Subscriber Chat Room Archive (January 16th – January 22nd)
Here is the past week’s discussion from the TradingWithCody.com Subscriber Chat Room:
Jeffhok1970
January 16, 2014 – 10:03 am
Good morning brilliant investors.
Jeffhok1970
January 16, 2014 – 10:03 am
not sure if this is the right thing to do or not but I am going to buy some ZNGA this morning.
Turtle108
January 16, 2014 – 10:12 am
good morning- it’s funny, some days i do feel smart, others, very not smart. never brilliant-
but today I have a new one for you- PEIX- ” Pacific Ethanol, Inc. produces and markets low carbon renewable fuels in the United States” – i bought a small position. something besides my usual metal.
Olivepetunia
January 16, 2014 – 11:37 am
@Turtle108: Be careful; I had this some years ago from some other adviser and it didn’t turn out well.
Turtle108
January 16, 2014 – 11:41 am
@Olivepetunia: thanks Olive- I’ve been following it and GPRE- 2 ethanol stks- I think a lot of the price depends on the price of corn- so that needs to be watched- appreciate the warning-
Olivepetunia
January 16, 2014 – 11:43 am
@Turtle108: There may also be government subsidies involved not to mention government regulation and mandated usage, etc.
Turtle108
January 16, 2014 – 12:31 pm
@Olivepetunia: do you know Keith Schaefer- he writes OGIB- he’s been pounding the table for it-
Olivepetunia
January 16, 2014 – 2:15 pm
@Turtle108: Is that http://www.ogib.biz/??
Olivepetunia
January 16, 2014 – 2:17 pm
@Turtle108: Found it: http://www.oilandgas-investments.com
jahmon
January 16, 2014 – 3:08 pm
So one analyst says Zynga will go down and boom 11%?
jahmon
January 16, 2014 – 7:19 pm
Here comes TQNT !!
JSmith
January 17, 2014 – 8:04 am
http://www.flickr.com/photos/40174455@N00/sets/72157639843977186/page2/
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 8:08 am
@JSmith: nice post, of course all the over night tweets were no one is showing up. It is the most manipulated stock there is.
JSmith
January 17, 2014 – 8:17 am
@chrismossey: yeah, I am sure people had appointments for yesterday. Isn’t that the point of preorders, to create “muted” lines and chaos. As usual, the media spins it the way people with money want it.
JSmith
January 17, 2014 – 8:18 am
Less chaos that is.
JSmith
January 17, 2014 – 9:12 am
http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2014/01/17/iphone-apple-china-mobile/?source=yahoo_quote
Turtle108
January 17, 2014 – 9:19 am
looks like another good day for metals and the stks- anyone of you been buying any?
msamuels2000
January 17, 2014 – 9:54 am
INTC leap taking a hit – all in all the report was not bad. PC market stabilized and revenues beat…if mobile products can get any traction at all this might be a decent buying opp
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 10:27 am
adding my second tranche to gdx and also per someones tip here earlier in the week adding a tranche of gdxj.
doug.sekula
January 17, 2014 – 10:37 am
I hope AAPL reports great numbers. I’m loaded for bear
doug.sekula
January 17, 2014 – 10:38 am
Really bulls! Lol! Just a saying.
doug.sekula
January 17, 2014 – 10:40 am
Then rolling it into FB earnings.
JeffDaniel
January 17, 2014 – 10:43 am
When Tim Cook speaks Apple Stock tanks. Apple will not top $700 again with Tim Cook at the helm.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 10:49 am
Todays dip in apple should be bought. It is a triple witching day. Lots of profit taking going on and frankly this is nice easy 1% pullback. On monday and tuesday we will get the apple announcement of how many iPhones were sold in china on its first weekend and the number is going to be good.
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:06 am
@chrismossey date/strike for GDX, can you share?
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:11 am
@jahmon: sure – trade confirm – here.Account Z31093017 Strategy Calls & Puts As of 01/17/2014 11:08am ET Underlying Last Bid Ask GDX $23.14 23.13 23.14 Leg Description Action Quantity Last Bid Ask Option Jun 21 2014 20 Call Buy to Open 4 $3.95 4.00 4.05
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:12 am
So June $20’s it looks like
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:13 am
yes, sorry – thought that would show more cleanly.
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:13 am
Would love any commentary as to why buying in the money instead of slightly out as Cody usually does?
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:14 am
very little premium. went I don’t think the move is going to be quick, I think it going to be a long slog. If it is quick these will pop and the implied volatility will rise giving it even more juice.
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:20 am
Thanks!
