Subscriber Chat Room Archive (February 6th – February 12th)
Here is the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 7:23 am
GM and welcome to the roller coaster from hell where the 1st drop is so long and steep u dont know when its going to end= Its apparent the market beast wants to be fed a # it can FEED off of. that is the GOV JOBS # tomorrow morning. Until then there will be small data points like ISM ADP and todays Europe keep rates UNCH and leaves its QE program UNCH as well. Futures are pointed up but dont trust the beast until its served its main course. A few stocks have reported and AKAM is up HUGE 17% meanwhile TWTR is down HUGE 20+ % Its a hit or miss earnings season where if your report OK #’s yet dont increase guidance you can dig your own grave. Stay sharp and focused. We have ZNGA tonight and LNKD set to report earnings.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 7:23 am
the Oscillator for the Nasdaq is now where it had been in mid-May 2012: reflecting a grossly oversold condition. Again, that is for the short term. For an intermediate-term low, it would need to bounce and then hit a higher low.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:02 am
Twitter downgraded at UBS FEB 06, 2014 | 7:45 AM EST TWTR downgraded to Sell from Neutral, UBS said. Driven by negative trends in user growth and engagement. $42 price target.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:09 am
Triquint upgraded at Needham FEB 06, 2014 | 7:53 AM EST TQNT was upgraded from Hold to Buy, Needham said. $10 price target. Company should benefit from a mix shift in the coming quarters.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:09 am
Twitter downgraded at Stifel FEB 06, 2014 | 7:55 AM EST TWTR was downgraded from Buy to Hold, Stifel Nicolaus said. User growth is slowing and the company has a lofty valuation. Fair value is $56.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:09 am
Twitter downgraded at Sterne Agee FEB 06, 2014 | 8:01 AM EST TWTR was downgraded from Neutral to Underperform, Sterne Agee said. $43 price target. User growth is slowing.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:12 am
Cramer on TWTR vs FB- Twitter. You are talking about a $20 stock if that’s the case — yep, a 50x multiple on 2016 earnings, about the highest multiple I can find for companies that could double earnings over the next two years. Don’t laugh — using that same multiple, I can get to $100 on Facebook (F
, so it isn’t such a bad shorthand.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:31 am
The reaction to the Twitter earnings in the form of downgrades and stock decline so far I think only solidifies the foundation and leadership of FB and its RICH media platform and capabilities to connect individuals, consumers and consumers to business. Lets see if this thinking is shared by investors in the days weeks and months ahead as FB becomes the clear leader on Social connectivity that WORKS! is Enjoyed and is thriving.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 8:38 am
Baltic dryship rates up for a 2nd day in a row. DOnt get me wrong these are now 2 back to back days of miniscule advances but after a 60% decline in 4-6 weeks any base forming is a welcome sight for now.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:04 am
ZNGA rise off GLUU earnings- http://seekingalpha.com/article/1998851-mobile-gaming-update-glu-mobile-delivers?source=yahoo
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:18 am
Znga- http://seekingalpha.com/article/1998681-is-it-too-late-to-buy-zynga-and-glu-mobile?source=yahoo
Cody
February 6, 2014 – 9:26 am
This ugly $TWTR action is the type of thing that can panic out the momo traders in the broader market too. Patience is what I’ve been preaching so far this year and still am.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:27 am
@Cody: the twtr $$ should eventually find its way to other social names. Such as YELP, FB to name a few.
Cody
February 6, 2014 – 9:28 am
@eryba1: Or all the hot money drains from the social names to other sectors, perhaps. Could happen.
rzepeda
February 6, 2014 – 9:28 am
@Cody, I have to give you lots of credit for painting the picture for us regarding FB and TWTR. You always said TWTR is limited (#of characters, etc) while FB is a richer social experience.
Cody
February 6, 2014 – 9:28 am
@rzepeda: Rockon!
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:30 am
@Cody: after powerful earnings from goog, Fb, YELP, NFLX etc as they have true rapid growth, Why would $$ flee vs find a new home in the leaders looking to benefit from continued upward trends.
Cody
February 6, 2014 – 9:30 am
@eryba1: For one thing, valuations are insane in most of those names. For another, we are in a sell-off market environment.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:31 am
tqnt up 9% wow didnt see that coming off yesterdays #’s. pleasantly surprised.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:32 am
@Cody: any insight off the FB, YELP, GOOG #’s what LNKD will look like tonight?
drefleury
February 6, 2014 – 9:56 am
@Cody: Looks like Lockheed is getting some big contracts from the armed forces… Any thought son that name for a long pick?
drefleury
February 6, 2014 – 9:56 am
@Cody: Sorry, I meant as it related to drone vehicles, etc…
MikeM
February 6, 2014 – 10:05 am
I am shorting YELP here for a short term trade…
Johan
February 6, 2014 – 10:15 am
trimming tqnt… I have been trimming in general my positions since the bigining of 2014 and getting around 50% in cash waiting for a big pullback… now, I will try to be patience. Best
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 10:15 am
@MikeM: why?
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 10:17 am
@Johan: big pullback- U mean the one we have seen play out so far was not enticing enough on particular names?
MikeM
February 6, 2014 – 10:18 am
@eryba1: I didnt expect the big TQNT rise here either this morning either after the report. I am trimming some here of yesterdays tranche
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 10:20 am
@MikeM: I was referring to the YELP short. TQNT nice move off earnings sell some I clearly understand.
joe.evicel
February 6, 2014 – 10:24 am
@MikeM: I just got in on a quick short for $YELP as well, the numbers and guidance are good but I don’t see it holding this 20% gap up over the next day and a half.
jahmon
February 6, 2014 – 10:25 am
I have to agree as well on this huge yelp jump
jahmon
February 6, 2014 – 10:26 am
and pleasantly surprised on the almost 10% jump in TQNT. Cody pretty much nailed in in the chat yesterday, even the 2% downside in AF to the 10% upside today.
Johan
February 6, 2014 – 10:26 am
@eryba1: I am really long in my portfolio and I believe in the names, which are more or less similar to Cody’s portfolio, but as Cody just said, I also believe this is a sell off market, so I prefer not to be aggressive nowdays… best
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 10:28 am
@Johan: I agree.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 10:30 am
@Johan: I just think we had the first wave of the selloff and we now see what names are strong ion investors eye. I think we can bounce higher if we get an OK # tomorrow. Then we can trim and see where the market wants to go after that. Cash I know in this correction has fared well, but if u have the right names this selloff has not affected in a corrective way GOOG FB and a few other names as earnings have been very good.
Jeffhok1970
February 6, 2014 – 10:30 am
I am not a short seller but I see the logic in the YELP play. Look at CREE, ZNGA (and I suspect thee are others). Both had big jumps after results and then retreated.
Jeffhok1970
February 6, 2014 – 10:32 am
for the record I am staying with cash
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 10:34 am
@Jeffhok1970: it is a comforting feeling during a downdraft.
Jeffhok1970
February 6, 2014 – 10:36 am
Shoutout to UHAL – I know it is not a TWC stock but I have been holding it for a couple years. They once again hit earnings. Great conservative company. Managing family owns a big chunk. Insurance play and moving/storage. Have $30/share in cash.
jahmon
February 6, 2014 – 11:21 am
Anyone interested in buying VIX on an up day?
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 11:26 am
@jahmon: I want to buy protection but want to wait for tomorrows job #. For now trimming some LNKD and some other names.
Jeffhok1970
February 6, 2014 – 11:35 am
@jahmon: I have a 1/3 position/tranche in Vix 16 March puts in anticipation of the next big run up. I am hopeful we will be back to rally mode by mid March.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 11:47 am
Oil up, 10 yr yield UP, baltic dry index UP all sectors in the green. This is a small uptrend in the larger downtrend we have had. Need to recover the 50 day avg on the indices to confirm the bottom has been seen. We are far from that for for now just treat it like a bounce top be safe. Tom is the BIG BAD # investors have craved for. We have seem some glimpse of what it may be with ADP, ISM preliminary jobs data thus the rise today. This was a coiled spring of a market it may bounce higher if the # isn’t terrible. If its inline or other watch out.
MikeM
February 6, 2014 – 12:19 pm
@eryba1: I am following your lead and doing some trimming here as well ahead of tomorrow’s jobs #.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 12:23 pm
@MikeM: yes we just dont know, if anyone was buy amazon under 340 or near it, LNKD 210 or under goog under 1100 aapl 500 cien 21.5 even 3d stocks r up today, tqnt at or near 8. I think from ISM ADP and other data the market went too negative and many stocks got thrown out. If the # is OK we could see a strong day tomorrow. Since we dont KNOW for sure why not trim some. We could get to S&P 1800 then screams for a RETEST of the lows before we break above that 50 day avg on the S&P. Lets see, today is a good day to trim a bit for me.
MikeM
February 6, 2014 – 12:25 pm
@eryba1: Regarding YELP short, it is a trade (short term only) based on a trend pattern I have followed and now use that follows a percentage rise or fall to generally longer term highs or lows and has been quite successful as a short term trade. I have tracked the patterns and variables for a while and continue to document outcomes, whether successful or not. A percentage gain (generally about 5-10%) on either side of the trade or trades, if tranches, and I am out as the trend gets much less “predictable” after that general threshold. On the flip side, did the same with DDD common yesterday, for example, and limit orders on both the buy and sell side of that trade executed yesterday. I use the limit orders on either side to take the emotion out of the trade and also for consistency
MikeM
February 6, 2014 – 12:28 pm
@eryba1: Thx for your guidance…Did trim tqnt, cien, amzn, and xone also here today as well.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@MikeM: yes lets build up some cash for the next decline as it will come. There is always a good retest as MANY many want to see and it usually comes to fruition. We could still bounce higher tomorrow but today I’m inclined to sell rips and buy dips. Just small trims today for me.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 12:31 pm
As for YELP, no signs of cracking it can easily HOLD its gains vs cracking at this point. JMO.
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 12:47 pm
theres only one zuckerberg and hes at fb—
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 12:47 pm
twitter is in trouble
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 12:49 pm
@rkumar: unless they change YES. The article I wrote months ago on the rich media of FB vs just 140 characters from Fb and MANY other reasons are now all the things hurting TWTR and should help FB in the long run.
