Deja vu of a deja vu and earnings thoughts

A few things I want to share with you. First, a very insightful email from a subscribers in Italy. I love Italy and even wrote a whole series of articles about my love for Italy for the Financial Times a few years ago. But I digress. Here’s what Alberto had to say:

Hi Cody,

Greece 2010: Greece Must Show Budget Cuts to Get German Aid, Merkel Says

Spain 2012: Merkel Offers Spain No Respite as Debt Cuts Seen As Key
Worth to point out that Mrs Merkel is on election mode while Spain might emerge as the latest target of debt crisis.

Elections in the North Rhine-Westphalia region are set for 13 May.

I would expect a lot of “we won’t help you” and “you gotta cut your debt no matter how” rhetoric out of Mrs Merkel until elections are done.

And my educated guess is that European markets will get hit by all that before bouncing back.

Just my thoughts of course.

Greetings from Italy

Interesting thoughts on the politics and the timing behind the politics of the next EU bank bailout. Here’s a post I wrote back in February called Guess which headlines are from today and which are from two years ago:

Can you guess which of the following headlines are from this morning and which are from 2010?

  1. Ministers Seek Vote in Athens
  2. Euro Falls on Greece Fears
  3. Greek drama sinks stocks
  4. Greece debt crisis tests European Union, US stocks
  5. Stocks, Euro Slide on European Debt Concern
  6. Fears of Euro debt contagion send stocks lower

(Answers: 1-3 are from today’s headlines. 4-6 are all from 2010. Seriously.)

And then here’s an earnings gamble idea for the more brave of you out there. Don’t play with big money on any pre-earnings gamble trades, ok?

Calmdaw: April 17, 2012 – 9:51 am
@Cody – are you expecting good numbers from CREE? I saw your 50% allocation in the fantasy earnings game? Pretty heavy allocation, lol
CODY: April 17, 2012 – 10:46 am@calmdaw, Yea, I expect CREE will report good #s and talk up the future. That said, let’s be real about the fact that the Earnings Fantasy Game to which you refer is a Fantasy Game and not real money. And I’m forced to pick at least 3 earnings reports a week during the game and you have to go heavy in a couple to have any chance of actually winning the Game. But it’s a Game. I’m not going to chase CREE at 52-week highs into a weak tech market into earnings with my own hard-earned capital.

Markets are a rockin’ this morning. Don’t get greedy.