Two earnings reports tonight to talk about
Two earnings trading thoughts into tonight’s round of reports.
1. Riverbed – The stock has been on an absolutely tear of late and is up 30% from recent lows and at new recent highs today. We’ve seen a pattern this earnings season of tech stocks that are near their highs getting hit, regardless of what they say in their reports, and I’m concerned that Riverbed could take a hit tonight. We’ve had lots of success with earnings trades overall throughout my career, — this earnings season, by the way, we’ve only written here and done a couple earnings trades — the FFIV calls earnings trade was a nice boost and last night’s Sandisk earnings trade was not. At any rate, my point is that while I still think Riverbed’s a great long-term play, I’m concerned it could get hit in tomorrow’s trading. I’m buying a couple RVBD puts to help hedge in case that’s what happens. I will still be net long overall and as an investor I would rather see the stock go up than down tomorrow, but this is why they call what I used to a “hedge fund”.
2. Broadvision – This company did a 1 for 25 split and a company called JIVE that does business software like Broadvision came public last month — and Broadvision has rallied from $7 to $44 and is right now today down 5% at $23. Broadvision was obviously a great trade at $7, but anybody who thinks that this company is going to suddenly turn their business around after years of declining revenues simply because a competitor came public…well, I highly doubt that Broadvision will be a double digit stock this time next year. I’m not sure that tonight will be the night that will freak out all these new BVSN longs, but I do think within six months this stock starts to collapse. I’m trying to borrow some BVSN shares to sell short since there are no options on this stock…yet. There aren’t any shares to borrow that my brokers are finding either…yet. But let’s put this one on our radar and I’ll be looking to borrow some shares starting today and on into the next few weeks and/or buying some BVSN puts if and when options for BVSN come available.