Jeffhok1970
February 6, 2014 – 1:08 pm
Anyone want to predict the jobs number for tomorrow? A little TWC non-binding number game. I am going with 166,000
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 1:13 pm
@Jeffhok1970: Lets put a baseline first the AVG consensus is that the US economy added 185,000K jobs- http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/02/05/january-adp-report/5212625/
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 1:18 pm
I say this market had priced in a # closer to 100-125K jobs with its decline. I do think it was an over reaction so I am going to say 150K jobs. If we see 200K this market could explode higher and then retest if it does come it wont be from the jobs #. If we do get a weak # that 3-5% decline woosh cody is talking about may happen very soon. Thus trimming today.
joe.evicel
February 6, 2014 – 1:21 pm
@MikeM: My thinking on $Yelp is along the same as yours but in additiont I feel that if the jobs number tmrw is bad it will definitely retrace more than it has already and if the jobs report is good people will still start jumping to safer stocks that have already had a retracement and now have a higher potential to run up compared to $yelp needing to continue an already stellar 20% gap up. Just my thoughts
jahmon
February 6, 2014 – 1:31 pm
YELP was up 21% and now 17%
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 1:57 pm
@jahmon: if someone can time the exact hi and another lower point intraday in a stock that is up 21% for the day by all means trade away. That is a tough way to go about things in general much less intraday moves. Stock up 19.25% now.
jakef1111
February 6, 2014 – 2:34 pm
@eryba1: ive had a couple lucky trades this week i bought spxw puts covered em making a little the morning we made intraday lows bought spxw calls those r rockin today…. Talkin in the chat room with cody i had the idea to hedge twtr common with a put…. Mainy cuz i agreed with cody about his take on twtr… I also thought first er its gonna be put in the show me penalty box so after the report i sold my common ah when it was down 7 my puts opened up covering what i lost with twtr down 14… For once in my life i pushed the right buttons lol….i think were gonna rally to 1800 regardless of the number tomorrow but a good number with the weather puts us over… But i dunno squat just playing middle linebacker on the protecting my capital team read and react …. Thank you cody for your ti
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 2:37 pm
@jakef1111: I understand. Lets play some D today by trimming a bit no blitzing = risky moves today. Lets see the # and see what develops. I think it will be a powerful reaction but todays we are + 177 and taking perhaps some of the firing power away from a move tom. I do think near 1800 there will be resistance and codys 3-5% decline after a 2-3 % rise may be in the cards.
jakef1111
February 6, 2014 – 2:46 pm
@eryba1: on a diff note is it ok to be the one guy in the room who doesnt believe in amzn? I feel like in order for them to be turning on the profit spigot they have to raise prices on the kindle which they seem to sell at cost… From an online retailer POV what margin do they need to reach to justify their valuation… And can a retailer do that? i dunno…I see the online video and prime aspect going well but its a pretty penny compared to nflx im just sold on amzn
jakef1111
February 6, 2014 – 2:47 pm
Not*
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 2:52 pm
@jakef1111: I hope no one he is being SOLD by anyone- We need to read a lot, gather knowledge, see charts, stock action and then make decisions for out own portfolios that are as people here VASTLY different than anyone elses. I LOVE amazon’s service. I think its trying to take market share and attention and grow with more fullfilment centers near its most dense population to cut down on future shipping costs and thus make all prime memberships PURE profits as 2 day for a distribution center 1 day away is FREE and UPS ground os USPS ground and not the 2 day air prices. With REV growing 20% Y/Y its still growing nicely but still spending to grow. I go to amazon for gifts, food, household supplies I used to buy at so mnay brick and mortar stores. However that is just me.
jahmon
February 6, 2014 – 2:56 pm
Cody no VIX for you?
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:00 pm
from a fund manager Friend just now- I don’t think it matters as much as ADPs – which under Mark Zandi is a more credible institution. ADP takes into account all payrolls vs. NFP is just paid payrolls – which is more weather impacted. 175-200K is where I see the number averaging – not great not horrible. We just got the 5% dip everyone wanted and everyone panicked. As you pointed out even I just bought smaller lots – but I bought and was net money in. 10 yr yield bothersome for sure – not to be ignored but considering how short everyone was headed into the year
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:01 pm
on ADP vs gov non farm payroll #’s and the 10 year yield
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:02 pm
I learned a long time ago–big events like tomorowws job number–be hedged be small
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:03 pm
@rkumar: like earnings day, U never know how market will react to data.
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:03 pm
agreed
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:03 pm
its only feb 6
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:04 pm
@rkumar: last year was the same for tech. It lagged badly as a group then ONLy picked up around MAY when FB exploded to the upside after its funk and decline to 18-20.
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:05 pm
yws but this year–with social mobile connectivity–wearables–tech will have earnings and leadership–world is becoming more tech centric
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:06 pm
any chance lulu is a wearable play?/women love this stuff
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@rkumar: very true goog, FB, NFLX, AKAM, YELP, TSLA, JNPR leaders in 2014
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@rkumar: love the product but have U seen the stock, needs to be bought or viable CEO respected brought in.
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:08 pm
the new ceo is suppose to be good–
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:11 pm
@rkumar: stock 82 to low 40’s in 7 months
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:14 pm
@rkumar: lulu wearable play? perhaps but the way stock is performing they just hope people WEAR their clothes vs have wearables in it.
echan008
February 6, 2014 – 3:44 pm
instead of VIX first small tranche on UVXY at 84.5. it was over 100 this morning.
Olivepetunia
February 6, 2014 – 3:47 pm
Anyone watching LNN? Is this breaking out? (Spike last Wednesday a quotation error?)
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:49 pm
@Olivepetunia: looks very good
rkumar
February 6, 2014 – 3:49 pm
can sne be a wearable play??
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 3:50 pm
@rkumar: can SNE survive is more like it.
jahmon
February 6, 2014 – 4:29 pm
Sold all of my LNKD today…down 10% AH … So many bullets to dodge right now!
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 4:47 pm
@jahmon: its down 5% A/H from 223 close now at 211.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 4:47 pm
I also trimmed just to be safe. The logic is if the # is good and the qtr and guidncne is good U can then be safe to buy dips or a decline in it during corrections like we are seeing in the markets.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 4:58 pm
OK It was a nice bounce. The real fireworks come tomorrow at 8:30 am. What we do know are companies that will be rewarded by the market on the next pullback. Who the leaders are is where the $$ will flow to. Lets keep a shopping list of them and targets where we may want to buy on pullbacks. YELP, AKAM, NFLX, FB, GOOG, CMG, DIS, TQNT, JDSU, then others who have corrected and may be good entries, AMZN, AAPL, CMI, SBUX. Nice upside in 1o yr yield and Oil. Let see what Asia does overnight as well. GN get some rest it could be a WILD ride tomorrow.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:34 pm
By Carla Mozee LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Apple Inc. AAPL -0.12% has repurchased $14 billion of its own shares in the last two weeks, The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday, saying it was told of the buybacks by Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook. The transactions have taken place since the release of Apple’s fiscal first-quarter results, in which iPhone sales fell short of analyst expectations. Apple’s sales forecast for its fiscal second quarter was also below Wall Street’s projections. Cook said Apple’s purchases of more than $40 billion of its shares over the past 12 months is a record amount for any company over a similar period of time.
eryba1
February 6, 2014 – 9:35 pm
Cook said the move was a sign of confidence. It’s also effectively a response to activist investor Carl Icahn, who has been pushing the company to use its giant cash stockpile to buy more shares
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 7:21 am
LinkedIn upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust SunTrust upgraded its rating on LinkedIn to Buy from Neutral following the company’s Q4 results and raised its price target for the shares to $260 from $250. SunTrust believes LinkedIn’s outlook positions the company for better than expected results in 2014. Shares of LinkedIn are trading down 7%, or $16.32, to $207.13 in pre-market trading.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 8:04 am
apple ceo- This is what WALL ST HATES type of talk from CEO cook a while back” CEO Tim Cook was asked about the Apple buyback he said “So, we’re a big believer in buying back the stock, whether the stock goes up or down.” and now THISD is what WALL ST LOVES from cook last night on the buyback – to quote Tim Cook in today’s Wall Street Journal, in a way that is “aggressive” and “opportunistic.” and “It means that we are betting on Apple,” he said. “It means that we are really confident on what we are doing and what we plan to do. We’re not just saying that. We’re showing that with our actions.” DOES HE FINALLY GET IT< can he FINALLY do what needs to be done with a publically traded stock. Time will tell if he has learned his lesson.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 8:04 am
Now, of course, Apple has to execute on its plans to produce the best new products in a way that will increase sales growth. But just as important, this buy signals that the company really does think the stock is cheap.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 8:12 am
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/02/06/apple-health-tracking-job/5258169/
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 8:16 am
Facebook 10 yr 1 min video- Facebook could not provide exact numbers of how many movies were viewed, but “hundreds of millions of movies were rendered and have been rolling out,” said Facebook spokesperson Mandy Zibart.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 8:17 am
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2014/02/05/facebook-movies-10th-anniversary/5235943/
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 8:43 am
jobs # 113K jobs created in Jan vs estimated 175K up from dec # 75K- IMO not terrible not 50K or less as the market had acted would be a HORRENDOUS # with an 5-8% decline in the market averages- again IMO- Let see how we trade off this # as the NAZ is still GROSSLY OVERSOLD even with yesterdays rise.
Jeffhok1970
February 7, 2014 – 9:03 am
Namaste my friends, there is some fresh POW on the mtn so I won’t be here too long but wanted hang out for the opening excitement.
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:05 am
g’morning- gees, the futures are wild this morning- up 50, then down 58, now up 58. Gold extremely volatile too, but what else is new!
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:06 am
@Jeffhok1970: what mountain? where are you? I’m right near Lake Tahoe- we’re getting freshies too-
Jeffhok1970
February 7, 2014 – 9:08 am
I am in Winter Park, CO. Been an epic year. Over 230″ so far this year. Usually we don’t hit 200 until early March
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:11 am
@Jeffhok1970: so lucky for you- here it’s an epic drought- driest winter so far in get this, 500 yrs- we need snow!
Jeffhok1970
February 7, 2014 – 9:13 am
@Turtle108: my friends in SLC are having a fair year. Not sure how all that moisture makes it to Colorado and misses CA and UT? But I ain’t complaining
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:14 am
@Jeffhok1970: we are socked in to high pressure- it’s actually raining/snowing right now- hoping it lasts !!
