risk off, However it is true so many dip buyers out there looking to get back in that is why dips have been shallow or short lived so far. Lets us digest the overbought nature with moves like today, consolidate the avg’s and internals so we can see a healthier market.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:43 pm
@chrismossey: jdsu consolidating rt around its 10 day moving avg bouncing off it rising a bit then pulling bk .
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:43 pm
@eryba1: anyone trimming INVN? – I have 16-20% moves in this.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:47 pm
@chrismossey: i was
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@eryba1: Love your three market indicators. Do you get the Barrons one from the paid electronic subscription?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:54 pm
@chrismossey: no, rely on these and a few others from a TA I follow
jahmon
March 5, 2014 – 3:59 pm
I’m not…want my lost base low for the long profit
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 3:59 pm
@chrismossey: sometimes its as simple as buy low sell hi, no one can say we are buying low here. U R 65% cash and hedged. I am near 35% cash. I dont think now is the time to load up. Let things settle down digest, sideways action pullback other to relieve the overbought nature on a few indicators. When fear gauge was 13 we said its hard but BUY. Now at +78 I dont think we have the same conviction. Not saying we have to fall apart strong markets dont do that dip buys pounce at pullbacks and keep markets from pulling bk too much cash wants to find a home and fast fearing being left behind. Nothing wrong with waiitng to see what develops
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 4:10 pm
Analyst sees groceries as ‘massive’ opportunity for Amazon Amazon.com’s (AMZN) grocery initiative, Amazon Fresh, could spark a new, long-term growth spurt for the company, research firm PiperJaffray wrote in a note to investors earlier today. WHAT’S NEW: According to the USDA, Americans spent $677B on groceries in 2012, Piper analyst Gene Munster wrote. As a result, Fresh will be a “massive” opportunity for Amazon.com, the analyst stated. Fresh also provides Amazon.com with an indirect opportunity, Munster believes. Specifically, the initiative could cause users to spend more time on the website, ultimately resulting in higher sales for Amazon, the analyst believes.
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 4:11 pm
Target (TGT) used a similar strategy beginning in 2009, as it added grocery sections to its smaller stores in an effort to entice consumers to visit the stores more frequently. Noting that Amazon currently offers Fresh in Seattle, Los Angeles and San Francisco, Munster wrote that the service is convenient, fast and efficient, but could improve in the areas of price and selection. He kept a $420 price target and Overweight rating on Amazon.com shares. WHAT’S NOTABLE: Fresh costs $299 per year. In addition to the grocery service, subscribers receive all the other benefits of Amazon Prime.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 4:25 pm
@eryba1: 420 in what time frame?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 4:54 pm
@chrismossey: usually they are yearly targets, not a big call as its a 10% move higher he’s talking about, but the depths of what he is saying could speak volumes for amazon Revenue rising.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 4:56 pm
@eryba1: yes
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 5:00 pm
@chrismossey: to be honest no one is cheerleading this rise in stocks. markets are what up 1.5% ytd on the S&P so in a way we are not frothy in that regard. It is just the internals that need to improve. Individual stocks of ours again one needs the right mix but they are GREATLY OUTPERFORMING. ZNGA, TQNT,SNDK,GOOG,FB,INVN,FSLR, JNPR, GDX. These are the ones we need to add on pullbacks they will be the ones people come rt back too.
sudesh
March 5, 2014 – 5:11 pm
@eryba1: hello and thanks for your presence here in chat everyday…hey at the Q & A I needed more clarification on the puts strikes for SPY and IWN and cody answered, “I bought some IWM April and May puts with strikes around $110. And I bought some SPY puts expiring in April and May with around $180 strikes.” now I am even more confused…maybe it is a typo and it IWN at 101…which is near the money, BUT the SPY 180 strikes are way below the current price of 187…more clarification please…thanks
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 5:12 pm
@sudesh: Options are his domain not mine. I only use common. E-mail him / bill and your question for more clarification.
sudesh
March 5, 2014 – 5:14 pm
@eryba1: ok thanks…I will do so and what is the best way…to email him…sorry I never have ?
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 5:15 pm
@sudesh: support@tradingwithcody.com and if U R here tom and cody is on U can ask directly.
sudesh
March 5, 2014 – 5:16 pm
@eryba1: yes will do both thanks !
eryba1
March 5, 2014 – 5:21 pm
Markets digesting gains, dip buyers HUNGRY to put $$ to work keeping pullbacks shallow. if / when that pattern breaks we will get that deeper further correction. 10 yr yield 2.698% up .25% Quite a few of our stocks are really outperforming. Watch these names for pullbacks to add into. FB, GOOG, INVN, GDX,SNDK,JNPR,TQNT,ZNGA, to name a few. The Gov Jobs # is out fri morning. The Market may be quiet tom leading into that #. TOM we have CIEN earnings before the open, lets see what it says and reaction to it and how it may affect JDSU and JNPR as well. GN & C U tom morning.
chrismossey
March 5, 2014 – 6:30 pm
@Cody: Are you thinking of adding to the put positions you initiated Friday after the last few days run up? Or waiting to see if we go a bit hire first?