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:20 am
Although wouldn’t the premiums be even lower for $21 n$22 $23?
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:21 am
No, I calculated the 22’s at 7% vs 2.5% for my bid.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:34 am
Wishing I bought more TQNT
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:37 am
ok, thanks on GDX. Can’t buy more TQNT?
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 11:39 am
What are the odds Apple, FB and TQNT all smash it this quarter? My biggest holdings with options on all of them…
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:46 am
so goes apple so goes tqnt. FB – its own thing. With that said I am long all three and only adding on weakness and not cutting into earnings.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 11:46 am
Charts in all three are very good and the fundamentals are there as well.
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 12:20 pm
Anyone adding ZNGA? I’m down 10% on my purchases over the last couple of months when I bought around 4 after selling higher…
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 12:21 pm
Not me, I don’t believe in the company.
satishask
January 17, 2014 – 12:38 pm
ZNGA sucks
rjr
January 17, 2014 – 12:43 pm
what names are on people’s Shopping List for the next correction?
jake4882
January 17, 2014 – 12:50 pm
@chrismossey: What is the benefit of owning GDXJ in addition to GDX (if any) besides further diversification?
jake4882
January 17, 2014 – 12:51 pm
@chrismossey: FYI I just dipped my first toe in GDX
Turtle108
January 17, 2014 – 1:13 pm
@jake4882: good to hear ! IMO- you will get more bang for your buck from GDXJ- it’s filled with mrs waiting to be taken over- they will explode IF IF IF gold continues its run- it’s always good to have a basket- look at SLW too- silver may outperform gold-
Turtle108
January 17, 2014 – 1:14 pm
look today at some of the jrs- RIOM- MUX- SGR.to MDW ANV – I own them all, true confession
JeffDaniel
January 17, 2014 – 1:31 pm
@chrismossey: Where do you see Apple before and after earnings on Jan. 27?
jake4882
January 17, 2014 – 1:31 pm
@Turtle108: Thanks for clarifying!
JeffDaniel
January 17, 2014 – 1:32 pm
Poor retail numbers point to a stronger Amazon. See Amazon rising into Jan. 30 earnings.
MikeM
January 17, 2014 – 1:56 pm
@jahmon: I sold out of my ZNGA common a couple weeks ago and I think it continues sideways here for now or goes lower. Thus, I am not adding here.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 2:11 pm
@JeffDaniel: Historically apple runs up into earnings and tacks on 5+ % with a good report.. My guess is 585-605 and I am set up now to play the earnings in that manner.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 2:15 pm
I have added to feb 22 555 calls today and to both the april 19 600 and july 19 600 calls. 2 additional contracts in each.
George Mtz
January 17, 2014 – 2:17 pm
Cody: What do you think abut purchsing Best Buy Common after yesterdays and todays slump?
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 2:18 pm
stay away from that. What is the catalyst?
George Mtz
January 17, 2014 – 2:29 pm
Well Best Buy is Best Buy and they do have a great brand. I sell to them in Mexico and they are expecting a strong year because of the world cup. Its already down 30%, will stay away but please run some numbers as I think its a good opportunity for long 8 to 12 month investment!
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 2:33 pm
@George Mtz: I certainly do not know it well enough but the chart looks like it could a lot lower. It rose so fast in the year. Looks like there is a little support at 22 then 16 then 12. Gotta see it settle out. There just seems to be better plays right now in a good earnings season.
George Mtz
January 17, 2014 – 2:35 pm
ok, thanks!
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 2:41 pm
Congratulations, Cody!!!
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 2:42 pm
@jahmon: did they have the baby?
jahmon
January 17, 2014 – 2:43 pm
Yes, new note on the latest news board
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 2:44 pm
Congratulations Cody!
George Mtz
January 17, 2014 – 2:46 pm
Congratulations Cody! My Best Wishes for your new born!
indiasilver
January 17, 2014 – 3:34 pm
Anyone buying INTC here?
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 3:43 pm
adding either to my feb 22 555 calls or to the weekly 545 call on apple in the last 10 minutes.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 3:49 pm
apple is pinned at 540.
fathead
January 17, 2014 – 3:52 pm
“apple is pinned at 540.”what does that mean?
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 3:53 pm
As many calls and puts being sold at that price point which forces the stock to that level.
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 3:53 pm
expiration day.
fathead
January 17, 2014 – 4:05 pm
i see. thx for the clarification
chrismossey
January 17, 2014 – 4:06 pm
It is already up after hours. weird phenomena
jake4882
January 17, 2014 – 4:37 pm
@chrismossey: I understand the OI max pain theory but there were the 550’s had much higher put and call OI and volume, shouldn’t it have pinned there? What am I missing?