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:18 am
DJIA cutes now up 80 pts- NAZ up 27- could be a good day.
Jeffhok1970
February 7, 2014 – 9:18 am
So is the jobs #? Bad news = good news? Bad news = more Fed action = good news? Not bad news?
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:20 am
@Jeffhok1970: that’s how I am seeing it- altho it’s a mixed bag – Payrolls in the U.S. rose less than projected in January as retailers cut back after the holidays and government hiring fell. The unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 6.6 percent. The Fed keeps yakin’ about the unemployment rate being what they are watching, and it declined-
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 9:42 am
cody- whats your take on the LNKD qtr?
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 9:50 am
adding back some of the GLD and GDX that I sold.
aaronlurvey
February 7, 2014 – 9:52 am
UBNT guides higher, should re-affirm that cien should see huge uptick in networking infrastructure demand.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 9:53 am
@aaronlurvey: good pick up there on the connection
aaronlurvey
February 7, 2014 – 9:55 am
thanks
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 9:56 am
@eryba1: just a suggestion, far be it for me to tell you what to do-
I would split my $$ between GDX and GDXJ-
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 9:59 am
@Turtle108: gdxj No yiueld, GDX small yield, GDXJ invests in miners where 50% of revenue comes from gold vs GDX 80% of revenue comes from gold
joe.evicel
February 7, 2014 – 10:42 am
What do you guys think of $SCTY right now at $68.50 ?
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 10:53 am
@joe.evicel: when R earnings? also this market is up against resistance already QQQ at 86.5 S&P at 1780 ish aapl at 520. This I took a defensive position. I am trimming some stocks and added back my gold and then some earlier today
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 10:55 am
LOVE the MOVE in FB
drefleury
February 7, 2014 – 10:55 am
@Jeffhok1970: I’ll be in WP the second weekend in March, but we’re going to Park City next week! I hope the snow starts falling there! It’s been mediocre for several years out there.
jahmon
February 7, 2014 – 11:03 am
FB is Beasting.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 11:04 am
@jahmon: now go and sell some!
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 11:11 am
@joe.evicel: SolarCity to Report Q4 2013 Earnings on Monday February 24, 2014; After the Market Close Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/14/01/4249421/solarcity-to-report-q4-2013-earnings-on-monday-february-24-2014-after-th#ixzz2seZGZeQy
MikeM
February 7, 2014 – 11:14 am
@eryba1: I trimmed some more AMZN earlier and am trimming some more FB here
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 11:17 am
@MikeM: SMART!! We have seen this market get UGLY and thats when its time to buy, Do we know THE BOTTOM IS IN? NO WAY, have cash sell rips buy dips until this market shows enough support to build from. Just trim as cody has been doing and stating we should follow suit.
MikeM
February 7, 2014 – 11:25 am
@eryba1: Agreed. I am heeding Cody’s insight regarding the potential for an even uglier nearer term downtrend. I added back a little VXX earlier today also. Will add more VXX today possibly but watching the markets.
jahmon
February 7, 2014 – 11:29 am
I sold the rest of my $52.50 FB calls for over 400% profit! Wish there were more like that!
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 11:30 am
@jahmon: awesome returns there!!
joe.evicel
February 7, 2014 – 11:30 am
@jahmon: nice
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 11:31 am
@MikeM: I am adding gold as my fear vix like hedge. I sold it when fear gauge was 12 this week added to amzn fb goog aapl and now they are up nicely and I am trimming those and buying back the gold.
doug.sekula
February 7, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@eryba1: GDX at these levels ok? For a first tranche? Heavy in cash now. Been selling tranches of FB between 62-63. Did buy some spec HEMP plays. Small amount. Wanted to throw some in AMZN and XONE. Too late? Will market pull back further??
doug.sekula
February 7, 2014 – 12:11 pm
Have nothing but FB HEMP CASH
doug.sekula
February 7, 2014 – 12:13 pm
Also TQNT that I bought for an earnings play which I sold down at that 10% pop
jahmon
February 7, 2014 – 12:23 pm
Momos mashing today
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 12:27 pm
@doug.sekula: I am buying GDX and gld at 121 handle and 23 on gdx as a hedge. I am also trimming names AAPL GOOG AMZN FB CIEN to have extra cash after this bounce. Seems market now happier a bit dip buyers adding as we chance S&P 1800 which then I will do another round of selling if we get there. 1800 if we get there already hearing from many will be HEAVY resistance that is also the cody playbook 2-3% pop from lows then 3-5% decline to test old lows just seen S&P 1730 or make new ones 1700.
Banjoman
February 7, 2014 – 12:28 pm
@eryba1: whats your cash percentage moving forward for the short term?
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 12:30 pm
I was thinkin of buying some aapl puts because i dont see us climbing through 1800 either on the spx… Onky thing that worries me… Seems like we a
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 12:30 pm
l agree
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@Banjoman: I look at my hedge as a cash position as well. As opposed to having that $$ as cash I use it as an indirect hedge so I am at 35% cash and hedge
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 12:35 pm
@doug.sekula: xone and 3d sector may be dead money for a bit after DDD. AMZN was 337 -340 this week now at 355 I am a seller here myself would buy back at 340 or under.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 12:40 pm
What I dont like is OUR rally and the fact that the 10yr yield is down 1.5% yielding 2.662, most sectors in the green. I think this an oversold bounce until it captures the 50 day avg on the upside with volume and follow through days. Until then all rallies are suspect.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 12:45 pm
I read all sorts of TA from many people and too many saying this same thing- will it come to fruition or is it a FLIP it scenario? Cody thinks same thing in 2-3% pop then 3-5% decline. So lets see:
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 12:45 pm
Here it is: The S&P is currently trading above its 100 day moving average. This is a glimmer of hope for the bulls…and if investors find a way to shrug off the miserable jobs report, perhaps the market will return to its former glory. Nevertheless, we believe the odds suggest otherwise. Markets don’t move in straight lines, so this counter-trend move shouldn’t come as a surprise. Until we see a close above 1800 we’ll continue to work on the premise of a weak market. Don’t forget, the January barometer doesn’t paint a rosy picture of the equity markets and February is one of the weakest months of the year on a seasonal basis…so there might be more pain to come. Remain cautious.
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 12:49 pm
@cody any stocks looking like good short opps? We kinda missed hedging this last downturn anything look vulnerable?
carl
February 7, 2014 – 1:00 pm
@cody Why do you like Exone and stratysis?
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@eryba1: bought some nxpi has done great may get a boost being in aapls next phone leader in NFC tech may be worth a look
rkumar
February 7, 2014 – 1:15 pm
I bot small xone ssys today
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 1:19 pm
gold stks are very strong today- some of the jrs i follow are really moving- DGC.to – MUX- MDW- SSRI- PVG-
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 1:21 pm
Shorted some apol
JSmith
February 7, 2014 – 1:27 pm
@jakef1111: short Apple. Bold move
JSmith
February 7, 2014 – 1:28 pm
Never mind, APOL I see now
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 1:39 pm
@jakef1111: I noticed last week that APOL was way overbought and added some puts.
MikeM
February 7, 2014 – 1:39 pm
Adding a little more VXX here
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 1:40 pm
I need a late AAPL surge to push my $52.5 calls into the money before they expire tonight can anyone help a brother out and get on the bid?
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 1:44 pm
@JSmith: i bought a put on aapl its around resistance and so is the market…. If the market turns lower and it remains strong i will cover but for now trying to be hedged
JSmith
February 7, 2014 – 1:46 pm
If Apple keeps making money hand over fist like they do now…and keeps buying back shares because the market thinks they don’t deserve a higher value…what year will Apple be able to buy back most of their shares?
JSmith
February 7, 2014 – 1:53 pm
Simply plowing new earned money into share buy backs…while still sitting on piles of money?
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 1:54 pm
@jakef1111: nxpi chart looks great
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 2:11 pm
@eryba1: and it announced ER did well the reaction was good i think Nxpi is a good add on a pullback
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 2:20 pm
@JSmith: Would’t a buyback also have a positive effect on div yeild?
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:21 pm
@msamuels2000: More so on EPS as less shares outstanding
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:21 pm
anyone else trimming or adding? if so what?
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 2:21 pm
gotcha thanks
JSmith
February 7, 2014 – 2:29 pm
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:30 pm
@JSmith: apple nowhere near the growth of google
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 2:40 pm
@eryba1: aapl has the law of large #s problem… But like cody said in two yrs if the earn 70$ per share it will be 1000
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:41 pm
@jakef1111: very well could be, lets just keep buying dips and selling rips, we all know nothing goes up in a straight line and we get multiple opportunities to get back in.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:43 pm
@jakef1111: the higher this market goes on this bounce the more I am trimming. PLUS nice move in GDX and GLD today
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:43 pm
near 45-50% cash and hedge now
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 2:44 pm
@eryba1: trimming across the board?
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:50 pm
@msamuels2000: yes
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:50 pm
nice move in GDX in regards to its vol as well as we enter the last 69 min of trading week
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 2:52 pm
@eryba1: me too i trimmed crm nxpi sndk and aapl.. Shorted some aapl with a tight stop apol common ans spxw puts… If we fade and go down im gonna ride the downside if we stabilize and hang around resis i will cover
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 2:55 pm
@eryba1: agree 100% with your moves- gold looking really good here- hoping it crosses over 1270 and stays-
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:55 pm
@jakef1111: good plan now just stick to it.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:56 pm
@Turtle108: 1270 has been ceiling of late but more times we hit it the more likely we are to break it and rise higher
jakef1111
February 7, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@eryba1: funny the naz dow and s&p hitting resis today and fading im looking at 1770 first for the s&p i hope im forced to cover there
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 2:59 pm
@jakef1111: that may come next week if it plays out that way.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:00 pm
@Turtle108: Gold head and shoulders formation on the GLD Head being 115 and 2 shoulders being 122, lets see it break 122 on volume and follow through days
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:07 pm
@Turtle108: Odd to see gold and the GDX up as much as they are with a market UP 155.
