Today’s chat: Earnings and trading updates for RVBD, AAPL, AMZN, NFLX and much more

Here’s the transcript of today’s chat. See you next week at 2pm EST at for more Q&A where you can ask me anything.

Q: Cody, I am interested in your RVBD strategy prior to close going into earnings announcement.
A: Riverbed’s up tonight for earnings and as I’d said last week, my thinking is that anything but a disastrous report is likely priced in down here in the $20s and more than priced in below $20. I’m still long those calls I bought a few weeks ago when it was indeed down near $20 along with some of the common core position. Just holding it all for now.

Q: Cody, does the Gerald Celente interview change your Short on SLV? And would you now consider a Long position in GLD ?
A: Gerald’s commentary about selling gold and buying silver was very challenging to our thesis, and I’m not doing anything with the silver short right now. Not because of what Gerald said, per se, as I wasn’t looking to do anything with silver right now anyway after we had made those nice trading gains shorting it much higher earlier this year.

Q: Would you buy RVBD calls as earnings play?
A: I’d tell you if I were buying RVBD calls as an earnings play and I’m not, so take that for what it’s worth.

Q: Hi, any thoughts about MSFT?
A: I like MSFT into earnings and I like it as a long-term investment for a double or so in the next five years. I think the XBOX numbers and Ballmer blowing hard about upcoming Windows mobile launches from Nokia et al, and some commentary about how Amazon’s big bet on Android is forcing Dell and others to look at Windows for their next gen tablets are likely catalysts in the earnings call. A miss because of PC stagnation is possible though. Tread lightly, but I’d rather be long than short into MSFT tomorrow night.

Q: Is anyone trading TKLC?
A: TKLC?! That’s a blast from my past. I made some decent money owning that stock a couple times in the past, but I haven’t looked at it in a while. Will dig into it and get back to you if I like it.

Q:What are your thoughts on Cypress going into earnings Cody?
A: Cypress is, like Nuance, a bit TOO volatile and a bit too small-cappish in its trading action for me to use it very often as an earnings play. I like CY as a long-term investment a whole lot regardless of what happens to it this quarter.

Q: Hello Cody! How do you see FSLR for a short before its earnings and in the light of its descent in July? Thank you and please write about your OWS experiences.
A: I do think FSLR and just about every single other alternative energy company out there is a great short candidate. Call them Solyndra-lites, perhaps! Regardless, these companies’ business models tend to work only if heavily subsidized with welfare funds that are hard to come by these days and are likely to be cut with a vengeance in coming years. That said, I have no idea about how to trade FLSR into its earnings tomorrow. I’m talking about it only as a long-term short concept.

Q: Thank you for your answers, and for the precious insights too, Cody! Do you think Apple still has some downward motion?
A: Yes, as noted last night in my posts after Apple’s reports, I’m worried there’s more downside, say 10-15% or so and perhaps a trading range between here and there for the next little while in AAPL.

Q: I have just added EBAY.
Q: I would like to know about EBAY as well.
A: EBAY’s just not growing organically enough for me to like it much. It just don’t light my fire.

Q: Any earnings play on WYNN?
A: I got nothing on WYNN for you into earnings.

Q: Any views on FFIV?
A: FFIV is in much the same position as RVBD both in the market place and in the stock market.

Q: And BK is still a long term short play in your thinking, Cody?
A: Yes, BK is still very much a litigation-target-happy long-term short in my book.

Q: Cody when is GOOG a good buy??
A: I think GOOG is a buy right now but it’s already still one of my very largest positions.

Q: Thanks again for your great service Cody!! Have you heard any reason why Marvel is getting beaten up so bad today (-6.28%)?
A: No word on MRVL. Lots of semi companies reported last night and will report tonight, and that might have MRVL spooked or a bear leaning on a MRVL short.

Q: Any thoughts on RHT? Thanks for that GS call. Got in and out!
A: RHT is on fire and near highs, and I’m frankly disappointed that I don’t own it. It’s one that I’ve always had a hard time getting a “feel” for and I just don’t trade it much for that reason alone.

Q: Cody I appreciate all your advice–you are the man! I think a few of us are looking for your take on AMZN.
A: AMZN’s tough today. It’s set up to trade a lot like Apple is though. Both are near their all-time highs, both are growing great still, but both disappointed the Street yesterday. I like AMZN for a long-term investment as long-time readers know, but I’m not sure how to trade it for the near-term now that the quarter is over. The next big catalyst will be how big its tablet sales roll out is. I’d bet it’s huge. So I’d rather be long than short AMZN right now, that’s for sure.

Q: Cody, I have a question about the FEDs’ POMO (Permanent Open Market Operations) program. One thing I have observed is whenever there is low volume in the market and a POMO purchase date for FED the market rallies like crazy, like yesterday. The next dates for POMO are the 21st, 24th, 25th, and the 27th. Is my assessment on this correct or am I missing on some intricacies here?
A: Whoa, that is pretty interesting, if not some very DEEP thinking there about POMOFED and FEDPOMO. I’d need to read a whole paper on that to grasp what you’re asking though, much less to get to a point where I’d feel comfortable telling you whether it’s a genius observation or meaningless distraction, you know?

Q: INTC! Do you like it?
A: Yes, I’d answered a question in chat yesterday saying that I liked INTC as a long play into its earnings report, and long-time readers know that I definitely like INTC for an investment over the next five to ten years.

Q: If you were to add to a short position like BK, you would let us subscribers know, right Cody?
A: BK’s looking tempting as a place to build my short-weighting in the portfolio, especially over $20 a share. And yes, I’d definitely tell you guys if and when I’m going to add BK.

Q: Cody, you are the bomb =D. What is your take for SNDK tomorrow? One of your favorites?
A: Ah, the SanDisk. I like SanDisk still very much at these levels and any kind of a good quarter or good news about pricing and demand trends for flash storage, which is being built into ever-more form factors of course, is likely to pop the stock. It’s one of my biggest positions and I’ve got lots of calls that I bought lower that are now nicely profitable so I do trim it to keep it from being too out of control in size, but this one’s a big favorite of mine.

Q: Hi Cody–any advice on CSCO? I bought some 2013 $20 calls when CSCO was trading at $15 which are very much in the money now.
A: I trimmed some Cisco the other day because I too bought some calls when it was near $15 and they’re also now nicely profitable and continuing to get bigger in relation to the rest of my portfolio as the leverage they provide kicks in. I’m still very much long Cisco and think it could run to $20 if things aren’t awful when it reports next.

Q: You’ve talked SINA before–any thoughts on it now that it’s down to 83.85?
A: I like SINA down 70% off its highs. But I like BIDU better at any level.

Q: Zynga–what do you think? Thanks, Cody–excellent as usual!
A: Zynga, like LNKD, feels bubblicious to me. I’m leery of both at any level, but am glad they raised capital that will drive our app revolution investments.

Q: NFLX into earnings? Not sure when to move on NFLX. I would love to play NFLX. Waiting for a signal.
A: I like NFLX for a trade into earnings as long as its below $110 or so. Careful though, as I always remind everybody who bets on earnings reports as catalysts — TREAD LIGHTLY and don’t risk what you can’t lose! But yeah, I think NFLX is looking like a long-side trade while it’s near $100 right now.

Okay, that’s it guys! Thanks for another great Q&A and thanks for subscribing to Don’t forget that I’ve gotten you guys a free six-month trial to since you’re full members here on Just go sign up the same way on there that you did here and send us a note at–we’ll make sure you get your subscription rebated in full each month for the next six months. Thanks again and see you guys next week at the same time on the same bat channel.