Susan
January 17, 2014 – 5:55 pm
Congratulations Cody, and wishes for all good things for you and your family.
Mars
January 17, 2014 – 7:17 pm
Cody, Congratulations to you and your family as you embark on a new adventure.
JeffDaniel
January 18, 2014 – 2:54 am
Cody,
JeffDaniel
January 18, 2014 – 2:54 am
Cody,Congratulations on your new baby girl.
JeffDaniel
January 18, 2014 – 2:56 am
@msamuels2000: Intel will be fine. You have a leap,Intel will recover
carl
January 20, 2014 – 8:28 am
@cody Does Intel have a good shot in the mobile chip business?
msamuels2000
January 20, 2014 – 10:24 am
@carl: My engineer contacts in the mobile industry were initially impressed with the best of breed low power consumption of the Intel chipsets for mobile which is a really big deal. It’s been a while since I followed up so I need to get an update. Specs and performance are two different things but the direction they were heading was a good one.
carl
January 20, 2014 – 8:41 pm
@msamuels2000 If they really have a good shot at mobile then this is the time to put some chips on the table.
drefleury
January 21, 2014 – 9:30 am
The concept of customization has emerged as the market direction for various sectors. What other areas of the world can be customized? Think Pandora, Fast food, car features, electricity acquisition….
drefleury
January 21, 2014 – 9:38 am
Is this a good entry for 3D?
drefleury
January 21, 2014 – 9:38 am
I sold up in the mid 90s
Jeffhok1970
January 21, 2014 – 11:13 am
@drefleury: I have been buy DDD at closing after three down days and it has worked well. The problem with my method is there have not been many triple down days. I am going to buy some common today and HOPE for another sell off tomorrow. I am confident I will make money buying tomorrow (if it is a down day). long winded sorry
msamuels2000
January 21, 2014 – 11:34 am
Anyone making a move on CREE ahead of earnings? Disclosure: trimmed 1/2 and banked profits
jakef1111
January 21, 2014 – 11:44 am
@cody congrats on never sleeping again…. Is it time to think of shorting tsla again
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 12:54 pm
DDD is a buy from 80-82 at its 50 day in fwiw imo.
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 12:55 pm
apple is breaking on above average volume and was the receipient of huge call buying on Friday.
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 12:58 pm
Actually, I am really rooting for DDD to get to 80 and change. If that holds it will be a nice trade. If it does not – the 200 day is at $56. This would be a gift imo.
drefleury
January 21, 2014 – 1:29 pm
@Jeffhok1970: @chrismossey:
drefleury
January 21, 2014 – 1:29 pm
Yeah, I’m tranching in at here, and will look for more on a drop
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 1:50 pm
Seems like a good play.
TL15
January 21, 2014 – 2:54 pm
For anyone that has any thoughts or advice…GDX has been in a slump for many months now and it’s beginning to creep up, should this be seen as a possible breakout? Do you think that miners will continue to slump and possibly reach new lows?
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 2:56 pm
@TL15: eryba1 has been buying, I have added it as well. The miners are rallying a bit here.
TL15
January 21, 2014 – 3:04 pm
@chrismossey, thanks for the reply, suppose I should have looked through the archive first. I went back and read through all of your guys’ previous conversations and there was a lot of good info that helped me out.
TL15
January 21, 2014 – 3:06 pm
Does anyone foresee Cody’s prediction of a 5 – 10% pullback coming true in the next couple weeks?
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 3:07 pm
Is anyone really going to answer that question?
TL15
January 21, 2014 – 3:10 pm
guess you can’t really answer it
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 3:12 pm
bottom line if you have some gold, cash on hand to buy more on dips and perhaps a short or two. you will be fine.
TL15
January 21, 2014 – 3:12 pm
thank you
jakef1111
January 21, 2014 – 4:05 pm
@TL15: seasonally we are heading into the strongest part for gains jan-end of may… I personally am positioning like that but keeping a close stop loss and looking for ops to short
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 4:38 pm
I am looking for good shorts now.
msamuels2000
January 21, 2014 – 4:40 pm
@chrismossey: BBRY way over bought right now but you would be fighting the momentum brought on by short covering. I’ll be gambling on some puts right before the next ER
msamuels2000
January 21, 2014 – 4:43 pm
CREE up 5% after hours on ER profit beat.
carl
January 21, 2014 – 5:09 pm
@drefleury Why is DDD tumbling? Do you think that it is just a pullback or is there something more serious here?
chrismossey
January 21, 2014 – 5:09 pm
@msamuels2000: when is the ER report.