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 3:13 pm
@eryba1: bad employment data today will lead to tapering slowdown plus CBO calculating that O-care will throw another 2.8 million into the ranks of the non-working.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:15 pm
@msamuels2000: yes heard that today, with this slower jobs # not sure why fed took 10 more off table than usual 10, either way we want QE over and done with and want earnings and the economy = patient to walk and the run on its won healthy no more drugs thur stock picking bets runners / healthy stocks is the key.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:17 pm
wow I butchered that last post
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 3:19 pm
@eryba1: No worries I got it…I hope to live to see the day when the wizzards of oz stop pushing buttons and pulling levers and come out from behind the curtain but there is no indication of that happening and history tells me this doesn’t end well.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:26 pm
@msamuels2000: I just want to see our picks rise in a stair step pattern over time and perform better than the averages and over time we are rewarded for sticking with them
MikeM
February 7, 2014 – 3:38 pm
I have been watching NFLX of late. Put in order earlier today to initiate short position at $430 and that has executed. Will watch where it goes from here, but I don’t see it holding these levels
MikeM
February 7, 2014 – 3:46 pm
@eryba1: U at all considering or would you consider a qqq short here?
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:48 pm
@MikeM: I am comfortable where I am cash and gold hedge, we could see a POP on monday as well as weekend investors feel safer to put some back in after and may be rt the all clear sign is on, I am not 100% sure of that but we seem to want to close at 1800 today so I like where I have cash, stocks and gold no need for me to PRESS an unknown.
MikeM
February 7, 2014 – 3:55 pm
@eryba1: Thanks. I will keep powder dry on QQQ for now. I think you could be right about possible pop on Monday.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:56 pm
@MikeM: I dont want to feel anxious about a small added hedge if we see a weak open for one reason or another. Yes we now have stocks, gold or other as a hedge and plenty of dry powder. a nice setup for a monday open of which we do not know may lean what way due to what factors.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 3:58 pm
If it pops I will sell more, if it drops I believe Gold will do its thing and have cash for more buys at some point, I have already started making my shopping list which others should do as well. I added NFLX, AKAM, YELP to my usual goog, FB aapl, amzn items to restock up on at certain levels we saw this week if we get there again.
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 3:59 pm
In the spiirit of Flipping IT, I actually bought som VIX puts earlier in the week thinking things might settle down after earnings season. I realize now I am on an island here at TWC with that move
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 4:00 pm
here is another POV from a technical analyst just now. $SPX definitely looks better after clearing the “symmetry” hurdle at the 1773.24 area, but there are still reasons to watch for a possible failure somewhere below the 1/15 high. Maybe it won’t fail…maybe it goes to target at the 1881.55 area…but because price is still below the 50 SMA along with the fact that the last high was made on top of a key monthly extension, I want to remain very aware of the hurdles on the way up…These are the major ones on the daily chart.
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:11 pm
Great day for LNN today and good looking chart
SamsaricSufferer
February 7, 2014 – 4:11 pm
@msamuels2000: I bought some VIX puts as well on 2/5. Got a double. They are short dated strikes though, 2/15 expiry. I will be out of them Monday. …..”hogs get slaughtered” as they say.
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:12 pm
LNN $92+ at close- anyone know what happened?
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:13 pm
@SamsaricSufferer: nice! I have Mar 15s
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:14 pm
@Olivepetunia: For LNN News: 13G Filing from Shapiro Capital on Lindsay Corp. Shows New 10.6% Stake
SamsaricSufferer
February 7, 2014 – 4:23 pm
@Olivepetunia: LNN has had increasing analyst interests and positive mentions for same reason Cody added it to the port. It also has a low float at less than 13M shares which exaggerates price moves (both ways). Recent share buy back and dividend increase announced last month. A confluence of factors It looks like.
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:24 pm
@msamuels2000: Interesting – was this announced right before the close?
SamsaricSufferer
February 7, 2014 – 4:27 pm
@msamuels2000: what news feed or feeds do you follow? @Olivepetunia: low float magnifies a move on news like that.
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:29 pm
@SamsaricSufferer: All that makes sense; I just wondered what precipitated the spike in activity a few minutes before the close. Not following news feeds. Have enough trouble multi tasking as it is.
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:30 pm
@Olivepetunia: Hit my TD Ameritrade ticker at 4:56 on Jan 7 (which even by Eastern time is in the future). Don’t see it on Yahoo. Maybe it leaked out too soon
SamsaricSufferer
February 7, 2014 – 4:34 pm
@Olivepetunia: I get that. I am at work most trading days and cannot stay glued to the markets nor would I want to.
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:34 pm
@msamuels2000: subtract one hour: Maybe TD Ameritrade is still on (or anticipating) daylight savings time
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:34 pm
yep must have released the news at 3:56 not 4:56 which corresponds with the spike
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:35 pm
@msamuels2000: Back to $88. Let’s see what Monday brings. Either way it should be good news.
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:38 pm
@Olivepetunia: a bit fishy on the timing and move almost as though it was planned
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:48 pm
@msamuels2000: do you know where to get a good intraday chart with volume? I know I’ve seen them but can’t remember where. Would be interesting to see how much volume crossed in the final few minutes.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 4:49 pm
@Olivepetunia: could be drought in the west which is codys reason for this stock, also water as a commodity.
Olivepetunia
February 7, 2014 – 4:52 pm
@eryba1: That’s another positive factor, but the drought didn’t suddenly become hot news at 3:45 today.
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 4:53 pm
@Olivepetunia: that spike was something we wont be sure of from now if no specific news.
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:54 pm
@Olivepetunia: 195K vol for the day with about 50K coming in the last 4 min and about 5K right before the news at 3:50
msamuels2000
February 7, 2014 – 4:55 pm
actually that prophetic 5k came at 3:54
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 6:44 pm
@eryba1: just back. The best gold rallies happen when the gold stks move up with the Dow- at least in my experience, these can be barn burner days!! I expect/hope for lots more days like this-
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 6:45 pm
@Turtle108: I see mdw did quite well today for u!!
eryba1
February 7, 2014 – 6:51 pm
OK GN everyone its been a WILD thrill ride this week, massive fear and now a great V shaped bounce for now into resistance. Lets see where the market wants to go next week. Eco data has not been good and todays job # was taken with a grain of salt as all thought weather was bad that all. Funny a few days ago it was the market that crushed stocks for the same reason. Priced in now at the lows we have seen? Next week should be very interesting to say the least and see if this bounce holds and forms into something more or calls for a retest with a lower low is needed. Enjoy the weekend, rest up and hope u made some sales for those who bought when it was hardesr Fear gayge was at 12 today it ends still fearful at 23. GN
Turtle108
February 7, 2014 – 7:18 pm
@eryba1: my gold pf rocked today, what can i say. I like MDW- they have a small JV (joint venture) with ABX- they are real and in production this year. not sure if I have said this her or not, so forgive me if so- but I have spent time talking to the management at resource shows, and I like them- smart, honest people. I know jr miners are risky, I know way too well- but this correction has been severe and if gold can rally these stks have room to run.
eryba1
February 8, 2014 – 1:51 pm
@Turtle108: enjoy the upside run. as always sell rips and buy dips nothing goes up in a straight line if U R so inclined to do so. I like GDX and GLD chart here after a35% decline for gold last year this year is starting out better.
carl
February 9, 2014 – 5:52 pm
@cody Tried to access your latest trades and got a message that my membership has been cancelled and a request for my email, name. Looks like you have been hacked. Am I wrong.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 7:19 am
yelp deal with yahoo- Stock up near 13% at $101 pre market.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 8:44 am
Its a quiet open for the market averages. A few stocks have some news driving them Yelp deal with yahoo, Apple and its spat with Ichan over its excess capital. Gld and gdx opening a bit positive as well. $1270 has been a ceiling for gold lets see if it continues to be so or breaks above. Many are calling for a retest of the lows, Cody outlined this bounce and now lets see if his 3-5% pullback scenario after the bounce plays out. Have some cash on hand.
Banjoman
February 10, 2014 – 9:48 am
$BTC down big today
Jeffhok1970
February 10, 2014 – 9:49 am
@Banjoman: how/where to you track $BTC?
Banjoman
February 10, 2014 – 9:53 am
@Jeffhok: I don’t own any $BTC but have been keeping an eye on it on Scutify. There’s an article this morning on Yahoo Finance….
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 10:00 am
@eryba1: g’morning- I know that anything is possible in the gold mkt- we could for sure have a retest of the lows- but I am thinking we’re going the other way- the strength in the mining stks is hard to deny-
dannychan1
February 10, 2014 – 10:04 am
@eryba1: gm, what do u think of EMC at these levels?
msamuels2000
February 10, 2014 – 10:06 am
@eryba1: GDX at the top of it’s resistance and 50 day. At what price would you be a buyer?
Bill
February 10, 2014 – 10:07 am
@carl: Your subscription payment didn’t go through. I’m going to email you via support@tradingwithcody.com to help get this resolved.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:09 am
@dannychan1: emc- dont like it CIEN insted
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:10 am
@Turtle108: retest for the maret averages NOT gold, Gold head and shlrds we spoke of fri for GLD
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:11 am
@msamuels2000: gld buyer at 121-122 if U have none add some, I think A head and shldrs bottom is forming and the 122 was the Right side shoulder ad may breakout, lets watch, GDX action today NICE AAPL, NICE ZNGA good-
msamuels2000
February 10, 2014 – 10:14 am
@eryba1: What time frame are you looking at for that h&s formation
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:16 am
@msamuels2000: 122 was the rt shoulder and its now at 123 so breaking higher
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:20 am
@dannychan1: EMC sells U hardware and with MANy companies starting to adopt the cloud they no longer need to BUY hardware year after year which is what EMC sells. NOW, CRM even AMZN has cloud services that people and companies are migrating towards.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:28 am
Turtle: MDW ramping!!!
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:33 am
TOO many bulls and WAY too few bears- http://tickersense.typepad.com/ticker_sense/ just one indicator but out of balance and a flip it perspective needed perhaps.
echan008
February 10, 2014 – 10:35 am
@eryba1: Do you think LNN will dip further? should I sell them?
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:36 am
@echan008: fri end day popped 5% now giving that back. chart still looks good. IF U r ever concerned, have too much, have a nice profit sell some.
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 10:37 am
@eryba1: @Turtle108: NUGT?
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 10:37 am
@eryba1: loving it- any chance you bought any?
also look at DGC.to, or DRGDF on the pinks- 52 week high is $22 – lots of room to run- ATH, $35-
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:37 am
@echan008: No knows the future to say YES it will fall much more and no it will run huge, any news can change the dynamics for a company, a stock, the markets. Sell some on rips higher, buy on pullbacks if things are going well for company, earnings, chart other
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:38 am
@Turtle108: I have not bought any, just happy for U. I like my GDX position basket.
