The Robotics Revolution App, CBRS, PLTR, SHOP, a Crystal Ball, and More

Q. Cody, I know you have been overall pretty positive, but also saying that there are some areas of froth. Where do you see that froth now? it feels like we have seen a very fast crash in a lot of names. For eg Arm is now down 40% over the last 3 weeks. We see the weakness in SpaceX, the quantum stocks are way down, The sox ex NVDA is down around 17% from highs. the "other" space stocks are down around 40-50% from where they were a couple of days before the SpaceX ipo..just to name a few of the declines..thoughts?

A. Semi stock are probably still a little frothy and most semi stocks not named Nvidia are probably needing a little rest and/or further sell offs. I like NVDA here right now though. Space stocks not named SpaceX are probably still going to fall a lot farther because the valuations are insane despite each of them falling 40-70% since they peaked right before the SPCX IPO. Quantum stocks not named Google or Nvidia are probably all frauds as I've been saying for years now and I think most every quantum stock pureplay is headed to penny stock status at best. There's a lot of froth in the "AI Datacenter Bottleneck" names and in a lot of AI-related energy names still too.

Q. Hey Cody. Please pull out the crystal ball and tell us what the next 1, 3, 6 months performance will look like for our names.

A. Well, first of all, each name will trade somewhat independently from the others as our portfolio, despite being all tech-related names, is certainly not a monolith. I'm not a trader per se and I don't try to game 1 month or 3 month or even 6 month moves in the markets. I think SpaceX and Cerebras might be the strongest performers over the next six months. Semiconductor stocks that are not named Nvidia might need a 1-6 month pause and/or drift lower. Sorry I can't be of more help on a question like this.

Q. Can you share with us roughly what are your top 5 largest holdings, by % of account? (either currently or what you plan on being as you scale into new positions)

A. No, I can't share that kind of detail and it's not really helpful for you even if I did because each of us has a different goal with our money, different risk tolerance, different circumstances in life, different needs and wants, etc. I will tell you that our largest five positions in our long-only fund that launched about year and a half ago are, in alphabetical order: GOOG, META, NVDA, PLTR, TSLA.

Q. Hi @Cody didn’t see PLTR and SHOP in the list of the stocks you just sent.

A. Sorry about that, we meant to have all of our positions in there. For the record, I'd rate PLTR an 8+/10 right now and would buy more below $110. I'd rate SHOP an 7+/10 right now and would buy more below $110 also. Rock on.

Q. Do you think its better to get out of crwv and go into spcx, or generally better to split the eggs into multiple baskets?

A. I'm struggling to hold onto CRWV too but I'm giving it through this quarter's earnings report. I'm invested in only technology which means I'm not splitting my eggs across very many baskets. And I'm also running a relatively concentrated portfolio of 20 names or less most of the time, which means I'm not splitting my eggs across very many baskets. But yes, I do think you have to diversify at least a little bit. That said, I do ask my team all the time: This stock or that stock. And we sometimes end up selling one name to buy another if the risk/reward tells us too as we have limited capital and have to pick and choose just 20 names or so out of the 10,000s of names we could invest in.

Q. Thank you for the excellent write up on Cerebras and the shifting market as memory becomes a significant cost to inferencing. Your analysis is very compelling, seems like you are skating to where the puck will be. NVDA now represents a decent percentage of my portfolio. As I build into a position in CBRS, would you recommend balancing between NVDA and CBRS (trimming some NVDA to build CBRS) or holding NVDA as the dominate platform for training and adding CBRS as the future of inferencing from other funds?

A. To be clear, I never recommend anything – I'm just telling you what I'm doing. I haven't sold a share of NVDA to buy CBRS and don't plan to at these prices.

Q. Are you increasing your position in CBRS today?

A. Yes, we nibbled a little bit more of it in each of the funds today. I'm building this name up somewhat aggressively, but I am only about 1/2 the way through building it up at this point. Buying on weakness, chilling on spikes.

Q. Hi Cody, thanks for all your insight, I appreciate you taking the time to help us learn. What companies have you identified that would be best to invest if interested in tendon-driven actuation systems, force/torque sensors, or advanced fiber materials? Are there more compelling parts of the humanoid you are focused on instead?

A. We are building an interactive web app to help us figure out what each company in The Robotics Revolution is doing and where it fits, etc. It's a work in progress but I'm happy to share what we've built so far https://robotics-revolution-map-472214575164.us-west1.run.app/ If the web app stops working for you while you're on it, it's probably because it ran out of compute. Did I mention that there's about 10x more demand for compute than supply? That's what I'm talking about.

Q. Cody, what about nibbling arm? Or VPG?

A. I can think of worse ideas but I'm not nibbling any of each yet. We trimmed each at various points in the last couple months when they each went vertically through the roof and they are still up a huge amount from our initial purchases. Chillin' on 'em for now.