Banjoman
January 21, 2014 – 5:13 pm
@carl DDD got an analyst downgrade this morning
msamuels2000
January 21, 2014 – 5:27 pm
@chrismossey: next ER is not until late march. I’m going to let it run a bit before I bite
jahmon
January 21, 2014 – 10:37 pm
@chrismossey I took Pandora in the shorts…
carl
January 22, 2014 – 8:57 am
@banjoman I just sold half of my DDD to preserve half of my profits in case the guy is right. Maybe the tumbling before earnings was a sense that DDD had over-run its real value.
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 9:38 am
ddd – is pretty oversold short term, look for a bit of a bounce. fwiw – I am going to nibble on 150 shares and see how behaves.
carl
January 22, 2014 – 9:59 am
@chrismoney Long term it is a good buy. I am just being extra cautious. I rode aapl down from 700 to below 500 because I was blinded by love of company. Now I take profits.
Jeffhok1970
January 22, 2014 – 10:13 am
In the WTF category – I bought a few CREE Mar options yesterday. Bought the 65 for $4.00 and 67.50 for $3.00. Totally expected to wake up this morning and ring the cash register. Didn’t expect to retire off the trade but surely expected some profits. Stock is up 2% Nope, both options are down. Obviously I missed something on the pricing and a much bigger move was expected. At least I have a couple months for CREE to go up. Strange
jahmon
January 22, 2014 – 10:25 am
@jeffhok1970 look again, I bet they are up now. I saw the same thing early. Just bumped up.
rkumar
January 22, 2014 – 10:45 am
any reason aaple rallying?
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 11:25 am
Icahn tweeting he is still buying and now has over a 3b stake.
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 11:26 am
It should rally pretty well into earnings. Up to 572 and then great earnings should take it through that stubborn resistance level.
Jeffhok1970
January 22, 2014 – 11:26 am
@jahmon: slowly moving in the right direction. I should have doubled down this morning. I thought about it but I found it too hard to pull the trigger. Those tough trades are always the best. Strange day in the CREE options pit.
Olivepetunia
January 22, 2014 – 11:28 am
@Jeffhok1970: options. In volatile stocks are very often hugely inflated in the expiration following earnings. Look at FB or AAPL this week compared to following weeks. Prices will deflate after er; You need a bigger move to come out ahead.
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 11:30 am
@Olivepetunia: trade them and buy them back a week later when the implied volatility has been drained.
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 11:31 am
someone was asking about buying GDX the other day. With this minor profit taking day it presents a nice little entry point.
Olivepetunia
January 22, 2014 – 11:36 am
@chrismossey: I wasn’t long CREE options; I did covered write. Bot CREE in Nov and sold Jan 24 $65.5s last week.
jahmon
January 22, 2014 – 12:04 pm
Anyone buying VIX calls? If so, details? I have one tranche of April $15’s
jahmon
January 22, 2014 – 12:14 pm
Would love to get some feedback on an Apple call position. I have a few July $650’s that are about 40% under water. Thoughts on holding as opposed to rolling to $600’s or ?
carl
January 22, 2014 – 1:41 pm
@chrismossey Where do you think gdx is going in the next 5-6 months? Mostly up or mostly down or a wobble?
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 1:47 pm
@carl: Chart looks like it could go to 26-30 with only a little resistance at $26 or so. I like in the money calls out in april/may say the $20 dollar strike for plays like this.
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 2:13 pm
@jahmon: good question. I have july 600’s – performing well on up moves. I also have the jan 750’s that don’t budge much. You will get more pop out of the 600’s.
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 2:22 pm
@carl: I bought march 20’s for 3.30 today gdx. Ten contracts. My goal is trade where I make $1k. 33% gain. I will sell the whole thing there and buy the next pull back.
Vash
January 22, 2014 – 3:33 pm
Anyone on NFLX / FIO ?
Vash
January 22, 2014 – 3:33 pm
they are reporting tonight ?
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 3:49 pm
I have gotten so burned by nflx and fio that I won’t touch them.
jakef1111
January 22, 2014 – 4:34 pm
@chrismossey: man i know the feeling i bought some way out of the money puts and of course it goes 50pts the other way hopefully all these good reports mean good news for all our positions… I think we have a big rally till the end march
chrismossey
January 22, 2014 – 5:41 pm
nflx up big, fio has not moved. My FFIV position is up big on earnings. Let the fun begin.