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 10:39 am
@Olivepetunia: NUGT is a wild child- so volatile it’s crazy- you have to pick a good entry point. I am holding some from the low $30’s, but it’s difficult, even for someone like me-
I would buy on a pullback- maybe tomorrow morning? who knows- some of the jrs are flying just as much as NUGT tho-
echan008
February 10, 2014 – 10:40 am
@eryba1: Thanks. bot LNN at 71 handle. not too much. decided to keep it longer.
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 10:40 am
@eryba1: thanks- that is nice of you to say. glad you have GDX- IF IF IF we do manage to get a good gold rally, GDX will fly. I have some in my mom’s acct-
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:41 am
@Turtle108: NUGT is an ETF that trades 3X what the GDX does, strap in there 6 point harness- This one is built to nauseate
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:43 am
@echan008: LNNWas very overbought on its RSI level after friday should find support around 86
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 10:49 am
@eryba1: you got that right!!! on a down day, it’s really a puke-out. Just a suggestion- I really like the royalty cos as a nice way to play the metals. They are safer in the same way that GDX is, you are getting a basket- In a bull mkt, I don’t think you can go wrong, (well, I shouldn’t say that)- with SLW- FNV- RGLD.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:50 am
@Turtle108: lets us see if this turns into a pull market and uptrend for GOLD if it breaks 1270 convincingly and follow through days are seen.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 10:53 am
I am happy with my GLD and GDX hedge. My portfolio is not equipped for NUGT. I am here for growth and NON puke, That was when I was in my 20’s and I puked up too much. I have worked TOO LONG and hard to get to where I am and have promised not to PUKE by buying what is clearly LABELED for ME- “Dont eat from the Pink sheets & dont touch 3-1 leverged ETF’s on the up or down side”
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 10:58 am
@eryba1: very well said! I have a very small position in NUGT- I started buying metals again last June, it’s been a long summer. but I have done my homework on the stks I hold- am part of a group of private investors, we’ve been together since 2001- we have ridden the bull and the corrections- visited mines, resource shows- gotten an edu-me-cation.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:02 am
@Turtle108: best way to learn is see the #’s get into the field and Buy at the right time, its not what you SELL ( mind you selling when things are good and not forced to sell in bad times) its WHEN you buy it thats more important
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 11:05 am
@eryba1: are you watching OHRP? I admit to buying just a small amount- well, back in awhile. gotta keep moving!
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:07 am
@Turtle108: never heard of it, from $1 in 2011 to 14.4 today.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:09 am
@Turtle108: nice find!
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:19 am
@Turtle108: NUHT hi was $2109 sept 5th 2011 and fell to fell to $24 handle. That is insanity.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:19 am
NUGT
jahmon
February 10, 2014 – 11:21 am
I’m in two tranches of OHRP…up 80% on the first and 12% on the second. They may have a blockbuster on their hands. Funny enough, the original producer of Squalamine was Geneara, the first company that I ever invested in…what goes around comes around in this case.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:22 am
@jahmon: enjoy the ride but as always be careful with biotech, never invest too large a % of your portfolio in it. phase 3 is ALWAYS deadly even when phase 1-2 go so well
jakef1111
February 10, 2014 – 11:24 am
@eryba1: r u nuts enough to buy some nugt?
jahmon
February 10, 2014 – 11:27 am
@eryba1 Only about 3% of portfolio in OHRP
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 11:28 am
@Turtle108: @eryba1: Yes, NUGT is a wild ride. Am I crazier than I thought? I have some from a month ago at $29. If this puppy is that leveraged and gold soars why not hold a small position?
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:28 am
@jakef1111: Nuts is the wrong word. Hey U can always take 1K 5K 10K depends what % of your acct that $$ in and invest if you believe as cody does, cramer does and others that a BULL market in GOLD is back and it will see $2000 an ounce again as 1 target to hi, some thunk higher. I have bough GDX and GLD and like the moves so far. I just think if u invest more than a certain % your portfolio swings around WAY to much with a NUGT position of size. When you grow your accounts year after year and get a pretty large portfolio you Despise or rather you do not want to see if SWING wildly that means U R too heavily invested in something and that will through your mind off in regards to how handle the account. U want growth overall vs lets call it flash rises and crashes in your portfolio.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:29 am
@jahmon: 3% sounds VERY reasonable.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:30 am
@Olivepetunia: again all depends on the % value the NUGT position is of your overall acct.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:32 am
something you dont realize is if your ACCT is UP TOO much vs the averages it means U have thrown your acct out of balance as it can EASILY pullback TOO much and that is when it hits U, U R doing something wrong and your portfolio is not balanced properly and diversified. Dont get me wrong on the upside days weeks etc U feel U R on top of the world, on down days U feel like ur portfolio is crashing- not something anyone ever wants to endure.
satishask
February 10, 2014 – 11:33 am
@Olivepetunia: I have NUGT from around 110 dollars and stuck and havent bot any still. In this case you are not at all crazy compared to me. Anyhow keep us updated when you sell, buy NUGT.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:37 am
transports down 1% today not something U want to see more days like today as markets down just a but aside from naz so far. Baltic dry index seems to be finding support at this 1090 levels up today + 5 at 1095.
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 11:41 am
@satishask: Also have some @ $36 – covered writing purchase – trying to get more at a cheaper cost (around $32) but those will likely be called away. I am also short June $25 puts.
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 11:43 am
@satishask: Wow; that is the proverbial falling knife.
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 11:45 am
@eryba1: NUGT is about 3% of total portfolio
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 11:46 am
@Olivepetunia: reasonable
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 12:16 pm
This post on Scutify for LNN: “Derald Muniz – @1nvestor PnF on $LNN with a very nice Asc TT B/O today. ” Can anyone decipher the jargon? PnF? Asc TT B/O? Is this chart lingo?
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 12:17 pm
@Olivepetunia: ask the person who posted that.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 12:20 pm
Nice moves today in AAPL, CIENM, XONE, JNPR GLD, GDX, FSLR, INVN
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 12:50 pm
@eryba1: clicked on “reply to tweet” and nothing happened.
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 12:56 pm
holy cow- I leave for a little while and now you’re all disclosing NUGT positions- LOL. olive, good for you! in at 29- just be careful! NUGT did have a reverse 10-1 split in aug., so that is why the numbers look skewed- I wrestle with myself all the time- for the leveraged part of my pf, do I want jrs. or just NUGT-
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 12:57 pm
@Turtle108: 10-1 that explains it then
MikeM
February 10, 2014 – 1:23 pm
@eryba1: Would you consider a TSLA short here or are you still long TSLA?
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 1:24 pm
@MikeM: funny U ask. I have one manager telling me TSLA is his stock of the week and now cody looking to short it, thats what makes a market. I am not getting in the middle of this one, it has momentum to the upside. I am enjoying todays market and my positions coming into the day
MikeM
February 10, 2014 – 1:35 pm
@eryba1: OK. Thanks. I did not know Cody was referencing shorting it again here. My account has done very well this year so far so I am staying on the sidelines with this one then for now too. Will try and watch Cody’s lead on it here as well.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 1:42 pm
@MikeM: As for LONG tsla No I do not own it anymore.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 1:45 pm
@MikeM: Glad to hear Ur accounts are doing well. Yes with the market averages down 3-5% ytd if U R up a few % that is a GREAT start. If U think about it if U can do 2-3% a MONTH U R on avg going to have an incredible year 24-36% gains and forget about if you compound such returns year after year . I know its HARD to have those gains ALL the time but knowing when to TRY to be ALL in or start adding and selling rips higher is a good start. Thus I dont want to risk things now in a down market today My accounts are doing well from Gold, AAPL, cien and others.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 1:47 pm
cramer chimes in on TSLA now: This morning we heard that China is going to extend subsidies for electronic vehicles. Even though Tesla is in no position to mass-produce Chinese cars, it just doesn’t matter. The thesis is simply too positive not to buy Tesla. Next thing you know, the stock takes out its high, and you have a technical reason to own Tesla. I am sure that right now, Elon Musk has a half-dozen reasons to propel Tesla further into the stratosphere. There is no negative story now that the fire issue has been cleared up. There’s only valuation.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 1:49 pm
o test-drive a Tesla is to own one. If you like to own the stocks of companies that make products you love, then Tesla is golden. It may be the coolest product I have ever brushed up against. Again, I know, that’s a foolish reason to own a stock. Just because you love it, that doesn’t mean it’s flawless. But in this case, the driver experience is a huge positive.
rzepeda
February 10, 2014 – 2:13 pm
Totally BORING question…where are you all stashing cash these days? I need a “safe” place while earning a little yield. My “high yield” money market account (oxymoron) is now .40%
aaronlurvey
February 10, 2014 – 2:13 pm
lending club, but is not very liquid.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 2:14 pm
@rzepeda: http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/savings/savings-results.aspx
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 2:16 pm
@aaronlurvey: http://www.bankrate.com/funnel/savings/savings-results.aspx?prods=37
Olivepetunia
February 10, 2014 – 2:19 pm
@Turtle108: Thank You very much for the info; that explains the “adjusted” options out there. I was wondering about that. It probably also explains the very high historical levels on the chart I was looking at.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 2:31 pm
Recent BITCOIN action of late explained and good read- http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/third-bitcoin-crash-in-three-months-reveals-cryptocurrency-flaws-161929360.html?l=1
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 3:06 pm
@eryba1: congrats on being in OHRP from $1- very nice.
jchuosu
February 10, 2014 – 3:11 pm
who mentioned HEMP the other day? I think we got a nice pullback on it.
msamuels2000
February 10, 2014 – 3:12 pm
@eryba1: I don’t have many hard rules to live by for investing but one that has served well is never bet against the big banks and that includes the central banks interests. My opinion is they will use every tool at their disposal from political to media propaganda to corruption to prevent BTC from becoming legitimate. I like to gamble a bit but BTC seems like entering a rigged poker game
MikeM
February 10, 2014 – 3:18 pm
@eryba1: Your thoughts on the marijuana stocks (HEMP, MJNA)? As jchuosu just pointed out it is a nice pullback in HEMP, but do you see valuation?. I own none of these yet.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 3:21 pm
@Turtle108: I am not in OHRP since 1 I was saying where it came from and where it is today
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 3:22 pm
@MikeM: go watch the HBO show realtime sports online, the segment should be there now. I have MDBX on my screen its WILD havent invested in it myself.
