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Let’s get started early here. Ask me anything for the next hour. Q. Cody, if the USA turn out to be Italy or worse which is probable, I imagine the market will have a bid negative reaction to full hospitals and the terrible stories, no? A. Probably, but it
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Another day, another big move in the markets. At least initially to the higher side. I’m sticking with the game plan, doing a little trimming and reshorting some indices to keep hedged. I’m writing up a bunch of analysis about what we should expect for the economy and
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Before the Kurzweil Rate of Change sped things up, here are the generally accepted definitions an economic recession vs. an economic depression: A recession is the contraction phase of the business cycle. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) describes it this way: ‘A recession is a period of decline
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These markets have been historically crazy for the last month. That’s just a fact. Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Q. Some of our stocks are down below our original basis. Wouldn’t it be better for us to trade with the
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It’s a strange new world we find ourselves in. Prayers for everybody affected by the Coronavirus, which at this point, is all of us. This is a human tragedy first. But my job… Look, the US and the whole world are already in a major recession. Revenues at companies
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I know that governments’ actions are almost always incompetent, so I’m not terribly surprised that the government has been totally incompetent in how it has approached the coronavirus breakout, but it is always surprising the ways in which they mess something up. In this case, wouldn’t it have
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Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Be careful out there, but don’t panic. Q. Hey Cody, I agree with your overall take here but I think the concern for many is that it feels like covid 19 wont ebb and get solved
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Was it just yesterday that I wrote: “I’m going to trim down a little bit of my longs into this huge rally and add a few more index puts and rebuild the index shorts a bit when the market rallies like it did today.” Well, this morning, the markets
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Holy crap, how about that move off the bottoms when we were buying Friday??? The extreme moves in the markets and stock prices and economic activities lately remind me to use my theory of my Kurzweil Singularity Rate of Change which I define as: What happens if it all works
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Quite a rebound from this morning’s panicky lows where we were buying/nibbling/covering, but the week isn’t over yet, is it? Be careful out there. Here’s the transcript from this week’s Live Q&A Chat. Q. Cody: what are the chances we slide into
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I had two main takeaways from the panel I hosted at the CFA Austin annual dinner where the topic was The US and China: When Two Global Economies Collide: 1. Nobody on the panel seemed to be very concerned about COVID-19 and the potential longer-term market/economic ramifications that might
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Happy President’s Day. Apple says coronavirus effects will cause revenues to fall short of guidance That’s not good news, but we were quite preparing for this weren’t we? Also, we’ll have to see just how big the market reaction will be to this news tomorrow. Futures