Q. What's your level of interest in Apptronik, Figure AI & Dyna Robotics in the private market?

A. I think Apptronik is interesting, Dyna somewhat interesting and Figure AI might be a fraud.

Q. Cody, have you looked at all at Agility Robotics which is doing a SPAC deal with CCXI for a robotics idea? Thank you.

A. Well, I very much think that there will be many, let's say dozens, of good publicly-traded Robotics Revolution companies in coming years. I'm less certain that this company, which is lead by a CEO that destroyed over a billion dollars of investor capital at her last job (a startup called Magic Leap) will be one of those successful Robotics Revolution stocks. We can probably use the last five years of The Space Revolution playbook for the next five years of The Robotics Revolution playbook. There will be a lot of wannabes coming public and very few will actually be long-term winners that we'd want to own forever. If/when the Optimus Robot starts doing real work in the real world, the hype around Robot stocks will be like the hype was around Space stocks when SpaceX's IPO was coming. That's probably for someone else to try to game and trade though. I'll focus on getting us into the BEST Robotics stocks and holding them forever (we already own a handful of what will be the best Robotics stocks already, of course).

Q. Cody, you seemed pretty short term bullish on TSLA couple weeks ago, was it based on news/leaks or a gut feeling? Thanks.

A. Neither, really. It was based on my analysis, my use of FSD and seeing how incredibly close it is to being 99.999% safe (and already at least 10x better/safer at driving than I have ever been), and the timeline I expect for Optimus Robot rollout. Also, I thought deliveries would be great (they were) and that earnings will be stronger than expected (we'll find out next week).

Q. Cody, regarding CRWV, does the competition from META (selling excess AI compute capacity) concern you as much as it does a lot of analysts? seems to be adding to the concern in addition to the capex spending & leveraging... ; Does the fact that NVDA is heavily invested in CRWV help alleviate concerns? Thx for the insight!

A. I have a lot of concerns about Coreweave, but mostly I'm concerned about the company not having executed well for the last two quarters. The demand for AI compute is easily 10x what the supply is right now and both Coreweave and Meta are doing everything they can to build more compute but it will be years before the supply of compute meets the demand for compute. Coreweave is a pureplay on that demand for compute but they have to execute. No, I don't care that Nvidia is an investor in Coreweave because Nvidia has kicked of so many insane cash flow for the last three years that they have thrown it at literally scores of companies, both private and public.

Q. Any updates on your feel of ZS? (I think you said you were updating analysis for it...?)

A. I'm trying to wrap my head around how Zscaler might be a nice beneficiary of The Robotics Revolution. Sitting tight with it for now.

Q. Do you think its time for NVDA to sell some of its investments? I am thinking that they would not want to do that too much as it would indicate a loss of faith in parts of the AI build out.

A. Yeah, no, I don't think NVDA should or would selling any of its investments yet. They're probably planning on owning most of those investments they made in smaller AI companies (which is almost all companies, because there's only like five companies on the planet that are more as large as Nvidia) for many, many years to come and use the ownership in those companies as leverage if/when they need to.

Q. Cody - do you have any thought on IBM?

A. IBM? I'm still saying it's something I would not want to own and would probably still rather be short than long that thing. Here's an example of what I've said about IBM in the past... and nothing's changed for it except maybe it's in an even worse position to try to capitalize on The AI Revolution: February 2026: "There are a lot of tech companies that appear well-positioned to benefit with AI, but if they don’t integrate it quickly enough, they too will find themselves overtaken by faster-moving rivals. Unfortunately, it’s difficult to identify which seemingly well-positioned companies are integrating AI well or poorly until after the fact. Again, France looked well-prepared to fight Germany until it didn’t. In this category, I’d put a lot of the old, behemoth, legacy software firms like IBM, SAP, Oracle, and Microsoft (with respect to its Windows/Office products). I simply doubt that they can move fast enough to keep up with their AI-native competitors." I just went and searched TradingWithCody.com for "IBM" and almost every time I have mentioned IBM, I'm either outright bashing it or I'm answering a question about what my favorite shorts are and IBM is usually one of them. I've no position in it right now.

Q. Do you think IBM is a buy after the drop today.

A. No. See my prior answer about IBM for more.

Q. Thoughts on LAC (lithium americas) and there 3 phase planning.

A. I never invest in commodity stocks like oil, energy, lithium, etc. I've been short LAC in years past. I have no position in it right now.

That's a wrap! Thank you for being a part of this community. I leave all with a few pictures of some of our pets from over the prior few days.

The first picture is at the vet's office. Bernice The Great Pyrenees (see what we did there?) needed a little procedure done and she climbed on that tiny chair to look out the window and ask me to get her out of there!