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 3:27 pm
@MikeM: I am not eryba, but I have been trying to do some DD on some cannabis stks- it looks to me like HEMP is just a website? nothing really happening there? not sure what to think of some of the skts- I don’t see a lot of value. I have held CBIS and MNTR in the past-
msamuels2000
February 10, 2014 – 3:29 pm
Per Cody’s suggestion for earnings flips – BIDU chart looks promising into Feb 26 ER
msamuels2000
February 10, 2014 – 3:31 pm
That sounded like BIDU was a Cody suggestion – I didn’t mean to imply that – just looking for attractive ER flip candidates and BIDU looks attractive
MikeM
February 10, 2014 – 3:35 pm
@Turtle108: OK. Thanks
Turtle108
February 10, 2014 – 3:49 pm
@MikeM: PS- i could be wrong- these stks could go to the moon- i do not know.
eryba1
February 10, 2014 – 4:03 pm
foundation forming or calm before the storm- VERY light volume today on a good breadth day. Individual stocks doing their own thing as the market look to all close in the green. We need to give this market some time before we can see where it wants to go. Janet Yellen the new FE chief speaks this week. Lets give this market some room and have some cash on hand. Transports down 1% today while dow up a drop. Gold and the GDX performed well. Have a GN and C u in the morning.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 8:40 am
GMN- Futures are looking positive this morning as we all await the new FED chief Janet Yellen speak today. yield on the 10 yr yo 1% today back above 2.7%. baltic dry index down what it gained yesterday but still holding 1090 level. Gold and gdx up about .5% – 2% respectively. Lets see where we are at the open. Market seems overly skeptical at 1800 level on the S&P based on the equity put-call ratio chimed in at a quite lofty reading of 71% Monday, its highest level since Oct. 8 — when the market hit a low — so it seems to me many folks don’t fully trust the market here, or they see this obvious resistance.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 9:56 am
cody- I am watching your IDEAS stock jdsu and INVN. INVN up 7% yesterday and 12% today on STM dropping both lawsuits and instead collaboration today.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:21 am
tqnt ramping now up 7% news?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:23 am
TQNT up 8.5% on this? http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarahcohen/2014/02/11/under-pressure-from-activist-shareholder-triquint-said-to-tap-goldman-sachs-for-advice/?partner=yahootix
msamuels2000
February 11, 2014 – 10:24 am
@eryba1: they announced some new products this morning that’s all I see
Johan
February 11, 2014 – 10:25 am
@eryba1: do you know why tqnt is ramping big? I am in since Cody included it in the portafolio…
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:25 am
I posted link above for GS advise
Johan
February 11, 2014 – 10:27 am
To tap Goldman Sachs for advice????? What Goldman Sachs’ advices can do for TriQuint Semiconductor???? kidding
carl
February 11, 2014 – 10:28 am
@eryba1 I asked this before. Why does Cody like xone? Is it because of the price drop over the last couple of months?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:33 am
@carl: xone is part of his 3D basket play. As opposed to investing on just one company and hit / miss he invested in the 3 out on the market at the time he put the basket together.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:34 am
@Johan: more like spin off, sell to other company to unlock its value that isnt being priced properly the feel by the market
rkumar
February 11, 2014 – 10:34 am
tqnt up 7 p–any news??
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:34 am
@rkumar: scroll up.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:37 am
is this CLEAR breakout by GOLD, GLD and GDX? gold surpassing that 1275 ceiling? lets see volume and follow through days.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 10:58 am
I will be starting new positions in INVN and JDSU today with cody for a 1st tranche buy.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 11:02 am
@eryba1: lots of volume in the miners today-
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:03 am
@Turtle108: yes breakout perhaps after 30% decline last year worst since 1982 this year gold up 6% before todays move. lets see the close and follow through days to confirm new uptrend.
jakef1111
February 11, 2014 – 11:04 am
Invn up on TWC buy alert?
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 11:04 am
@eryba1: i have been suffering for over 2 yrs now! so ready for this- hoping it is real and lasting- if not, tight stops all around.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:04 am
@jakef1111: NO it was up yest 7% and today 12% before codys alert. I had them on my screen for awhile now
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:05 am
@Turtle108: buy uptrends or good earnings , stories vs ride downtrends U never know where the bottom is
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:05 am
@Turtle108: our capital has to be working for us not against us.
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 11:15 am
Cody and all, what do you make of this growing comparison of the current and 1929 charts?
rkumar
February 11, 2014 – 11:16 am
jdsu went from just don’t sell us–to just don’t sue us—to hopefully just don’t sell us–lol
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:18 am
@jahmon: I have seen that chart about 4-5 months ago. Not so sure how close we are in regards to financials for banks, companies etc. Companies are cash rich refinanced at SUch low rates, banks well capitalized. Although I have looked at this chart its just a pattern until its not. Lets stick to individual stocks, selling rips buying dips in companies who reported good #’s raised guidance, do some hedging with gold and we should be OK baring any geopolitcal events.
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 11:19 am
Currently the cover story on Marketwatch and definitely uncanny
msamuels2000
February 11, 2014 – 11:24 am
INVN=Invensense Not Invision right?
MikeM
February 11, 2014 – 11:24 am
I trimmed some TQNT at $9.10, initiated short position in NQ at $18.25, and am adding to my VXX position here.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:24 am
@msamuels2000: correct INVENSENSE
lfnunnally
February 11, 2014 – 11:34 am
@erbya1: What are your thoughts on AMZN today?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:36 am
@lfnunnally: it hit 337 went to 3600 and now a small pullback, after its bigger correction 405 to 337. I still like it but like other stocks I trimmed after I bot into the decline last week mon tues
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:37 am
@lfnunnally: did U mean something else?
lfnunnally
February 11, 2014 – 11:37 am
@erbya1: Thanks I can’t decide if I want to trim here or buy more.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:37 am
@lfnunnally: depends where U bot.
Jeffhok1970
February 11, 2014 – 11:39 am
I don’t think the 1929 comparison is legitimate. All they are presenting is a graphical comparison; nice picture. What is the statistical relationship and specifically the correlation coefficient. Would like to see some math showing a relationship.
MikeM
February 11, 2014 – 11:49 am
@eryba1: Have you followed RAX at all? Any interst in position here? 17% drop here after yesterdays earnings
jakef1111
February 11, 2014 – 11:49 am
@cody @eryba1 hearing the name Finisar reminded me when i bought it on the ipo day… Im 32 now so you can imagine how young and stupid i was…. The a little bit older wiser version of me looks at the time span from nazz 2k to 5k and sees a lot of similarities to now. I know the proper answer to this question is to invest and adjust to the pitches being thrown but the way the market recently “corrected” and the way its rebounded feels like were on the cusp of the big bubble top.. My question out of all this is how do you prepare for the end of the run.. I think the worlds greatest game show would have a lot of bulls and not many bears left to be scared
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:51 am
@MikeM: lets stick with uptrending stocks, great earnings and beats on EOS and guidance. RAX and EMC are in same biz if not mistaken legacy buy your own hardware and upgrade vs buying into the cloud where U never have to do that again.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:54 am
@Turtle108: To my surprise GOLD and the markets trade side by side in unison up and down and that ONLY broke down in JAN of 2013- http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=spy#symbol=spy;range=5y;compare=gld;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
lfnunnally
February 11, 2014 – 11:57 am
@erbya1: 346 – is the drop a result of Rackspace?
chrismossey
February 11, 2014 – 11:57 am
anyone adding to Gold this week.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:57 am
@chrismossey: this week No las week yes bug time
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:57 am
thats BIG time
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:58 am
Referring to my trades
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 11:58 am
@chrismossey: got codys alert adding / startuing position in JDSU and INVN
chrismossey
February 11, 2014 – 12:00 pm
Is that from today or within the last few days.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:00 pm
@chrismossey: today INVN and JDSU? if so YES!
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:00 pm
Gold breaking out
JeffDaniel
February 11, 2014 – 12:00 pm
Cody, I know your thoughts generally on Chinese stocks but what about Bidu as the Google of China?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:03 pm
goog- chart looks good I can see a breakout here- U guys saw news today on comscore deal / partnership? On route to becoming a network? It can EASILY buy NFL package from directv and its laying down its own fiber. Things are adding up. Needs content of its own? purchase nflx? Hulu? other?
chrismossey
February 11, 2014 – 12:04 pm
buying goog calls today. @eryba1: what about lnkd on weakness?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:05 pm
@chrismossey: I am watching that one. I want to see if find support first
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:10 pm
@chrismossey: LNKD 201-202 tempting but want that foundation / support first. For now would rather be adding CIEN, JDSU, FB, GOOG etc
jakef1111
February 11, 2014 – 12:14 pm
Was thinkin of adding some ssys looks to be at the top of a downtrend channel any thoughts on that?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:15 pm
@jakef1111: I would say wait for support, unless U R so inclined to add a 1st tranche if U have none as its still correcting 20% so far
chrismossey
February 11, 2014 – 12:19 pm
@eryba1: jdsu calls? what % of a position?
