The near-term market outlook and how our playbook fits from here…

So yeah, like I said in the last post, I’m proudly sitting on my hands right now and letting our positions play out as we wait for our next set of pitches.  That doesn’t mean that I don’t have a playbook and expectations about how this market turmoil will play itself out and how we can try to profit on that too of course.  So let’s talk about the near-term market outlook and see how our playbook fits from here.There’s little question that Greece and the Euro are facing their comeupance.  Long-time readers know that I’ve been saying that the stupid “sovereign bailouts” were nothing more than one last huge redistribution of wealth from the taxpayers and labor to the big banks who stupidly held worthless debt from stupid, corrupt governments like Greece.  And that I’ve long said that there’s nothing those bailouts can do from stopping the bleeding and eventual demise of the Euro if not the wider European Union to boot.And I’ve also explained over and over how none of that matters in the long-run to any of our stocks.  Apple’s market cap is nearly 50% bigger than the entire Greek economy — last time I wrote that, several months ago, they were about the same size.  Furthermore, the broader stock markets have been down and global economic growth has been stagnant for the last ten years or so…ever since the advent of the Euro and the EU as an economic single being.  Before the EU, global economic growth had been steady and upward and the markets had been been returning 10% per year for decades.  So in the intermediate and long run, I think the demise of the Euro, Greece’s corrupt government and the EU as a single economic being is actually extremely bullish for the economy and the markets.But in the near-term, concerns about the demise of the Euro, Greece and the EU itself are likely to keep the worry and handwringing at full blast.  We’re certainly closer to a final solution to these sovereign crises and the bailouts that had been been forced down the world’s throats along with them.  And when that final acceptance of the pain involved in all these losses that will never be repaid are finally acknowledged and accepted, we’re probably going to be putting in a bottom in the markets as the reality will finally match the fear.  And that means, I’d expect some big upside once we get there.  But I remain leery of trying to game when and how the politicians who are running these trillion dollar bank welfare programs are finally going to accept that reality instead of continually stoking more fear.So feet to fire, here’s what I’d say the near-term market outlook is:  We’ll bounce between 10,900 and 11,600 on the DJIA for the next couple weeks or so with more of this volatility, though less volatility than we’ve been seeing of late.  Eventually, we’ll get one final “The Euro currency is doomed!” panic, perhaps taking us under the recent 10,800 lows.  And that will be a great time to buy.So the upshot of my trading stance here would be to continue to let our upside work for us and I’ll likely be looking to trim back a position or two if we really rally hard before we get another panic.  And likewise, I’ll be looking to add to existing positions and perhaps even add another name or two if we do get another panic.Anytime I talk near-term market outlook, I want to be clear — if I truly thought I could game such near-term action, I would. But what I do know is that if we remain flexible and objective, we can position ourselves to benefit, profit and avoid losses no matter what happens to the markets.  And I do believe that our fundamental analysis of these sectors and stocks we are long and short will drive these stocks in the long-run no matter what happens to Greece’s government’s ability to loot in the name of bankers in the next few weeks.