Unemployment and stocks are not correlated at all
Well, unemployment is now only 15% higher than where Bush and Obama promised us it would go if they didn’t start the banking bailout bonanza that has taken the world by storm in 2008. Remember that? Both parties promised that unemployment would go close to 9% if they didn’t send banks trillions of dollars of welfare? How’d that work out?
Woohoo!
Anyway, let’s talk markets and trading. The markets are having a hard time getting much oomph into this rally so far today, but as you guys know I think a 2% or more spike would actually be more bearish than a steady rise on this macro economic. Here’s your thought of the day: In 1936, unemployment was at 18% and the DJIA went up 24% that year.
I sold the last of my AMR trade — overall I bought about a 1% position for 23 cent cost basis and sold them at an average of 38.5 cents a share for a 70% gain on a single trade in less than a week’s time. Now if we could only do that every week during a full year, we’d be up more than 100-fold by this time next year. We could turn $1 into $100 in just a few months. No problem, right?
For the record, we can’t and shouldn’t expect to make that kind of return on a quick trade very often, ok?
I’ll be back with a list of all my positions in a bit.