JSmith
February 11, 2014 – 12:19 pm
@eryba1: you think now is the time to go long on GLD and GDX?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@chrismossey: jdsu started 1st tranche today
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:21 pm
@JSmith: I have been thinking that and acting that way for a while now, I have a full sized position in gld and gdx added max positions last week
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:22 pm
@JSmith: uptrending now breakout levele on GLD above 122 head and shldrs bottom head 115 shldrs 122, now GOLD 1275 an ounce resistance and today broken, need volume and follow through days to confirm
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 12:24 pm
@chrismossey: for me its always shares no options.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 12:28 pm
@eryba1: we spoke of this last week, that at times the best gold rallies are when the general mkt is going up too-
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 12:29 pm
Interesting conversations today….not a word about an impending 5% drop…all talk of buying common and calls…just saying…
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@chrismossey: some will only buy on support, but others buy the breakout- if i had none, i would be scaling in- i’m pretty concentrated on this gold mkt- eryba, i know, i know, diversify.
i am. but i do have a large position in metals right now-
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 1:06 pm
@jahmon: impending- we are looking to see if that develops- meanwhile small tranches in new positions if one wants to start them today. Gold we have been buying last week on potential breakout in GLD above 122 getting follow through days this week.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 1:07 pm
@jahmon: stocks still running higher after our trims AAPl, GOOG and others still letting those ride after trims.
joe.evicel
February 11, 2014 – 1:12 pm
$Tqnt making another push past that resistance at $9.19
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 1:12 pm
great move in TQNT
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 1:16 pm
@eryba1 I hear you. Just saying…there seems to be a strong urge to buy today, even after the trimming that most of us did in anticipation of Cody’s prediction of a 3-5% drop…
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 1:21 pm
@jahmon: we are reacting to the market news etc. Must stay flexible- We are looking for pullback if we get sideways action for a while in averages yet our stocks move what do U do?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 1:22 pm
@jahmon: U can sit aside and let the rest run, look for breakout in specific names and add, look to start new positions. You have choice to make or not. Some are starting to add with cody on INVN and JDSU, others looking to start or add to their gold which looks to be breaking out
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 1:31 pm
SA article today suggesting INVN as a possible acquisition target http://seekingalpha.com/article/2009831-why-invensense-is-worth-the-premium?source=email_rt_article_readmore&uprof=
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 1:35 pm
Last week this was at 12- today fear greed index at 31, before the decline / correction began we were in the mid 70’s http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/
indiasilver
February 11, 2014 – 2:10 pm
@cody, @eryba1, or anyone else that might have insight into this: I’ve been a sub to TWC for a few months now, have scaled into some of the stocks on Cody’s list, but am lacking on others. Wondering if there is any kind of updating on price points or timing for scaling into the balance of Cody’s portfolio? I have partial positions in FB, CIEN, FF, TQNT, AAPL, FSLR, XONE, CREE, but none of the others.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 2:12 pm
@indiasilver: U need to find your comfort zone. When did U buy into the positions U now have? 1st tranche more less? other where R U in the sense of % invested? in profit taking mode? shopping list for other stocks U want at levels and qty of shares U want?
indiasilver
February 11, 2014 – 2:20 pm
@ eryba: I’m still more than half cash. I’ve got mostly first tranche buys in the stocks I listed earlier. I would like to be more invested, but seem always to be mostly on the side. I’ve spent the last few years doing options strategies with mixed results, so maybe that is why I am so cautious. I do like the concept @cody runs his portfolio by, since I am tech in nature and familiar with it. Ideally I’d like @cody to send out an email or notification with recommendations on buys of specific stocks even if he himself is already fully invested in that name. I do see these from time to time, but have never seen one for Juniper, Sandisk, Lindsay, LNKD, Zynga or AMZN, for example. Just looking for advice on entry points for specific names on the list…
indiasilver
February 11, 2014 – 2:21 pm
I am very happy with the names I am in per @cody’s recommendation. My weakness is not being able to recognize a good time to buy in, so I really value his advise (and yours) on this topic.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 2:27 pm
@indiasilver: Gun shy- I understand, we need to look at each position on a case by case review.When did U buy into your holdings of 1st tranche, at recent hi’s or lows? Do U have access to a stock software? charts moving averages? RSI levels other? Lets use FB as an example. aside from cody buying at 20’s. It recently ran to 59 then pulled back to 51.85 = a near 15% correction in a great growth company. To me that was a buy opportunity. Same with google ran to 1170 corrected to 1080 a 8-9% correction to me another buy. I say BUY as theur earnings were very good growth rate still hi, PE level not expensive on 2015 earnings and thus a correction to buy into.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 2:30 pm
@indiasilver: znga RAN from 3.4 to 4.6 a near 40% rise cody did say he was more inclines to sell than buy. amzn he wanted to see it base out / find support it did so fast at 337 after its 15 % correction. JNPR ran from 18.5 to 28.5.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 2:32 pm
@indiasilver: As for gold we have spoken here for a week or so that a head and shldrs bottom in it at 115 head 122 shldrs may be forming after 30% decline in 2013. Today we are seeing a breakout and need volume and more folow lthrough but seems to be an uptrend forming
indiasilver
February 11, 2014 – 2:48 pm
@eryba1 thanks for these points. I read the chat every day, and have successfully cycled into and out of FB, GOOG and AAPL several times in the last couple of months. I’ve also got a first tranche in GDX. I guess what I am saying is, especially when there are big changes in the market or in specific stocks, it would be nice to get an email that says: Today is a good day to buy a first tranche, second tranche, etc. in these stocks. I see your recommendations all the time, but only get a trade alert from @cody every couple of weeks. Your analysis is always very technical in nature and makes lots of sense. I follow most of your calls, but in the longer term I’d like to get a little more hard and fast guidance from Cody, since I’m paying for this service.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 2:53 pm
@indiasilver: the weekly chat is a great places to dig deeper onto codys thoughts with what the market is doing. Cody does send out when is a good time to buy a first tranche or add a tranche. Such as last week the XONE add a tranche at 40 or under. On stocks that have RUn like FB he stated it was wise to sell at 62-63 to take some off after the nice run after earnings.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 2:57 pm
@eryba1: the gold stks I follow are soaring- it looks like it is intensifying into the closing hour, which is always a good sign if it lasts-
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 2:58 pm
@Turtle108: The Gold Sector Loves Yellen — For Now Anyway- http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2014/02/11/the-gold-sector-loves-yellen-for-now-anyway/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
msamuels2000
February 11, 2014 – 3:01 pm
@Turtle108: I haven’t been watching my Glencore position that closely since it a hedge but you made me check the chart and sure enough it broke through resistance as well a few days ago.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 3:09 pm
gotta love the Yellen rally.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:20 pm
@Turtle108: question is do we let it now ride or stick to motto sell rips buy dips.
indiasilver
February 11, 2014 – 3:24 pm
@eryba1: Thanks for the advice. I guess I need to lurk less and ask more questions on specific buys and trims as they arise. I really appreciate the info you put out so freely. I’ve had some nice returns by following moves you’ve posted here.
lfnunnally
February 11, 2014 – 3:27 pm
erbya1: would you buy TQNT now?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:28 pm
@indiasilver: enjoy- This is developing into a very good forum of info, questions, learning, actionable investments, timely buys and sells, and a good place to learn when to take action and when not to.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:28 pm
@lfnunnally: no
drefleury
February 11, 2014 – 3:29 pm
@eryba1: What’s AAPL’s resistance?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:29 pm
@lfnunnally: we ALL had PLENTY of time to buy it after earnings at 7.8-8 now at 9.4 20% + higher, time to move on to soemthing else if U missed it until we get more news. Easier sell here than a buy
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:29 pm
@drefleury: next level after 525 broke to upside is 541-545
drefleury
February 11, 2014 – 3:30 pm
Thx
lfnunnally
February 11, 2014 – 3:31 pm
erbya1: Thank you – I had it and sold with a small gain before the bounce. By the way, you have done a GREAT JOB monitoring and advising – thank you!
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:33 pm
@lfnunnally: hope everyone is prospering both intellectually and financially.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 3:34 pm
@eryba1: I’m holding here- hoping it’s just the beginning of a long run- but nothing wrong with selling a few shs ! I’m watching for the close, like to see strength into it-
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:36 pm
@Turtle108: volume already greater than avg and gld building on yesterdays gains and volume as well. The close it is then.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:39 pm
another perspective on the multi day upside:” Candidly, I didn’t believe the optimism could transpire so quickly. But the three-fold combination of a steady, hang-in Yellen, a later date for Obamacare and an apparent possibility of a debt agreement are bring a happy-days-are-here-again perspective that is infecting all!”
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 3:39 pm
@eryba1: I see that, was just looking around- it seems like strength like this builds, it doesn’t just go away. The miners are leading the metal for now. I’m so glad you’re in on this run- great to chat about it, you have so much discipline and knowledge, appreciate the back and forth.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:41 pm
@Turtle108: yes it can be just starting and should attract buyers on pullbacks. exchange of dialogue helps everyone, myself included.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 3:44 pm
i look at NUGT as a microcosm of the whole metal world- it is 3x’s leveraged, so it amplifies all moves, up or down- so right this minute it’s up 11%- let’s see where it closes, just for fun.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:46 pm
@Turtle108: YTD NUGT is up 50%
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 3:55 pm
@eryba1:
almost impossible to stay on board tho, you gotta have real conviction to handle the swings.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 3:58 pm
@Turtle108: anything 3 X avg is well, IMO should not be in this market too dangerous, but thats for another time and place as those 3 X leveraged such as SDS and others affect the S&P avg and skew things and when U get panic and people drive the SDS they can totally affect the S&P in an unnatural way.
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 4:00 pm
@eryba1: you’re so right- i have a very small position in NUGT-
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 4:00 pm
some of the jr miners are doing just as well as NUGT-
Turtle108
February 11, 2014 – 4:01 pm
ok- NUGT up over 11%, it held those gains. see you tomorrow!
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 4:23 pm
The V shaped rally continues. After the 6% decline in the S&P we have now almost regained all of what was lost in a straight line up. The S&P has regained its 50 day moving avg same as the qqq. Fear gauge was at 12 last week and now back at 30. The oscillator should see 120+ today the more + side #’s confirms we are in an uptrend. Gold saw very good volume in the GLD and GDX and it seems an uptrend is now at hand after todays. Individual stocks are performing VERY well. From the new closing hi’s on GOOG, FB, great news taken by the street on TQNT up 11.4% on HEAVY volume. The yield on the 10 year is now over 2.7 % at 2.719. Apple 10% correction from 550 to 500 is now back at 536. Lets watch individual stocks as a breakout seems forming in FB and GOOG for now and whose RSI has room to r
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 4:54 pm
room to run.
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 5:12 pm
Cody, have your changed your take on a 3-5% pullback here?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 5:19 pm
Cramer chimes on on what has happened in the markets the past few days. In Jan I thought there could easily be a gov shutdown over the debit ceiling causing a market correction. We clearly had a market pullback 6% on avg and 10-30% in stocks. Now something has happened:
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 5:19 pm
Yes, something big changed. Something huge. Three things: It looks like we will not have a government shutdown over the debt ceiling. 2. Obamacare is not going to shut down as much small business creation as we thought because it is being delayed. 3. Janet Yellen is going to keep the Fed on a subjective path. She is not going to be dogmatic or ideological. She will be pragmatic. Forty-eight hours ago we didn’t know all of this. In fact, many people felt that there could be another nasty debt-ceiling battle, including me. Now we have a situation where many stocks — the retailers, the banks, and others that seemed to be breaking down — are coming back. The stuff that did the worst yesterday is reversing. Is it too good to be true?
