Thoughts on RIMM before its earnings report tonight…

Hey Blackberry, How you taste so sweet, Hey Blackberry, tell me what you see
Tell me is it interesting
Hey Blackberry pay some attention to me, Hey Blackberry look at my bumblebee
Hey Blackberry you know he never stings, And he only hums for me
I need some L-O-V-E-N to make me happy, You got to be L-U-C-K-Y to git
With a girl like Blackberry – The  Black Crowes

I got several questions like this today:

Hi, I wanted to pass on a message to Cody for his take on RIMM earnings tonight. Does he think there is any opportunity for a play here? Thanks.

So let’s address that question right quickly. No, I don’t think there’s any opportunity for a play in RIMM’s earnings tonight.   Expectations have certainly been lowered, as have estimates for RIMM repeatedly throughout 2011. But that doesn’t mean those expectations and estimates are low enough yet.  RIMM’s tablet, the Playbook, is a joke and they’re still trying to sell it at a premium to the iPad. Idiots. I don’t want to invest and bet on idiots. As far as shorting the stock, I probably wouldn’t short this thing before earnings either simply because if the company manages to stuff the channel well enough they might actually beat and try to pretend (and convince themselves) that the demand will clear out the inventories as consumers finally come around to Blackberry’s latest products.  Ha, yeah right.  Pent up demand for a Blackberry?  For a Blackberry Playbook tablet?  I don’t think I’d use a Playbook if they gave one to me.

I wouldn’t mess with Blackberry at these levels, though I might look to re-short it (It was a short in our model portfolio during its collapse from above $100 to the $40s when we covered it) if it can run back into the $40s anytime soon.  But other than that, let Blackberry eat itself.