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 5:21 pm
This is what I had thought in jan 2014″ In Jan I thought there could easily be a gov shutdown over the debit ceiling causing a market correction. We clearly had a market pullback 6% on avg and 10-30% in stocks.” Starting from the YES part that is a quote from Cramers POV just now- Look, any time you can get Washington out of the picture we can go higher. All of the big selloffs these last three years since the Great Recession definitively ended have come directly or indirectly out of Washington. When you take Washington off the table you get a chance to rally. When you decide the data were truly corrupted and made things weaker, you can get retail to move. When you give the yield curve some inflection, you can get the banks to move.
eryba1
February 11, 2014 – 5:21 pm
All of these good things are happening at a time when many got short betting we had to go down 10%. We didn’t. The negativity is now thick because so many people switched directions and got negative, even though the data and the Washington background just went positive. The facts have changed. The facts are what matter.
Musa
February 11, 2014 – 7:08 pm
Back to making money on stocks easily. We can all sleep good now
jahmon
February 11, 2014 – 7:17 pm
@eryba1 Appreciate the analysis…We will get Cody’s take tomorrow to add to the consideration soup. Last time Cody called for a big pullback I lost money by trimming heavily in anticipation…looks like history may be repeating itself here.
jakef1111
February 12, 2014 – 12:34 am
@eryba1: dnt forget the china data overnight… Things r shaping up for rally on mode… Maybe we hit nazz 5k before we see that real correction. But i think we should be looking for that blow off top like we look for that big time bottom washout we need to see a desperation buying top to change our perspective and get a real correction
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 6:42 am
@jakef1111: china data was better than expected. Today EU up’s their GDP expectations, big pullback? we had one and then a retest is STILL expected by many but that doesnt mean it happens tomorrow. Sometimes the decline / retest doenst happen for weeks. Right now lets see how our individual stocks act and at this pace more days like the past few will get us VERY overbought, fear gauge to see 60’s-70’s and it will be time to sell once more. Lets watch and see.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 6:43 am
Amazon to hire 2,500 new workers across US- http://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-hire-2-500-workers-050237296.html
dannychan1
February 12, 2014 – 7:52 am
@eryba1: do u recommend entering in amzn at these levels? How far do u think this rally can last?
dannychan1
February 12, 2014 – 8:02 am
@eryba1: I read Cody’s article on trenching into jdsu and invn, at the current levels do you think we should wait for a market correction before tranching in? Like you said, the market is moving to the over bought levels, what determines the right timing?
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 8:18 am
@dannychan1: great questions- 1st amazon if you have none Yes I would say use the decline from 404 and today near 2% decline in pre market if it holds into the open to add some if you have none.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 8:24 am
@dannychan1: As for JDSU and INVN- As there is NO WAY to time things exactly codys approach has been to ease into things buy buying some now and waiitmng and hoping we see some further pullback to add more. It is near impossible to say I want to buy all rt here rt now, that would be unwise. Another approach would be to find uptrending stocks and charts and add to them at pullbacks or certain formations that can lead to moves higher. As for waiting for a market correction,
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 8:24 am
we are on some gauges neutral, mac oscillator in an uptrend, max over bought only next week, fear gauge is still fearful albeit less was 12 now 30. I bought a 1st tranche in JDSU and INVN to test the waters so to speak. If china after closing all of china for the LUNAR new year reopens with good data like last night we can see a further rise in stocks into next week where we will one again need to sell rips higher and wait for a pullback I look forward to seeing the nasdaq oscillator go from the MOST oversold in 2 years as of last week NAS when it hit 3968 to getting overbought sometime next week.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 8:25 am
Amazon downgraded at UBS FEB 12, 2014 | 7:28 AM EST AMZN was downgraded to Neutral from Buy, according to UBS. Driven by surprise deceleration in revenue and paid unit growth trends Also, proprietary survey indicated that raising amazon prime price would result in drop of renewals. $375 price target.
dannychan1
February 12, 2014 – 8:34 am
@eryba1: thanks for the insightful response.. Does the downgrade in amzn by UBS change your view about amzn?
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 8:50 am
@dannychan1: no, I think It is still the main go to web provider for goods and taking market share and mind share as well. that does not mean if the stock does not perform well or acts badly I ***** blindly stay with it. It needs to find support and start to advance as it had done and this pullback is just that for now.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 9:08 am
Home Depot plans 80,000 new Spring hires, Amazon to hire 2,500 new workers across US – economy still moving forward
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 9:12 am
Yelp estimates, target increased at JP Morgan FEB 12, 2014 | 8:08 AM EST YELP esitmates were raised through 2015, JP Morgan said. Growth is accelerating in the company’s oldest markets. Buy rating and nwe $110 price target.
Turtle108
February 12, 2014 – 9:19 am
@eryba1: g’morning. excellent piece you wrote at the close yesterday-
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 9:21 am
@Turtle108: to be clear it was a collaboration of thoughts and comments some my own some quotes from cramer.
Turtle108
February 12, 2014 – 9:22 am
@eryba1: yes, well, it was good even with Cramer quotes-
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 9:23 am
@Turtle108: Thank u
Benb
February 12, 2014 – 9:51 am
Market still in rally mode, possibly to new all time highs. That pullback was totally buyable as it spooked out the bulls who had gotten to long too late. CMG, nflx still remain my favorites
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 9:53 am
@Benb: hindsight is 20/20, it was oversold but kept falling so the hardest trade was to add, it has been rewarding in specific names to have bought S&p at or around 1740
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 10:09 am
amazon down 2.6% on the downgrade they based a poll on if people would ante up for higher priced amazon prime service from 79 to 99 or 119 a year. I am a prime member for quite a few years. The price has been 79 a year for 9 years so a price hike of 20-40 will for me not change my member status in anyway. It is steal a bargain price to pay for what they offer. Netflix is 7 a month for JUST movies, so why not $8.25 or $10 a month for 2nd day air shipping for MANY many items AND movies.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 10:12 am
I should say 2nd day air shipping at no added expense a free shipment for the price of your early membership for any and all your prime shipments.
Banjoman
February 12, 2014 – 10:17 am
@eryba1 – on the surface, a 20% increase sounds high, but I would reason that most Prime subscribers won’t notice a difference of $3-$5 / month extra for such a value packed service.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 10:18 am
@Banjoman: yes % wise it sounds like a lot but the starting point of the 20% at $79 is a reasonable starting point that hasnt moved in 9 years.
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:13 am
guys ,
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:13 am
watch ibb up 13 p for year–leads nazz
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 11:14 am
@rkumar: biotech has been great in REGN GILD BIIB and CELG the 4 leaders!!
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:14 am
ibb overpriced–its bubblicious
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:14 am
and biotechs in qqq
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:15 am
aapl beautidul outperformance–so ahted—bullish
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 11:15 am
@rkumar: overpriced? charts look good. these are the new drug companies of the next century.
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:16 am
ibb –its a bubble my firiend
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:16 am
the generalists hdge funds own ibb stocks–they have no more significant growth–buy bubbles always go farther than thought possible
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 11:18 am
Baltic dry index dropped abut today still seems to be wanting to base at these levels 1090 range. Nice rise in 10 yr yield to 2.768. FB goog holding on for the most part to yesterdays gains, AAPL gaining attention, talk of new product(s) soon that are a game changer, ichan backed off for a reason? I added some today.
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:19 am
any idea how zuckerberg is going to monetize instagram app??
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 11:22 am
@rkumar: here are some ideas- http://monetizepros.com/blog/2013/30-ways-to-make-money-with-instagram/
rkumar
February 12, 2014 – 11:33 am
thx
jahmon
February 12, 2014 – 12:28 pm
REGN will crash and burn if Squalamine has the phase II results that many people think it will have
jahmon
February 12, 2014 – 12:43 pm
May be a good entry point for FEYE?
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 1:01 pm
In light of the uptrend and positive action in many stocks and averages the markets are acting quite healthy today giving some back on light volume so far. The yellow metal is up a bit today as the GDX which has ramped is down 1% AAPL and FB are near UNCH and select names are acting fine. We want to see some digestion of the move higher. Amazon and LNKD in are the only weak stocks today. TQNT was bound to give some back after an 11% gain and down 1.7% today is a positive.
jakef1111
February 12, 2014 – 1:43 pm
@eryba1: buying any amzn?
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 1:44 pm
@jakef1111: not yet, just some aapl today, want to see amzn see if it wants to retest 337- 340 to form W bottom,
nimsri
February 12, 2014 – 1:48 pm
@jahmon ,Zacks rates it a buyhttp://www.zacks.com/stock/news/122859/will-fireeye-feye-continue-to-surge-higher
Cody
February 12, 2014 – 1:53 pm
Come meet me right now this week’s Live Q&A Chat at http://tradingwithcody.com.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 3:28 pm
nice move in ZNGA so far 6% rise into the close 30 min left with volume.
Olivepetunia
February 12, 2014 – 4:04 pm
LNN – again a price spike right into the close – with volume.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 4:11 pm
Today the market traded sideways digesting the 4 straight up days on a Low volume consolidation move in the averages. Gold Miners cooled off as they came in on a HOT streak coming in. AMZN and LNKD got beaten down off a downgrade on one and the other looking for support. The debit ceiling talks seem to have found a way to pass w/o a gov shutdown. Fear green index stayed at 30. Lets see what the market has in store for us tomorrow and how our individual stocks perform. Csco reports and as is always the case its all about the CC. Have a GN and C u in the morning.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 5:15 pm
NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Zynga (ZNGA_) closed Wednesday’s session higher after SoftBank, Japan’s third-largest telecom, reported a 0.8% passive stake in the internet gaming company. By market close, shares had added 3.7% to $4.80. Trading volume of 66.7 million was more than double its three-month average daily volume of 29.8 million.
eryba1
February 12, 2014 – 5:15 pm
Znga avg vol 26M today 73.5M
jahmon
February 12, 2014 – 6:12 pm
Bloomberg: New Apple TV set-top on tap, TWC talks ongoing – Would you look at that…Apple is in talks with TWC? You selling, Cody? lol
